One example proves that buying more and more players leads to a decline in performance.

 

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By Tony Attwood

One of the most curious features of the transfer window is the desire by seemingly quite a few Arsenal supporters for Arsenal to be more like Tottenham in terms of transfer dealings.   For Tottenham have already brought in three players for a cost of around £71m this summer, and Arsenal have not.   

So why should Arsenal follow the Tottenham model?  After all it is not as if it has been very successful in the past, something we can tell not only by their place in the league last season but also by the fact that of the four players who have left the club this season three of them are (or at least were, when I last looked a couple of days ago) without a club.   Yet somehow there is a view developed that bringing in players is good.  Although we have shown time and again that the most successful clubs generally have the fewest transfers ins in the summer before their success.

But this is not a one-off thing for Tottenham to rush out and buy players.  Last summer (that is the summer before their decline to being just above the relegation positions in the league) the club spent another fortune bringing in a staggering nine players on transfer fees. 

And because I know it was a long time ago let me remind you of the foot of the table last time around.  And yes Tottenham did finish above Leicester City – who we now hear are in such dire financial straits they could well be looking at a further relegation in a year’s time.   The Totts were 17th last season – their worst since 1977 when they were relegated.

And yet the media go on and on about how Arsenal should have a transfer strategy which is much more like Tottenham than anything Arsenal have done other than buying Rice.

In fact the list of Tottenham arrivals last summer is still something to behold: Solanke, Gray, Odobert, Bergvall, Kinsky, Tel, Yang, Danso, Scarlett, and Devine.   

As a result of such foolishness, Tottenham let nine players go last season and quite possibly will do the same this season.  And yet this is the “player churn” model is one that some people think Arsenal should follow!!!  As for Tottenham, rather additng to our amusement, this wasn’t a one-off.   If you want the details for the previous season follow that link, but in essence they had ten incoming players then, nine of which were for a fee.  And the basic essence of that club, and many others, is this to achieve success, change the manager and change the players.   And as we can see with Tottenham’s rapid decline in reecent years, it absolutely doesn’t work.

If for any reason you wanted to take an absolute opposite of the Tottenham Ho approach to buying and buying players, you might want to take a peek at Athletic Bilbao’s approach where they only recruit players who are either born or brought up in the Basque region.  The region has a population of around 3.2 million.  Just over a third of the size of London.

Now you might expect that to lead them into a certain amount of trouble – perhaps dropping down to the second or third tier of Spanish football, but no, they are the third most successful club in Spanish football in terms of trophies..

Tottenham on the other hand with their “buy anyone from anywhere as often as possible” policy (or so it sometimes seems) are the 15th most successful club in terms of winning the top League in England.  In this regard they can proclaim proudly to be the equals of Portsmouth, Burnley, Preston North End and Derby County.  (True they have won the FA Cup eight times.  But then Arsenal have won it 14 times).

Of course Tottenham are not like Bilbao, as they are owned by a billionaire with a recent criminal record.  Bilbao is owned by its members, rather like Barcelona, Real Madrid and Osasuna.   They also (unlike Tottenham Ho) broke even financially.

All this was achieved on a Bilbao reveue of €124.5m.   This compares with Tottenham’s revenue of £528m (a drop of 4% on the previous turnover figure.)   Arsenal’s revenue was £616.6 million, 17% above that of Tottenham.   And yet Tottenham have this super wonderful and rather expensive to enter new football stadium, which holds more people than Arsenal’s stadium and apparently makes Arsenal’s stadium seem rather dated.   (I haven’t been so I can’t confirm that).

Of course it is rather jolly for us to watch Tottenham follow a policy of buying and selling players while constantly changing managers – a policy which examination of club after club shows does not work in terms of lifting the club up the league.   But it is desperately sad to see Arsenal supporters influenced by the notion that Arsenal should follow Tottenham’s lead and go out and buy more and more players because “that’s what you have to do to be a success.”   Quite simply, as we have shown, buying players leads to a decline in league position more often than to a rise.

 

 

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