Does the referee affect the result?
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By Bulldog Drummond
I thought it might be interesting to see how many times Michael Oliver has overseen an Arsenal match in this year. And the results are horrific. All our figures, as usual for referee data, come from WhoScored.
This will be the fifth time this year that he has taken control of an Arsenal match. And there’s every chance that after today he’ll get another one, because last year he saw Arsenal six times.
Now you might recall that on Untold we’ve regularly called for no referee to oversee a match involving any particular team more than twice in a season. That shouldn’t be too hard to arrange – you just need to train up a few more referees. And the benefit would be huge since it would mean that if a referee or two were bent, or chaotic, or not up to the job, or feeling a bit dopey on the day, they could only affect each team twice. It is truly just a simple precaution.
But not only will PGMO not even consider that, nor will the media. They seem to love the fact that Arsenal get the same referee over and over and over again and can see nothing wrong with this. And to be clear, as the results below will show, we are not saying this because Oliver looks like he is biased, but because it is an obvious, simple precaution against any referee who might (unconsciously of course) be biased.
So, in 2023 Arsenal had Oliver in charge against Everton, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City (again), Burnley and West Ham United. Yes, six times in one calendar year.
And to be clear once more I am not saying Oliver is bent, or incapable, I am just saying that it would be a simple safety matter against such a possibility to have a maximum of two games a year or two a season with a referee seeing the same club. You just need a few more referees and a more balanced schedule.
As for this year it has been Oliver in the matches involving Tottenham H, Everton, Aston Villa, Manchester City (again, again) and now Chelsea.
But if we have a look at Oliver’s statistics alongside those of some other referees this season we can see at once how anyone wishing to gamble on the results of games is better off considering who the referee is, than who the teams are. For example, if you are looking to place a bet on a home win don’t bet on a match involving Chris Kavanagh. None of his seven games this season have been home wins!!!!! Better bet on a match overseen by Craig Pawson. Two-thirds of his games have been home wins.
So is that it? PGMO in league with gamblers? Of course, I am not saying that – I am just saying this situation is utterly and totally absurd. As is the fact that the media ignores it.
For Arsenal this weekend we might feel happier if we had Anthony Taylor – over half of his games (55.6% to be exact) have been away wins, compared to Robert Jones who has only 14.3% away wins.
But no we have Michael Oliver for the sixth time this year. And although he has looked upon Arsenal favourably in 2024 I still think that is far, far, far, far too many times for the same referee to see the same club.
However we take what we are given, and in his nine games this season he has 22.2% home wins, 44.4% away wins and 33.3% draws, which, as it happens, favours Arsenal. But that still does not make this system right.
Here is the table showing how a club’s likely result really does depend on who the referee is.
Season: 2024/5
| Referee | Games | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 9 | 22.2 | 44.4 | 33.3 |
| Anthony Taylor | 9 | 22.2 | 55.6 | 22.2 |
| Chris Kavanagh | 7 | 0.0 | 42.9 | 57.1 |
| Robert Jones | 7 | 42.9 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| Craig Pawson | 6 | 66.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
So if we are going to draw some comfort from the referee, it is that he is not influenced by the home crowd, which could be beneficial. In fact the opposite – so let’s encourage Chelsea fans to cheer and boo a lot.
If we now turn to Arsenal’s results away from home we can see in the table below Arsenal started off ok but then things turned against us – a typical dip in form, which it seems most clubs get at some stage in the season.
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | W | 0-2 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Manchester City v Arsenal | D | 2-2 |
| 19 Oct 2024 | AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal | L | 2-0 |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Newcastle United v Arsenal | L | 1-0 |
However the media don’t take this as a dip, they instead call it a “worrying sequence for Arsenal in the league, the losses at Bournemouth and Newcastle coming either side of the home draw against Liverpool when they conceded a late equaliser.”
Which is of course one way of putting it, especially if you are editorially prohibited from mentioning the ref.
I know we have to be careful of these two Liverpool fans, Jarred Gillet (VAR) is a Liverpool fan and ref Rob Jones is from Merseyside and also a Liverpool fan, not sure about Michael Oliver and the reason why he is getting a lot of Arsenal games. Do they ever consult with the teams before selection, do they place the refs by nearest living accommodation, do they know or investigate what team they supported or even look at the kind of STATs that you have presented? Probably not, because the PGMOL are probably bent as well given the statistics and we can’t rely on the bias media to highlight this, except for you Tony with maybe one or two others that represent the true facts. I just hope we play well with 11 men on the pitch and beat Chelsea on Sunday.
I’m wondering which ruling will be applied against us that will never be applied to any other team in the next 25 years ,beyond that I’m not caring – I’ll either be brown bread or dribbling into me soup.
Two yellow cards in as many seconds for Martinelli tells us all we need to know about Oliver.
If I was a gambler I would bet on a red card for us tomorrow.