Recent posts
- Arsenal’s tactical revolution is a key part of determining who they need to buy
- Why does one Premier League ref see five times as many away wins, as another?
- Why Arsenal didn’t mind losing and where they’d be without VAR
By Tony Attwood
My thesis is simple: virtually all football journalists have a three-step approach to their work, and tragically, most fans and commentators buy into this. As a result most people interested in football think the same way.
The model for this approach comes from George Orwell’s classic novel “1984”, written some 80 years ago. It goes like this…
First, they create a vision of success. For Arsenal this would be winning the league. For Ipswich it would be staying up. For Tottenham it doesn’t really matter what they do, because their future is generally described as bright.
Second, they take individual clubs and state what each club should do to have more success. Since these journalists are not football managers, their prognostications cannot be measured or gauged in any practical way.
Third, although the nuances might change, most media outlets push the same story. The most obvious one at the moment is that Arsenal need a centre forward. Say it enough, and everyone starts to agree. Anyone who suggests the statistics all suggest otherwise is told “you can prove anything with statistics.” You can’t of course. You can’t prove that Arteta is a woman, or that Ipswich are top of the league. This is just nonsense.
Thus, because all the media are saying the same thing, (as in “Arsenal need a new centre forward”) the debate is shut down, and virtually no one talks about the extraordinarily high number of goals Arsenal score.
In fact you never see the table below which picks out the seasons in which Arsenal did indeed have a centre-forward who scored lots of goals and compares them with the seasons without the goal-scoring centre-forward.
So we ignore van Persie with 37 goals and Arsenal coming third. And Aubameyang with 31 when we came fifth. Or Sanchez with 30 when we came, again, fifth. And Aubameyang again, this time with 29 when we came 8th.
But compare this with the last two seasons in which in one case we had three players with 15 and in the other a top scorer with 20. In both we came second. Here’s the evidence no one ever publishes, because it blows the whole “need a centre forward” argument apart. Just compare the position (“pos”) Arsenal ended up, and the number of goals scored by the top scorer.
| Season | F | A | Pts | Pos | Top Scorer | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–12 | 74 | 49 | 70 | 3 | Robin van Persie | 37 |
| 2012–13 | 72 | 37 | 73 | 4 | Theo Walcott | 21 |
| 2013–14 | 68 | 41 | 79 | 4 | Olivier Giroud | 22 |
| 2014–15 | 71 | 36 | 75 | 3 | Alexis Sánchez | 25 |
| 2015–16 | 65 | 36 | 71 | 2 | Olivier Giroud | 24 |
| 2016–17 | 77 | 44 | 75 | 5 | Alexis Sánchez | 30 |
| 2017–18 | 74 | 51 | 63 | 6 | Lacazette | 17 |
| 2018–19 | 73 | 51 | 70 | 5 | Aubameyang | 31 |
| 2019–20 | 56 | 48 | 56 | 8 | Aubameyang | 29 |
| 2020–21 | 55 | 39 | 61 | 8 | Lacazette | 17 |
| 2021–22 | 61 | 48 | 69 | 5 | Bukayo Saka | 12 |
| 2022–23 | 88 | 43 | 84 | 2 | Martinelli, Odegaard, Saka | 15 each |
| 2023–24 | 91 | 29 | 89 | 2 | Bukayo Saka | 20 |
In short, getting a top scorer has absolutely nothing to do with ending up higher up the league. But on this matter this reality is not allowed; there is no debate. Everyone has been hypnotised. We need a top scorer.
In 2024 Arsenal achieved a points tally and goal difference, which in 2023 would have made them league winners. This showed the phenomenal progress Arsenal were making in chasing down Manchester City. But for the media it meant that Arsenal had failed because they had no new centre forward.
So no one speaks of the risk involved, yet we all know that the majority of transfers don’t actually achieve what they are meant to achieve.
But consider this… 56 goals in 2020, with Aubameygan in full pelt, 61 goals in 2020/1 with Lacazette scoring just over half the number of goals Aubameyang got, 69 goals in 2021/2 with our top two scorers getting 12 goals each, 88 in 2022/23 with three players each on 15 goals, and 89 in 2023/24. In fact NOT having a top scorer generates more goals and more points!!!
“They have to sign a top-class centre forward,” is the opposite of the truth.
Aubameyang got 31 goals in 2018/19. But in that season Arsenal came 5th. Of course that could have been a fluke but the following season he got two fewer, 29 – still a good number – and the club came in 8th.
Now compare that with 2022 when the top scorer got just 12. That surely was a disaster. But no Arsenal came 5th. Better than the season in which Aubameyang got 29 goals!!!
What this shows us is that there is no direct relationship between having a top scorer banging in 20+ goals a season, and where the club ends up in the league. In fact, the style of play can change so much that having a top scorer dominating the attack can screw up everything.
Having a top-scoring centre-forward does not guarantee success. Of course it can work and until recently Haaland at ManC has been a successful model. But it is not the only approach that works.
In 2021/2 there were two top scorers each on 23 goals. One was Salah at Liverpool who came second, and one was Son at Tottenham who came fourth. In 2020/21 the top scorer was Kane at Tottenham who came 7th.
In 2019/20, the top scorer was Vardy at Leicester with 23. Leicester came 5th. So having a top scorer doesn’t guarantee success. And Arsenal bringing one in now could well disrupt the high rate of scoring that we already have.
Conclusion: just because the media says it over and over and over, doesn’t mean it is true.
AS I highlighted with Ian Wright.
Sorry, but here it is again as it feeds in to exactly what the article highlights.
Now I’ve no doubt there’s people out there thinking, if only we had an Ian Wright type player that would be the final piece of the puzzle. But would it? Wright was our stellar striker between season 91/92 and 97/98. Bellow are his numbers including his PL goals. His total goals. How many the team scored and where we finished.
Season – PL/All – Team PL – Finished
91/92 – 24/26 – 81 – 4th
92/93 – 15/30 – 40 – 10th
93/94 – 23/25 — 53 – 4th
94/95 – 18/30 – 52 – 12th
95/96 – 15/23 – 49 – 5th
96/97 – 23/30 – 62 – 3rd
With Bergkamp
97/98 – 16/22 – 68 – 1st
Our overall goal scoring on average increased after Wright left.
The truth is it’s just a stick with which to bash Arteta and Arsenal.
All these statistics mean nothing to them.
Every time we win a game with 5 different goal scorers or a series of matches with 5 different goals scorers nothing is said. We are second top scorers over the season with all these multiple scorers and no correlation between the 2 is drawn. There is no correlation drawn between having multiple scorers and winning football matches. This can, and in Arsenals case does happen lots of times. But still no correlation between the 2 is drawn.
Lose a game and immediately a correlation is drawn between that and not having a ‘proper number nine’.
When Man City, Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, and even Liverpool lose a game they don’t draw a correlation between that and them being over reliant on one goal scorer.
It’s bad enough the media doing this but when our own fans jump on the band wagon it is sickening.
Thank goodness Tony and all you others for your words of wisdom. I have found the comments from Arsenal supporters, if that is actually what they are, since the Newcastle game have made me utterly despondent.
Laura Kirk, Aresenal’s Fan Writer for the BBC said the following in a phone in to Radio 5 Live and then the article was published on the website. The article was titled and then went as follows:
Arsenal’s ‘precarious’ position after ‘pathetic’ semi-final loss
After failing to score in either leg of their semi-final with Newcastle, she was unimpressed with how January went by without strengthening the forward options:
“It is telling us something – if only we’d had an opportunity for four weeks to, maybe, sort that out. I wonder what the club will be analysing today?!
“It does make you question what the relationship is between [Mikel] Arteta and the decision-makers at the club.
“Arsenal will need to pick themselves up pretty quickly after this. They were pathetic over the two legs so they really need to go away and have a think.”
What I really find troubling about this sort of article is that it is fine to have your opinion, but as a supporter and to express it on this type of platform and in a manner that suggests you know what is actually going on at the club, when you are extremely unlikely to have the remotest clue, is irresponsible.
To question Mikel Arteta’s relationship with the decision makers is downright stupid and actually it is none of her business. Mikel Arteta has been absolutely clear in every interview that he wanted new players, but not just anyone and not just at any price. Also, and everyone seems to overlook this, they had to be available. We could have bought Mathys Tels for example, but he’s hardly been banging them in has he, also we would then been accused of panic buying and wasting money. Just look at how none of the players that Mikel has got rid of have done anything since they left.
Also notice that Mikel Arteta, becomes ‘Arteta’ when you take against him. Very common social media parlance to revert to the surname only when aggrieved.
There is a form of petulance that is increasingly developing, spearheaded by Phil McNulty, and emerging in the comments from Laura Kirk, that ‘you are not doing what we in the media told you to do and so what do you expect, there is no wonder your season is in disarray and you should really do as your told or we will be very upset with you for not listening to us’.
Also, it is becoming very popular, to express imperatives like “they really need to go away and have a think”. As I’ve said before, I doubt very much that Mikel doesn’t think about any of these things with his staff and players and that they sit around all day and whistle Dixie.
The next theme emerging is the banner headlong of 3 negatives. This followed the LK article. They are also picked from things fans have said, so they must be right!!
“Toothless.” “Outplayed.” “Stagnant.”
How on earth is this going to help the team?
So, apologies for the rant and thank you again for your encouraging, wise and positive approach, which is very helpful in these times of inflicted despondency.
Not a knock on the player but how many titles did Tottenham win with media darling Harry Kane banging in 20-300 goals a season?
Typo, I meant 30, lol.
The media clamour for a top striker, which sadly, is influencing many of our fans, is just the latest myth of its kind.
It follows the previous repeated references to our “defensive woes” and the claim that “Arsenal lack leaders”
Just another versions of the same old bollox, as part of the permanent anti-Arsenal agenda.
Media obviously sick as parrots that we destroyed Man City, so are going overboard after the Newcastle game.