By Bulldog Drummond
While Arsenal continued to be overrun by injuries to players who we would normally have automatically in the side, Forsest appear to be more or less injury-free.
But one fact that is not generally commented upon – or at least not in the articles I have seen – is that of possession. Yes it is being said that Arsenal will have the most possession but there is more to it than that, for in checking the possession figures with fbref I also decided to take a look also at their “Total Distance” chart.
This measurement made in yards is the total distance players moves the ball while controlling it with the feet – the movement being in any direction.
Now this is a really weird measurement which appears in the second column below which is a reduced version of a chart provided by FBRef. It shows the different approach of the two sides and the risk that Forest take with their approach. It is in order of possession percentage.
| Pos | Distance ball moved | Club | Number of players used | Possession Percentage |
| 1 | 71042 | Manchester C | 27 | 61.0% |
| 2 | 57219 | Chelsea | 29 | 58.2% |
| 3 | 59553 | Tottenham Ho | 31 | 57.2% |
| 4 | 53880 | Liverpool | 24 | 56.4% |
| 5 | 49383 | Arsenal | 24 | 55.5% |
| 6 | 51873 | Manchester U | 27 | 54.0% |
| 18 | 37215 | Ipswich Town | 32 | 40.3% |
| 19 | 34455 | Nottingham F | 23 | 40.3% |
| 20 | 33992 | Everton | 25 | 40.2% |
Another interesting snippet from this table is that while using an above-average number of players is not really a good idea (see Ipswich), Forest have the lowest number of players used in the League, which means that players coming in to cover for an injury may well not have had much league experience this season.
But this also shows they are riding their luck in terms of injuries, and a bad run of injuries could totally disrupt the team – although obviously that has not happened. They have used 23 players and Southampton have used 34 (which is to say, 48% more players).
Now this table also shows that possession isn’t everything – but it is certainly very helpful in some cases. For we must notice the positions of Tottenham and Nottingham Forest in terms of their possession percentage and their league position. It is possible to have a low percentage of possession but still be near the top of the league. But that is not guaranteed.
What all this implies is that Arsenal need to use the possession the Forestian tactics allow, and punish the opposition, and continue doing this throughout the whole game happy in the amount of possession, while being patient about getting the goals. Because the chances are Forest will then seize a goal when given half a chance.
Forest are equal in ninth position with Brighton in terms of goals scored, but third in the league. That knowledge must be put to good use by Arsenal. For Arsenal getting a lead of a couple of goals should knock the wind out of the Forestian sails, as they will know they simply don’t score that many.
Sports Mole however predicts a goalless draw, and give us a team of
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Odegaard, Partey, Rice;
Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
90 Min suggest that Arsenal might drop Merino into midfield and add Sterling to the front line
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Rice, Merino, Odegaard;
Nwaneri, Trossard, Sterling.
Who Score take out Nwaneri and instead offer
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;
Rice, Partey, Odegaard;
Sterling Merino Trossard,
So I suspect it is going to be safe to say it is one of those combinations.
A Forestian win leaves them three points behind Arsenal, and Arsenal having had two successive defeats A win for Arsenal leaves them eight points behind Liverpool but nine points ahead of Forest. As ever, we shall see, and the media made up of people who are not managers will tell us what Arsenal should have done.
The last time Arsenal had two successive defeats in the league was at the end of 2023 when the results were a defeat to Aston Villa, a win against Brighton, a draw with Liverpool, a defeat to WHAM and a defeat to Fulham.
Although the defeat to WHAM was greeted as the end for Arteta and Arsenal by many writers, it was the first league defeat in 16 games, in three of which Arsenal scored five goals. So maybe things are not quite as gloomy as the media says. After all you can’t believe everything you read in the papers.
