By Bulldog Drummond
While Arsenal continued to be overrun by injuries to players who we would normally have automatically in the side, Forsest appear to be more or less injury-free.
But one fact that is not generally commented upon – or at least not in the articles I have seen – is that of possession. Yes it is being said that Arsenal will have the most possession but there is more to it than that, for in checking the possession figures with fbref I also decided to take a look also at their “Total Distance” chart.
This measurement made in yards is the total distance players moves the ball while controlling it with the feet – the movement being in any direction.
Now this is a really weird measurement which appears in the second column below which is a reduced version of a chart provided by FBRef. It shows the different approach of the two sides and the risk that Forest take with their approach. It is in order of possession percentage.
| Pos | Distance ball moved | Club | Number of players used | Possession Percentage |
| 1 | 71042 | Manchester C | 27 | 61.0% |
| 2 | 57219 | Chelsea | 29 | 58.2% |
| 3 | 59553 | Tottenham Ho | 31 | 57.2% |
| 4 | 53880 | Liverpool | 24 | 56.4% |
| 5 | 49383 | Arsenal | 24 | 55.5% |
| 6 | 51873 | Manchester U | 27 | 54.0% |
| 18 | 37215 | Ipswich Town | 32 | 40.3% |
| 19 | 34455 | Nottingham F | 23 | 40.3% |
| 20 | 33992 | Everton | 25 | 40.2% |
Another interesting snippet from this table is that while using an above-average number of players is not really a good idea (see Ipswich), Forest have the lowest number of players used in the League, which means that players coming in to cover for an injury may well not have had much league experience this season.
But this also shows they are riding their luck in terms of injuries, and a bad run of injuries could totally disrupt the team – although obviously that has not happened. They have used 23 players and Southampton have used 34 (which is to say, 48% more players).
Now this table also shows that possession isn’t everything – but it is certainly very helpful in some cases. For we must notice the positions of Tottenham and Nottingham Forest in terms of their possession percentage and their league position. It is possible to have a low percentage of possession but still be near the top of the league. But that is not guaranteed.
What all this implies is that Arsenal need to use the possession the Forestian tactics allow, and punish the opposition, and continue doing this throughout the whole game happy in the amount of possession, while being patient about getting the goals. Because the chances are Forest will then seize a goal when given half a chance.
Forest are equal in ninth position with Brighton in terms of goals scored, but third in the league. That knowledge must be put to good use by Arsenal. For Arsenal getting a lead of a couple of goals should knock the wind out of the Forestian sails, as they will know they simply don’t score that many.
Sports Mole however predicts a goalless draw, and give us a team of
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Odegaard, Partey, Rice;
Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
90 Min suggest that Arsenal might drop Merino into midfield and add Sterling to the front line
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Rice, Merino, Odegaard;
Nwaneri, Trossard, Sterling.
Who Score take out Nwaneri and instead offer
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Rice, Partey, Odegaard;
Sterling Merino Trossard,
So I suspect it is going to be safe to say it is one of those combinations.
A Forestian win leaves them three points behind Arsenal, and Arsenal having had two successive defeats A win for Arsenal leaves them eight points behind Liverpool but nine points ahead of Forest. As ever, we shall see, and the media made up of people who are not managers will tell us what Arsenal should have done.
The last time Arsenal had two successive defeats in the league was at the end of 2023 when the results were a defeat to Aston Villa, a win against Brighton, a draw with Liverpool, a defeat to WHAM and a defeat to Fulham.
Although the defeat to WHAM was greeted as the end for Arteta and Arsenal by many writers, it was the first league defeat in 16 games, in three of which Arsenal scored five goals. So maybe things are not quite as gloomy as the media says. After all you can’t believe everything you read in the papers.
Another very poor performance from Arsenal again. When will the board realize Arteta is not a winner. They have been so poor this season. Maybe 2 or 3 games they played well. They are an average team in a very average PL season. They barely deserve to be in the top four.
Some players seem to regress under Arsenal. Zinchenko, Jesus, Partey, Calafiori, just not good enough.
And Arteta seems to be clueless when it comes to tactics. He has one way to play which, this season, is as bad as late Wenger. So slow, so plodding, no variation, nothing remarkable. Arsenal resemble the LNER sandwich I get every night on the train home. Dull and unappetizing but just a little better than nothing.
Just poor and uninspiring
Get rid of him. He won’t win anything.
I think it would be more informative Andrew if you explained how the club is in second position in the league when “They have been so poor this season. Maybe 2 or 3 games they played well.”
If you can explain this I’ll willingly publish your answer, but until you do, I think enough space has been given over to your constant repeitition of the same theme without any explanation of how a team can be as bad as you say, and yet end up second in the last two seasons and currently be second once again.
The eighteen clubs below us in the PL must really be the pits, Andrew, and their managers not just clueless, plodding and not winners but scarcely human at all.
Your contribution is beyond a parody. Keep honing those skills and you might make a career as a stand-up comedian. Football writer, not so much.
@ Andrewbanks
Tony is perhaps a tad more diplomatic than most and in my view, you’re comment is largely nonsense (that’s my concession to diplomacy!).
We are second in the league with a sizeable gap to the club in third. We are still the fourth highest scorers in the league (just two goals off second highest) despite currently playing without our top three highest scoring players and we have the best defence in the league.
Last night we had more shots than Liverpool, Man C or Man U, all of whom won their games. Yet we were playing away at the highest placed opposition of the four clubs and against the one with the best defence. And we did all that without our top three scorers. No we didn’t score…..but that may have had something to do with playing without our top three scorers!! Get real.
I don’t know when or why you started following (I won’t use the word “supporting” as clearly you don’t) Arsenal but I’m guessing it was when we were winning things and now we’re not winning things you don’t like it. I’d certainly wager you didn’t grow up supporting Arsenal in the 1960’s as you really would have had something to moan about then and might appreciate what we actually have now.
I suggest you stop reading Untold and stick with reading the mainstream media as they will willingly support your irrational prejudices. Followers like you are detrimental to the club and we would all be far better off without the moaning and whinging which is all that you dissenters seem to offer.
Mikey
The thing that gets me about Banks is that he is a coward. He is as yellow and spineless as as a jaundice Jellyfish hiding under a rock. He is a pathetic Narcissist who puts his own warped baseless opinions above anything else. Especially facts.
We all have opinions, but they mean very little, if anything in truth, without context and the support of facts, usually presented in the guise of data or statistics.
Banks never does any of that. No context. No comparison. No facts.
I am pleased to see Tony has finally lost patience with him. Not because he doesn’t accept a counter point of view or criticism, but because Banks refuses, or simply cannot, substantiate a vast majority of his claims.
Criticisms of our style are fine That’s just a matter of taste.
But to say Arsenal and numerous players are poor, as well as many other derogatory claims, without comparison, context or factual/statistical support is not.
I write many comments and a few articles, and 99% of what I write or claim is supported by facts. Sometimes I do it to present an argument, sometimes I do it to counter an argument, or indeed a claim.
I have done so many times to Banks. He has never ever responded with anything more than a repeat of his opinion. He has never once presented context or data. In fact, like the Spineless jellyfish above, his default is to spout his opinion then disappear. He wouldn’t know a debate if it slapped him around the face.
He may as well just come here and say, in the famous words of Michael Pallin: “Is this the right room for argument” and be done with it.
Personally I will be glad to see the back of him.
Thank you guys for standing up for the facts. I can understand criticism on Arteta on his training regime. But I cannot understand the super harsh criticism and meltdown over Arsenal and Arteta over not winning the league. It sounds more like we re in relegation when you hear these so called supporters. Second place by a margin is a very very decent result and in potential a great platform to be in to make the last step. If people dont like the style of play of Arteta’s team, thats a whole different debate. But we only have to look at Tots to see where this goal scoring bonanza ride gets you. So untold keep calling those entitled whining so called supporters out. Arsenal and the team and the club need that kinda of real support.
I haven’t been on Untold Arsenal for quite some time, so please forgive my ignorance regarding the apparent vitriol directed towards Andrewbanks2024.
Based on the few posts in this article, it seems Andrewbanks2024’s crime is to repeatedly express an opinion, unsupported by facts, that Arsenal aren’t meeting his expectations. Do his comments really deserve the response here?
If you know Andrewbanks2024’s comments are going to upset you, why read them, unless you are the ‘administrator’?
Tim you points are valid, but there is a bit of extra history here. And on one think I would disagreed: I am not upset by his points, because each time he writes he seemingly unknown to himself, makes our points for us by just using statements without evidence.
The prime fact is that the headline on our home page is, as it has been for about 10 years, “supporting the club, the manager andthe team.” So writing a comment once a week or so saying either obvertly or implied that Arsenal need to sack the manager, is a bit dumb, in my view.
Second this correspondent unlike most here, does not seek to argue his point with any data or facts or anything. We have regularly shown that sacking a manager normally does not make things better. The writer ignores that point and never counters it with anything. He just expresses his opinion.
So you might argue, why not just ban him. The point is I like debate and analysis based on facts, and by having AndrewBanks make his points without any back up facts, he emphasising my point, and the point of this website, that football can be just the spouting of opinion, as he does, or it can be based on facts.
Thus I see his comments as a way of supporting what the writers and many of the readers do feel – that the instant approach of “it’s going wrong, sack the manager” is a dopey way of responding to a situation, not least because most managerial sackinigs don’t get followed by succeess. A few do, but most don’t.
So in a sense he is helping our case along by showing that the counter view, that sacking a manager is a good idea, is never based on any analysis. In short, he makes our point for us because in effect he has no logical basis or analysis. Most managerial changes following a downturn do not result in an upturn. It can do – Arsenal’s last change did work – but it took four years for the club to reach the top four.
Tony, thank you for taking the time to reply.
Maybe I’m suffering from sleep deprivation and my cognition isn’t up to my normal standards, but it doesn’t seem logical to ban someone who, as you claim, is making your point.
Even after reading your explanation, I still don’t see why Andrewbanks2024’s comments warrant the response they’ve received.
As a neutral I have commented many times on here.
It does amaze me how many people accept the “football journalists” as having the wisdom of Solomon when in fact they are normally biased and ill informed.
Just saying….
Tim
Tony has had the decency to respond to your post, and, as I feel it is mainly aimed at my comments I will also attempt to explain why I have the view of Banks that I do.
Banks has repeatedly expressed the same critical views of all things Arsenal for a long long time, 99% of the time without a single statistic to support such a view. Yes, it is his opinion, and you may feel he is entitled to repeat it ad infinitum. That’s up to you. I do not. Or at least not without comment and or criticism.
I am also entitled to express my opinion. But the point is, along side my opinion I provide information, data, statistics, evidence, to support my opinion. I am, or at least I am attempting to engage in what I consider to be reasoned debate. As we are now. As Tony has already done with you.
I have asked Banks many many times, politely, with no malice or ill will, to explain and or support his views with similar evidence, statistics and data. H point blank refuses,
or simply cannot do so.
Refusal to do so, on a site he knows full well is a site that puts great stock in statistical analysis rather than just opinion, is, as he well knows, contrary to the overarching approach of the sites host, and the vast majority of it’s contributors.
As such, I believe he is simply being confrontational for confrontations sake. He is a wind up. A troll. Whatever you want to call him.
Ask yourself Tim, how would you feel if Tony had ignored YOUR question? Frustrated? Angry?
Would you think Tony to be just plain rude? Without an answer? A coward?
How would you feel if what you saw as a perfectly legitimate question was repeatedly ignored?
I don’t know. Maybe you wouldn’t care. If that was the case you wouldn’t be like most people.
In the final analysis Tim, you are fully entitled to think Banks should be able to post unsubstantiated, baseless criticisms of our club, our manager, our players, and indeed Untold Arsenal and it’s regular contributors without comment, in whatever form he chooses. I do not.
If he wants to act like a wind up. A troll. I reserve the right to respond to him in whatever way I see fit.
I am sorry if that offends you Tim, as that is not my intention.
On the other hand, if I offend Banks that is no more than he does to me with his incessant and inane drivel. They call that ‘quits’ where I come from.
Nitram, we’ve exchanged viewpoints a few times in the past and all those exchanges have been cordial; in fact, I don’t recall an unpleasant exchange with anyone on Untold Arsenal.
Please be assured my initial post wasn’t ‘mainly’ directed at you; had it been I would have addressed the post to you. No, my post was directed at anyone who’d already posted, and, of course, that did include you.
Tony does not have a very good record of replying to my posts, so I was quite surprised he did. However, in Tony’s defence, most of my initial posts, like my initial post today, were not necessarily directed to any particular individual, but were instead simply offering an alternative viewpoint, often backed with supporting evidence because I know that’s beloved on this site.
Tony’s reasons for not replying to my past posts are probably many and varied, but I like to think that Tony was simply too busy to reply – I know I’m guilty of that sometimes.
Although you and Tony have replied to my initial post I have to confess, based on my personal experience, I’m still surprised by the reaction towards, what I thought was, a fellow Arsenal supporter.
Tim
“we’ve exchanged viewpoints a few times in the past and all those exchanges have been cordial”
Indeed we have, and they have, and that is part of my point.
You are not a wind up. You do not just give an unsupported opinion. Therefore we converse and exchange views.
Banks does not.
He is, in my opinion a narcissist, a wind up and a coward.
A narcissist because he believes his opinions are superior to facts.
A wind up because he knows full well that expressing an opinion that is unsupported by facts, in such as monosyllabic way, on a site such as this, is always going to invoke some sort of reaction. Well, he’s got one. He’s banned. Now he can go somewhere else where they will appreciate his ‘opinions’. There are plenty of options out there let me tell you. Which again feeds into the ‘wind up’ notion. Why here?
A coward, because he hasn’t got the spine to enter into a factual debate. He couldn’t have this exchange of views.
Be honest Tim, what harm would banning him do? More importantly, what good would keep publishing his posts do?
Apart from this debate, which is actually in reaction to Tony’s post not his, when does he ever add anything to the conversation?
Aside from constantly saying everything about Arsenal is rubbish, he offers nothing. Not even why they are rubbish. Why Calafiori is Rubbish. At least if he did that there would be a discussion, but he does none of that.
Will he be missed? By some maybe? By yourself maybe Tim? By Tony even? Not by me I’m afraid.
Anyway, that will have to be my last word on the subject. The Narcissist he is, he will be loving this.
We will chat again no doubt Tim.
COYG
I hesitate to enter into this particular exchange, but I suggest that Mr. Banks is one of the fellow Arsenal “supporters” who demands and expects that our players win every game and ensure that trophies are won as a result. Anything less is considered a disgrace and grounds for sacking the manager and making wholesale changes to the squad of players.
There is no recognition and certainly no credit given for the sustained improvements over recent years inn which Arsenal have become established in second place.
Also, no acknowledgement is made of the misfortune of long term injuries to so many key players at the same time, so that being in second place for so long and so far ahead of other teams does not count for anything and doesn’t alter the demand for the manager to be sacked.
People may be entitled to opinions. My view, however, is that some opinions are simply unfounded and unjustified, to an extent which others may find to be offensive if they are expressed in hostile terms towards the manager and players.
I may express frustration if Havertz misses a chance, Partey scuffs a shot, or Trossard loses the ball. However, my own playing expertise (historic) is confined to middle-range local league standard, so I am rational enough to know that I am not qualified to castigate any Arsenal player in public for a less than 10/10 performance
John L
“I may express frustration if Havertz misses a chance, Partey scuffs a shot, or Trossard loses the ball. However, my own playing expertise (historic) is confined to middle-range local league standard, so I am rational enough to know that I am not qualified to castigate any Arsenal player in public for a less than 10/10 performance”
Exactly. They are not perfect. We all know that, or at least should.
My default position is to support the club, the manager and the players, through good times and bad times. In fact, especially in bad times. Oddly enough, that’s what I thought being a ‘supporter’ was all about.
Maybe I’m wrong.
Nitram, I look forward to future exchanges.
Tim
Me too.