- Brighton v Arsenal: the referee who favours the away team!
- Brighton v Arsenal: why Brighton will go for a draw
By Bulldog Drummond
When we look at the number of tackles Brighton and Arsenal each put in per game, the numbers are remarkably similar: 17.5 for Brighton, 16,6 for Arsenal. The number of fouls given is similar also: 11.7 per game for Brighton and 11.3 for Arsenal. And so as we would expect in a fair and even footballing world, the number of yellow cards per game is similar for the two clubs: 1.16 for Brighton, and 1.11 for Arsenal
The conclusion is obvious: both teams are moderate in their tackling, their fouling is under control and referees respond to this by being moderate in their use of cards.
But there is a problem.
For then, if we have a look, not at the two clubs overall, but by comparing Brighton’s figures at home and Arsenal’s figures away from home, the numbers change. Most notably we can see in the third row below that although the number of tackles Brighton put in at home is only a little below their average overall , and even though the number of fouls they are called out for at home is higher than their total overall, the number of yellow cards they get at home is just a little over half their number overall!
In short, tackles and fouls the same, card numbers much lower when they are at home!
Now of course it could be aruged that Brighton play in a utterly different style at home from that away, but the number of fouls committed at home and away is almost the same. And yet despite having an average of 1.16 yellow cards per game, at home they only get an average of 0.68 yellow cards a game.
One might then suspect that this is true for all teams – they get most of their yellow cards away from home, and yes Arsenal do get more yellow cards away from home – but the difference is so tiny (0.09 more cards away from home than at home) that one wouldn’t notice.
On the other hand, Brighton’s difference is so big that it looks as if either they have a deliberate policy of laying off the fouls that will bring a card, when playing at home, or else referees are being extraordinarily lenient to Brighton in home games.
| Team | Tackles pg | Fouls pg | Yellow PG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 17.5 | 11.7 | 1.16 |
| Arsenal | 16.6 | 11.3 | 1.11 |
| Brighton home | 16.2 | 12.1 | 0.68 |
| Arsenal away | 15.7 | 11.5 | 1.2 |
As a result of this curious situation we find some very worrying statistics for a match in which Brighton are at home and Arsenal are away.
Brighton will be able to put in almost twice as many tackles before they get a yellow card, as Arsenal. Likewise Brighton will be able to put in almost twice as many fouls before they get a yellow card.
| Team | Tackles per Foul | Tackles per yellow | Fouls per yellow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.50 | 15.09 | 10.09 |
| Arsenal | 1.47 | 14.95 | 10.18 |
| Brighton home | 1.34 | 23.82 | 17.79 |
| Arsenal away | 1.36 | 13.08 | 9.58 |
Now we have never broken these figures down into home and away figures before, in this manner, and so I have no idea if this is something that applies to all teams, but obviously it is something that needs investigating – and such an investigation is clearly never going to be done by the media at large.
Moving on, one other oddity in today’s game is that this is the third time Arsenal have had Anthony Taylor as a referee, but Brighton have never seen him before this season. This, I would argue is not an ideal situation, since Mr Taylor will carry forward his impressions of Arsenal players from previous games but of course will not of Brighton players.
Above all else Arsenal must go into this game knowing that they are going to get seriously punished for their tackles in a way that Brighton and Hove will not. This means changing the way Arsenal play the game, which of course is never a good idea just for one match. But it looks to be essential here.
With these home and away figures for this referee, it really does look like Arsenal are going to have to be incredibly cautious in their tackling, which inevitably leads to giving the opposition chances. I must say these figures leave me rather concerned.
Once again it is a great shame that the media generally utterly refuse to consider statistics in relation to referees, for if they did they would surely be asking how it is that referees simply give so few yellow cards to Brighton at home.
As per my previous post, Taylor has an anti-Arsenal record. (no great surprise, just like PGMOL as a whole). This season, he denied us the 3 points against Liverpool.
He also made the fraudulent accusation of assault by Mr. Wenger and suffered no cosequences for this proven dishonesty.