The referee: how Arsenal have managed to cut their yellow card total so dramatically

 

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

• Aston Villa v Arsenal: Arsenal against the kings of the yellow cards
• Aston Villa v Arsenal; the game of phases and the home/away difference
• Aston Villa v Arsenal: what the last six results tell us will happen
• Aston Villa v Arsenal: the transfers, the centre forward and 52 years since winning the 3rd division

Last season Arsenal got 43 yellow cards for fouls (the highest number for a single club was 70).  (There is more about cards last season here).  In 2022/23 it was 32 yellow cards for fouls (the highest was 66).  In 2021/22 it was 47 yellow cards for fouls (the highest was 77), and back in 2020/21 it was 39 yellow cards for fouls (the highest was 62).

So the variation in the number of cards for fouls for the most carded club across just four years has been 24%.  And let’s be clear that is not the variation of the most carded club to the least carded club but the difference in the number of cards for fouls that the club committing the most offences got.  Arsenal’s aim is clearly to get around 60% of the number of yellows for fouls that the worst offending club gets – and that is what is being achieved.  

So as the game approaches, now let us have a look at the way the waving of cards by officials relates to the tackling and fouling.  

Now we have noticed before that clubs that put in fewer tackles tend to get those tackles called as fouls more often, either because the defender only tackles when the situation urgently needs it (no matter how clean the tackle is going to be) or because the tackles are so rare the referees feel they ought to balance things up a bit and call a foul.

Thus Arsenal can put in far fewer tackles before a foul is called that Tottenham.  But matters change totally when we come to the waving of cards.   So Manchester City put in few tackles but when they do tackle, they are particularly likely to get on the  wrong side of the referee, and so they are much more likely to get a yellow card when they tackle, than Arsenal (49% more likely in fact).

But just how many fouls can a team make before a yellow card is waved around?   This is where Arsenal get it absolutely right – and indeed this really is a highlight of the Arteta revolution (although the media won’t mention this because it strays into talking about referees which of course they will not do).

Yet this is the most important figure since a yellow really does affect a player’s way of playing.  Arsenal can commit 60% more fouls before a card is waved, than Manchester City and 31% more fouls before a card is shown than Aston Villa.  That is a terrific achievement and one of the highlights of Arteta’s revolution.

 

Team	Tackles per foul	Tackles per card	Fouls per card
Tottenham Ho	1.83	12.90	7.03
Aston Villa	1.29	9.00	6.94
Manchester City	1.64	9.34	5.69
Arsenal	1.52	13.89	9.12

 

This table shows the staggering progress Arsenal has made, but also marks out the oddity that Arsenal cannot put in as many tackles before a foul as Tottenham can.

In fact is seems no one can achieve what Tottenham has done in terms of tackling and getting away without having a foul given against them.  1.83 tackles per foul is the highest level figure for tackles per foul in the league.

And again as you would expect with so many tackles going in, Tottenham can put in more tackles in, than any other club before a card is waved in the air.

But looked at another way we can see how Villa is being caught out here.  They can’t tackle without a 31% higher chance of that tackle being called out as a foul.  Villa clearly either don’t have players who are as good as Tottenham at tackling, or alternatively their club “liaison” with PGMO is not as good as Tottenham’s.

It is hard to understand why clubs don’t take more notice of the “fouls per card” statistic, as it would most certainly improve their chances of winning if they did.  Players on a yellow are more cautious – keeping the yellow cards at bay is a central part of a manager’s job these days.  Cutting the yellow cards down has been a major achievement of Arteta’s management.

And through this revolution, Arsenal can get away with a third more fouls than Villa, before a yellow card is shown.  That’s quite an advantage.

As for today, the referee is Michael Oliver who oversaw 24 league games in the Premier League last season and in the final article, we shall compare him with other referees who undertook 20-plus games as well as take a look at the Arsenal team for the match.