By Sir Hardly Anyone
- Burnley v Arsenal: could Burnley’s recent home scoring bonanza save them against Arsenal?
- Are Arsenal improving this season, or is the club slipping backwards?
Our earlier article suggested that all the pointers here indicate an away win in this game and it is hard to find anything that might indicate a surprise other than a Burnley win. But then it is hard to see why there might be a Burnley win.
But referees can do strange things, so we need to look further.
Our regular chart of tackles fouls and yellow cards shows as ever that Tottenham continue to rely on tackling as a way of defending – which might be why they have the seventh worse defence in the league. I don’t want Tottenham to rise up the table, but if they stopped all that tackling and tried a different way of defending, they could do it.
Thankfully the media don’t do numbers, so they won’t notice, but the reality is Arsenal and Burnley are not too far apart when it comes to tackling, while Tottenham continue to put in 50% more tackles than Manchester City.
The Tottenham and Burnley link is clear: each are teams that foul at the same level (both on 11 per game). each knocking up 15% more fouls than Arsenal give away.
Toittenham’s style and approach indeed is very much in the Burnley mould, – both clubs that have same number of fouls per game and the same number of yellow cards per foul per game. In terms of that last metric (yellow cards for fouls) they are both running at 25% above Arsenal’s level. (Funny, that’s another thing the media never mention).
Finally we look at all yellow cards – no matter what the cause. This is where Arsenal’s discipline (never once mentioned in the media as far as I can tell) shines supreme. Tottenham are getting 55% more yellows than Arsenal this season. Burnley get 22% more than Arsenal and Manchester City 7% more. Burnley and Liverpool seem to be one of a kind. It must be a northern thing.
It’s been an excellent drive by Arteta and the team to get the fouling levels down, considering that when Arteta came to Arsenal he took over a club that was heading toward being the most yellow carded in the league that season. Figures below are as ever, per game.
| Club | Tackles | Fouls | Yellow for fouls | All yellows |
| Arsenal | 16.5 | 9.6 | 1.12 | 1.54 |
| Burnley | 16.2 | 11.0 | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| Tottenham | 20.1 | 11.0 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
| Manchester City | 13.3 | 8.3 | 0.96 | 1.65 |
| Liverpool | 17.2 | 12.0 | 1.21 | 1.88 |
So these figures obviously give an advantage to Arsenal in this match – Arsenal are less likely to give away free kicks to Burnley, and are less likely to have any of their players stuck down with a yellow card thus restricting how they subsequently play.
But as ever there is the issue of the relationship between these first three metrics, and that’s what we look at next as usual…
| Club | Tackles per foul | Tackles per yellow | Fouls per yellow |
| Arsenal | 1,71 | 14.73 | 8.57 |
| Burnley | 1.47 | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| Tottenham | 1.82 | 13.40 | 7.33 |
| Manchester City | 1.60 | 13.85 | 8.65 |
| Liverpool | 1.43 | 14.21 | 9.91 |
First as we have noted before, Tottenham are getting away with more tackles before a foul is given. But when a foul is given they are more likely than the other teams here to have that turned into a yellow card.
The most likely explanation is that because of their high level of tackling referees are giving them more largesse – more opportunity to tackle without blowing every time. But eventually, it gets too much and so once the whistle starts to blow for tackles, the referee is much more inclined to move into card waving.
Quite why Burnley are allowed to get away with so many more fouls before a yellow card is waved (26% more than Arsenal) is unclear but the most likely explanation is that as referees are punishing them for 68% of their tackles, by blowing for a foul, they are then less inclined to wave a card.
It is all highly unsatisfactory that Burnley can get away with 26% more fouls than Arsenal before getting a yellow card, but that is the ultra-secretive PGMO and their journalistic allies. The figures are there and could be investigated by anyone with a wish to understand exactly what PGMO are up to – but it is left to us.
Now we also have figures for Liverpool added to this table, just as a way of comparison, and what is most interesting about these figures is that they are the highest fouling team in our selection – not something I seem to have noticed the media say.
But they can commit many more fouls than Arsenal, Tottenham or Manchester City before getting carded (16% more than Arsenal in fact) That’s quite a benefit. I wonder how they managed that.
More later.
