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By Bulldog Drummond
By way of an aside from all the heavy stuff of late about the corruption of the PGMO – absolutely vital to comment on it of course, but we also need something a little more light-hearted sometimes – we have tried to find a way of predicting the scores in games for next weekend for the clubs near the top of the league.
We started with the position of each club – but not the position in the league overall. Instead we took the home or away position of each club depending on the game being played next weekend. So in what follows Liverpool are fourth in the league on home form, at home to Everton who are 15th in the league on away form
- Liverpool v Everton = 4th v 15th.
- Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion = 5th v 9th
- Chelsea v Arsenal = 13th v 2nd
- Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham = 7th v 10th
The home form against away form in each case suggests a home win for Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham, and an away win for Arsenal.
Now this approach is biased because in its almighty wisdom the Premier League fixture chappies have given some clubs five home games and only three away so far, and indeed the reverse for others. Tottenham thus has only played three home games, but won them all. Arsenal have only played three away games but won them all.
So we need to go further and we’ve looked at the average number of goals scored by each team in their respective venue per game. Liverpool have scored nine goals at home in three games, so clearly have an average of three goals at home a game.
Here then are the results predictions based on average scores in the relevant venues…
Liverpool v Everton; an individual score per match of 3-2
Manchester City v Brighton; an individual score per match of 3-3
Chelsea v Arsenal; or an individual score per match of 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham; or an individual score per match of 2-1
So you can check my workings, here is the table thus far of home games for the four home clubs in this examination
And here is the table thus far for the four away clubs involved…
|9||Brighton and Hove Albion||3||2||0||1||8||8||0||6|
From this we can see that Arsenal for example is scoring on average two goals in each away game while Chelsea in the table before are scoring just one goal on average in each home game. So pulling this simple array of data together we can then see if we need to add in anything else to take account of circumstances….
Liverpool v Everton. 4th at home v 15th away. Average goals 3-2, Add an extra Liverpool goal to reflect their superior results so far; or take away one to reflect Everton’s poorer results, or both and we get either 4-2, or 3-1 or 4-1.
Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion. 5th in the league at home v 9th in the league away. Average goals 3-3. Add one for Manchester City to reflect their superior results so far and take one away from Brighton and we get 4-2. But fifth and ninth are positions that are close together so those extra goals might not accrue. So maybe 3-3 is right, except that referees like Manchester City so they might feel obliged to disallow a Brighton goal and it ends 3-2.
Chelsea v Arsenal. 13th in the league at home v 2nd in the league away. Average goals 1-2. Remove one from Chelsea to reflect their problems and add one to Arsenal who are flying away and we get 0-3. There is nothing in Chelsea’s results or Arsenal’s results to suggest anything other than an Arsenal win except the recognition that the referee might have his own ideas about this one.
Tottenham v Fulham. 7th at home v 10th away. On the basis of goals scored it is 2-1, and there’s nothing really to suggest it might be otherwise.
Therefore taking all this into account here’s the top of the league after the next round of games..
Of course I am publishing it now so that if the results are utterly different from this I can just forget about it, and hope you do too. But if any of these are right I shall be crowing for weeks to come. And might even try it again.
Anyway, it passed the time when there is no football of any consequence on for the next few days.
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