By Bulldog Drummond
This is where the phrase “thick and fast” comes to be used pretty much everywhere in terms of Arsenal games. But part of the number of games is of course, Arsenal’s fault, for getting through previous matches in the FA Cup and the League Cup.
So this time we have Brighton away and let’s start with the basic analysis which gives us a fairly good starting point to the forthcoming game. (Data from 11v11 Arsenal)
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Brighton and Hove Albion home | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Arsenal away | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 18 |
So there is an imbalance of the number of games played, but even if one victory was removed from Arsenal the club would still have a better points total than Brighton at home. Also we should note that Arsenal are scoring two goals a game away – more than Brighton are getting at home, and overall have a massively superior goal difference when home and away is taken into account.
If we try this another way we can look at the last six home games for Brighton, rather than the whole season, and compare with the last six away games for Arsenal. Here again it is the goal difference that stands out.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Brighton home | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Arsen away | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 11 |
Again Arsenal are edging it in terms of points and majestically so in terms of goals. And of course this is confirmed when we look at the overall league tables without taking into account he last six.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 39 |
| 10 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 27 |
Brighton are going through an incredibly dodgy patch of late, having won none of their last seven Premier League games. Fives have been draws and two have been defeats. The goal tally is seven for Brighton and 12 for the opposition.
This is in contrast to their first 12 games in the Premier League this season in which Brighton and Hove won five, drew four and lost justs two. And indeed some of the victories gave them hope for the future, such as beating Tottenham H and Newcastle in successive matches in October, But most impressive of all were the victories over ManC at home and Bournemouth away in November each by 2-1, having lost the previous game 2-1 to Liverpool. Those three games really were seen as a defining moment by the club’s supporters, the moment when Brighton really knew they were playing in the big time, And on 23 November last year the Premier League reflected that….
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 22 |
But since then Arsenal have been winning and Brighton doing rather less of that. In fact in the last seven league games the club has playedBrighton have won none, drawn five and lost two. Which might suggest it could be easy for Arsenal, unless of course Brighton finally pick themselves up, realise what they have been doing wrong and then change tactics.
These last games are in fact a perfect example of the “dip” that we brought up a number of times last season (see for example “A comparison of dips”), and shows once again that for most of the top teams the biggest issue in the Premier League is how quickly they can come out of a dip and start winning again.
There is one other factor with Brighton we should note. For they are in fact the draw kings of the Premier League having drawn nine games – more than any other club.
And this is no recent thing for Brighton were the top drawing club last season as well.
So my guess is to say that Brighton will now be trying to play their way out of their dip by going for a draw rather than taking risks by throwing everything forward. And one imagines Arsenal will be very aware of this.
