Chelsea v Arsenal: the augurs all look good for Arsenal







By Bulldog Drummond

There was a moment last season (19 October to be exact) when Chelsea looked to be doing rather well, sitting as they were in fourth place, just two points behind Tottenham  in third.


Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 10 9 0 1 24 10 14 27
2 Manchester City 11 8 2 1 36 11 25 26
3 Tottenham Hotspur 11 7 2 2 22 12 10 23
4 Chelsea 11 6 3 2 16 11 5 21

They maintained their challenge with a draw on 22 October 1-1 with Manchester United.  and got an away win on 25 October against Red Bull Salzburg.

Then it all went rather wrong, as in the next 17 league and cup games they won just three, going out of the FA Cup and League Cup in the process.  It was a run that defined their season which saw them miss relegation by just 10 points, while missing a Champions League spot by 27 points, and finish no less than 40 points and 50 goals scored, behind Arsenal.  It was quite a decline.   Here’s the end of season table extract


Team P W D L F A GD Pts
2 Arsenal 38 26 6 6 88 43 45 84
12 Chelsea 38 11 11 16 38 47 -9 44
18 Leicester City 38 9 7 22 51 68 -17 34

This season Chelsea are nine points behind Arsenal after eight games.  If things continue in the same vein through the campaign, Arsenal will end up 42 points ahead of Chelsea – so one better than last season, although this seems unlikely.  I mean, they can’t really collapse as they did last season, two seasons running.  Can they?



Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 8 6 2 0 18 8 10 20
2 Arsenal 8 6 2 0 16 6 10 20
11 Chelsea 8 3 2 3 11 7 4 11

Looking toward this weekend’s game, Arsenal come into it having played three away games, while Chelsea have already had four at home.  The comparative results show Arsenal getting three points per game while Chelsea are picking up one point for each game at their venue.  (Data from 11v11)  PPG = points per game.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts PPG
2 Arsenal away 3 3 0 0 6 0 6 9 3.0
13 Chelsea home 4 1 1 2 4 3 1 4 1.0


These figures are not too far away from last season’s grand averages.   Arsenal averaged 2.05 points per match away from home and Chelsea 0.6 points per match at home.


Team P W D L F A GD Pts PPG
1 Arsenal away 19 12 3 4 35 18 17 39 2.05
15 Chelsea home 19 6 7 6 20 19 1 25 0.6


But is Chelsea’s poor run of form at home down to the fact that they have played teams that are tough to beat.  Well, actually no.  They managed to beat Luton Town, as everyone does, but not Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa at what is interestingly still called “Stamford Bridge”.  No one, it seems wants to sponsor it.

The home games for Chelsea…


Date Match Result Score Competition
13 Aug 2023 Chelsea v Liverpool D 1-1 Premier League
25 Aug 2023 Chelsea v Luton Town W 3-0 Premier League
02 Sep 2023 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest L 0-1 Premier League
24 Sep 2023 Chelsea v Aston Villa L 0-1 Premier League


Perhaps we might also remember just what a dismal run Chelsea had at at the end of last season.   In their last 11 games in the Premier League, running from 1 April through to 28 May, Chelsea won just one – an away win at AFC Bournemouth.   They did draw with Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, but the remaining seven games were defeats. 

But we must remember, all runs come to an end.  So have Chelsea improved of late?

We are now far enough into the season to return to one of our favourite charts of recent campaigns, which did indeed tend to give us better forecasts than most other metrics we tried: we are back with “the last six games table” provided by group


Premier League Form (Last 6)
Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hots 6 5 1 0 14 6 +8 16
2 Arsenal 6 4 2 0 13 5 +8 14
3 Aston Villa 6 4 1 1 14 7 +7 13
4 Liverpool 6 4 1 1 14 7 +7 13
5 Manchester City 6 4 0 2 13 6 +7 12
6 Newcastle United 6 3 1 2 15 7 +8 10
7 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 9 3 +6 10


What we have found over the past couple of years is that the last six games table can be quite a decent indicator of what is going to happen.   That table above of course includes home and away games.   If we do a similar table for the last six Chelsea games at home and the last six Arsenal games away, we get this picture… and it is a much clearer prediction of an Arsenal victory.


Premier League Form (Home)
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Chelsea home 6 1 3 2 7 6 +1 6
2 Arsenal 6 4 0 2 9 5 +4 12


So on this season’s form, last season’s form, and home & away form, this is looking to be Arsenal’s match.   More information on this forthcoming match shortly.

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3 Replies to “Chelsea v Arsenal: the augurs all look good for Arsenal”

  1. Now just for chuckles and a reminder of how partisan the so-called press is, here is a (pathetic) sentence from the Guardian’s take on this week-end games :

    “Two expert away performances against Fulham and Burnley have raised hopes the west London club can make a push for the Champions League places , but they will be hoping that Saturday’s visit of Arsenal doesn’t offer a repeat of their last two home league games, both of which ended in 1-0 defeats. ”

    Chelsea position 11, Fulham 12, Burnley 18…. expert in what ? A push for what ? Seriously ?!?!
    By the way, no mention of Arsenal in the piece, yet one about Arteta and Poschttino being teammates at PSG. But then, Arsenal who ?

    Let me laugh like they say in french….

  2. You published a piece before the Spurs game purporting to show how Arsenal would win easily. Now you’ve done the same for Chelsea. Arsenal didn’t win either game. Is there any point to this nonsense ?

  3. I can well understand your comment Jod since you seem to have no understanding of the notion of prediction, the fun of supporting, and the enjoymnent of following a team, and I suspect your life is all the worse for that.

    I would say however that I can see little point in your reading Untold Arsenal. You must know by now surely that in terms of being an Arsenal supporter, this is a blog that is almost always positive. Indeed you yourself are admitting you have observed that (although only over two games).

    And yet the most amazing thing is you keep on not just reading, but commenting. There’s nothing wrong with the latter, and we do enjoy your comments, but we are slightly curious. I mean, I think GB News is a biased load of old tripe – so I don’t watch it. Yet here you are once again.

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