By Tony Attwood
Arsenal are, as we all know, not doing as well as we had hoped at the start of the season. And we know this because the media tell us – every day. Indeed arguments abound as to why – most of those put forward now either blaming the referees or the players or the tactics or the injuries – which pretty much covers everything.
But actually it is mostly nonsense because it misses a key point. But still, let’s start with the simple comparison of season by season (data from 11v11).
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arsenal 2024 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Arsenal 2023 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 24 |
| 1 | Arsenal 2022 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Arsenal 2021 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 20 |
So yes we are back down to the level of 2021 although the goal scoring is much better than then, but considerably down on the last two seasons.
As for the reason, three red cards and a load of injuries are the obvious starting points. But could there be something else?
Certainly, if we look at the away games we have had, it turns out that pretty much all of them have been against bigger teams. And yes of course Bournemouth is not in that category, but I’d say the rest are.
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | W | 0-2 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Manchester City v Arsenal | D | 2-2 |
| 19 Oct 2024 | AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal | L | 2-0 |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Newcastle United v Arsenal | L | 1-0 |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Chelsea v Arsenal | D | 1-1 |
So to do a bit of comparison work here, let’s look at the first six away games last season.
| Date | Match | Res | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2023 | Crystal Palace v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Everton v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 30 Sep 2023 | AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal | W | 0-4 |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Chelsea v Arsenal | D | 2-2 |
| 04 Nov 2023 | Newcastle United v Arsenal | L | 1-0 |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Brentford v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
Now only two of those opening games last season away from home could be considered against the bigger sides, as opposed to this season. And interestingly the two away games against the bigger sides last season at the start gave exactly the same results as this season – an away draw with Chelsea and an away defeat to Newcastle.
Put it another way if we look at the away games this season and compare the results gained, with the results last season, against the same clubs we can get something of an insight.
| Date | Match | ReS 2024/25 | Res 2023.24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | W | L |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | W | W |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Manchester City v Arsenal | D | D |
| 19 Oct 2024 | AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal | L | W |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Newcastle United v Arsenal | L | L |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Chelsea v Arsenal | D | D |
Now by and large most people think last season was quite good and when we compare this season’s results away from home with last season’s, we can see that this season we beat Villa, whereas last season we lost, and this season we lost to Bournemouth whereas last season we won.
In fact against the clubs that Arsenal have played away from home this season compared with last season’s results are identical – two wins, two draws, two defeats.
The difference between the seasons comes in two ways. First, the difficult away games have all been bunched together at the start, instead of being spread out through the season, and second, we lost to Bournemouth and beat Aston Villa, instead of the other way around.
And all this has to be in the context of multiple injuries and three red cards, the reality behind which can at the very least be questioned somewhat.
In fact, given the three red cards, we can say that to have maintained last season’s away form is actually to have done very well. All that has changed is that Arsenal has not had its matches against the other major clubs spread out. Maybe that is by chance, but equally it could be someone thinking, “if we give Arsenal a load of tough fixtures early on, the media will turn on Arsenal, and maybe the fans’ faith will crumble too. But for goodness sake don’t mention the way the fixtures have been programmed this time around…”
Without considering the injury list and the banning order list, (which undoubtedly have had an influence on the side’s ability to hold on to a lead, plus the need to integrate new players into the team) it looks poor. And in fact if anyone does take such factors into account they might well end up exclaiming how amazing it is that Arsenal have by and large kept those away games at the same level as last season.
But actually there is another interesting factor to consider, and that is found when one compares the number of points various clubs have this year compared to last year at this stage.
| Club | Last Year pts | This Year pts | Difference |
| Man City | 27 | 23 | -4 |
| Tottenham | 26 | 16 | -10 |
| Liverpool | 24 | 28 | +4 |
| Arsenal | 24 | 19 | -5 |
| Aston Villa | 22 | 18 | -4 |
| Newcastle | 20 | 18 | -2 |
| Man U | 18 | 15 | -3 |
| Average | 23 | 19.6 | -3.4 |
So the average decline in the number of points among those teams is 3.4 points a club. So yes Arsenal are doing worse than the average decline by being five points down. But when one looks at the way the fixture list has been fixed this season, that is actually quite a good result and contrary to what you will read in most columns, bodes well for the future.
For despite three red cards – the major talking point in the media – and despite all the injuries (mentioned far less often), and despite having just about the toughest possible opening set of away fixtures (hardly mentioned at all, if anywhere) Arsenal are doing only fractionally worse in terms of the decline than most clubs.
In short, contrary to everything you can read daily online and in the papers, Arsenal are actually coping very well with this fixture list and this ludicrously high level of red cards and injuries.
Quite why such matters as these are generally not discussed, in the media is probably down to the contempt in which most media editors hold their readership. But sweep away the prejudice, and you find Arsenal are actually doing ok. That doesn’t mean we are going to overtake Liverpool, but in terms of comparisons with recent seasons, this is turning out all right.
Not sure what is Gary’s purpose but to us fans it just confirms that there was cheating involved.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/1gpl6tz/gary_neville_on_sky_sports_thanks_mike_riley_for/
Ben
He knows they cheated, he’s all but admitted it more than once. He usually laughs about it as he re tells the story.
This is the problem we are up against. It’s not that most people with 2 eyes and a semblance of grey matter cant see it, it’s the fact they actually think it’s funny that Arsenal get stitched up. No sympathy ever.
Yes of course other teams get bad, sometimes terrible calls against them, but I truly believe none as often as us, and when they do, they at least get a modicum of sympathy.
As I say, all we get is laughter and the piss taken.
That’s why it continually happens, because the officials know to err against Arsenal will NEVER get them in trouble. Err in our favour and see the stick they get.
Nitram, your view is confirmed by the sudden attention to Coote and his hostility to Liverpool.
There has never been similar attention to years of hostility to Arsenal from Ellery, Riley, Poll, Dowd, Webb, Gallagher, Dean, Taylor, Mason, Gillett, Oliver and the rest. The only referee that I can recall appearing to be fair was Mark Halsey.
@ Nitram
See my comment on the previous article. (It went into moderation, possibly because I posted a link in it, but should be there later.) It sums up the media perfectly and their approach to both Arsenal and referees.