- The referee: how Arsenal have managed to cut their yellow card total so dramatically
- Aston Villa v Arsenal: Arsenal against the kings of the yellow cards
- Aston Villa v Arsenal; the game of phases and the home/away difference
- Aston Villa v Arsenal: what the last six results tell us will happen
- Aston Villa v Arsenal: the transfers, the centre forward and 52 years since winning the 3rd division
By Bulldog Drummond
In the table below we can see the variation between the referees – and here we only look at the referees who oversaw over 20 games last season, and from that list pick out a few referees by way of example.
In terms of the fouls given there was last season an 11% variation between the referee calling the most fouls and the referee calling the least fouls – which is perhaps within reason – it is a fast-moving game and referees need to make snap decisions and some variation will be inevitable..
But when it came to the number of tackles that were called as fouls the variation was 21% and so clearly club managers will be instructing players to “let rip where you have to” or “keep it clean” in other cases – always depending on the referee. That of course is not how it should be, but that is how it is in the Premier League,
The variation in the number of penalties given per game is enormous – I think it must take a mass assault by the entire defence on an attacking player for Madley to give a penalty – he gave out one penalty last season. Taylor on the other hand awarded 14 penalties!!!
That perhaps more than any other figure shows that the result of a match is as much dependent on the referee as it is on the teams. Again not how it should be, but that is how it is.
Such figures are of course utterly crazy – there is no way one can argue that Madley just happened to oversee games in which there was no a single foul in a box, while Taylor saw such an event 14 times.
But leaving that nonsense aside, the biggest variation between the referees is on the number of yellow cards waved per game. And remember this is the average across the whole season. The difference between the most card-waving and least card-waving referee is 30%.
And this is terrifying since PGMO allows its referees to see the same team up to five times a season. Imagine Arsenal get Taylor five times in a season – the Arsenal yellow card level will go upwards and the PGMO inspired pundits will be calling Arsenal a dirty team. If on the other hand, Manchester City get Oliver five times, their card level drops.
It really makes no sense at all except to say that PGMO is running out of control. Figures below are from WhoScored.
| Referee | Games | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 27 | 21.26 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 4.81 |
| Paul Tierney | 25 | 21.80 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 3.52 |
| Michael Oliver | 24 | 21.17 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 3.96 |
| Andy Madley | 23 | 22.78 | 0.63 | 0.04 | 3.78 |
| Tim Robinson | 21 | 23.05 | 0.70 | 0.29 | 4.24 |
| Jarred Gillett | 21 | 20.81 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 4.57 |
| Variation | 11% | 21% | 120% | 30% |
As for the team
The Standard seems to have given up on team predictions but predicts a 1-1 draw.
Raya
White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko
Odegaard Partey Rice
Saka Havertz Martinelli
Sports Mole also goes for a 1-1 draw and the identical team. The Mirror won’t give a score or a team layout but focus instead on gambling.
The BBC however have three predictions, two for an Arrsenal win at 1-2 and 0-2 and one for a 2-2 draw.
Betfair have Shearer doing the predictions and unsurprisingly he has Arsenal to lose.
The game is on Sky from 5pm. We’ll be back tomorrow with some thoughts on what happened, and anything else that comes to mind. If you have been, thank you for reading.
Footnote: It looks like Timber is playing. Everyone got that wrong.
The Oliver show was perfect and he was beaten by the Gunners.
We are getting better and Oliver worse.
66 % possession and around same of fouls ?!?!
Villa players were free to do as they wanted unpunished.
Even the Guardian feed recognises it :
“Emi Martinez plucks the ball from the air and holds it in one hand, before pushing the Italian in the face with his free one. Does he get a yellow card? Of course not!”
Anyway… cheated death and got the 3 points. TV idiots were salivating at the prospect of Arsenal losing…
Oliver used the 50/50 decision trick on us today. Allowing Villa every physical contact whatsoever and giving a foul each time an Arsenal player breather a little bit harder in the back of a Villa player. But luckily our players are stronger and it didn’t affect the outcome. The last minute card against Odegaard whas a card born out of frustration from Oliver because his tricks hadn’t worked at all. Also thanks to a few really key moments like the save from Raya, the recovery run from Saliba to block Ramsey and a bit of genius from Leandro Trossard with his first touch. Big 3 points against a very strong Villa team helped by the ref.
McGinn is a nasty player.
There is one thing people are not considering with Martinelli. When he is subsitutued and Trossard comes in…the defender is so tired that the fresh impulse from Trossard with his speed and quicksilver moves is too much to handle. Thus he can score those joker goals after Martinelli spent an hour grinding down the opposition
I agree, McGinn is a nasty player. He should have been shown 2 yellow cards in the first half. The touch line lunge at Saliba and then kicking the ball straight at him a little bit later.
Chris
There certainly is a point to that, but I think there is no doubt that Trossard is the more potent player at this moment in time.
I absolutely love Martinelli and I have no doubt he will return to his best. Maybe he just needs a goal or 2 to get him going?
The thing is, I think we all trust that Arteta knows what he’s doing so I for one would not question why he is starting Martinelli ahead of Trossard because he must have his valid reasons.
My guesses are:
He is seeing something in training that is just not happening in matches……yet?
He thinks that the only way he will get back to his best in a match is to play him back to his best?
Finally, you are spot on. Martinelli, if nothing else sucks the legs out of the Right back leaving Trossard to make hay in the final20minutes or so?
My final thought is that maybe Trossard is just not as effective when played from the start?
It would be interesting to see Trossards goals/assists per minute when started compared to when he comes on as sub?
My feeling, and that’s all it is, is that it is vastly different.
If I can find the data I’ll try and check that out.
Either way, a very hard fought win and one we just about deserved. I looked at the stats and we actually played better last year. Well at least the stats were better last year.
Chris
As promised I had a look at Trossards stats for goals scored when played from the start compared to goals scored from the bench.
These are his stats for season 2023/24
Played 34 times
Started 18 times for a total of 1369 minutes scoring 9 times at a rate of a goal every 152 minutes
Started from the Bench 16 times for a total of 260 minutes scoring 3 times at a rate of a goal ever 86 minutes.
So nearly twice the rate.
But of course, as we said, the defenders are tiring and he is fresh, so how much you can draw from that I’m not really sure. The fact is he does actually score enough times as a starter to justify being a regular, even though there is no doubt he makes a massive impact from the bench.
Just as a matter of interest, either from the start or the bench Trossard played as:
Attacking Midfielder 3 times and scored 0.
Centre forward 5 times and scored 3
Left Wing 26 times and scored 9
Again make of that what you will, but it seems to me that playing him as an emergency CF would certainly be an option if required?
All stats courtesy of trandfermarket.co.uk
@Nitram,
I have in memory an interview from the coach of Hull City after the FA cup final.
If I remember correctly, he said that when he saw Rozicky and another player coming in on overtime, he felt it was game over.
I do believe there is some psychological effect that is happening. Like when Saka moves inside the far right hand corner of then box.
An air of inevitability. And don’t forget, Martinelli is 7 or so years younge then Trossard and I’d believe faster on 40-60 meters.
And the season is long. No one wants Trossard out of juice come march.
So the defender thinks he can handle him and on comes Mr Joker and the defender has to deal with a full different kind of speed, runs, technique, permutations – Trossard can go anywhere….
On the other hand, start Trossard and put in Martinelli in the final 3rd ad the defender has the same conundrum… I think this left side has many different way to impact the game.
So I like the martinelli-Trossard setup.
Chris
“So I like the martinelli-Trossard setup.”
I do to, but maybe the other way around? But, I am certainly not complaining, I am just pointing out some facts, or stats if you prefer.
And here are a couple more to ponder.
Last season Martinelli played a total of 2,029 minutes for 6 goals at a rate of a goal every 338 minutes.
That compares to Trossards overall rate of a goal every 135 minutes. Two and a half times as efficient.
If Trossard played the amount of time Martinelli did, and continued scoring at the same rate he would of scored 15 goals compared to Martinelli’s 6.
Given these bare statistics it seems giving Trossard more playing time would equal more goals.
It is a dilemma, and who am I to question Arteta? He must have his reasons.
@Nitram,
I trust the process. And Trossard is I believe less predictable the Martinelli. so once the back has been tired, Trossard cannot be handled anymore.
And at his age, I do believe there is an element of not running him into the ground that plays out and it does make sense to me.
A tough , well fought win , with a clen sheet to boot . Well done the team. Am not going to overthink this season , and leave it to the management to get it right .
Up the Gunners !
Walter,
Great analysis of Oliver’s biased performance. Also, agree about Saliba’s run. It was a hell of an effort and perfect angle. Raya with an incredible reflex save and well deserved clean sheet. The attackers controlled most of the game and earned the goals.
Perhaps you could do a referee report on a regular basis. We’d look forward to it.