Leaving games early – are these figures right, and a look at BATE and injuries.

By Tony Attwood

There is a bit of research doing the rounds from an organisation called “Voucherbox” (which seems to have something to do with the Vouchers you get from people like Virgin) which even on the face of it looks so bizarre as to be unbelievable.  Yet they want us to believe it straight off.

It comes in two forms.   One version says

  • Early leavers duck out 7.5 minute before the final whistle on average

The other says

  • The average Premier League fan leaves a whole seven minutes and 37 seconds early from home games

It’s gibberish of course, but gibberish gets repeated, so let’s just see how gibberish it actually is.

First off, how do we count the numbers?  The first announcements (early leavers duck out 7.5 minutes before the final whistle on average) suggests that of the people who leave early, some leave (say) 15 minutes before the end of the game, while others leave 1 minute before the end.  Put them all together and divide by the number of early leavers and you get 7.5 mins.

It seems very high to me.  In my north bank season ticket yes quite a few people left before the end of some games – but by no means all.   But even in defeat the vast majority who did leave, (and they were a minority) left after the moment the added time sign went up – usually around 3 minutes before the end and later.   And  the number leaving before that was very modest, so the average would be much later.

But the second statement says “The average Premier League fan leaves a whole seven minutes and 37 seconds early from home games.”  Now that clearly indicates that all fans are being taken into account, not just the early leavers.

So since the majority of us stay to the end we ought to have some people leaving after about 15 minutes of the first half, and a sizeable number not turning up for the second half at all to make these numbers work.

But not all parts of the ground are the same.  This is my third season of sitting one place from the end of a row in the East Upper – which means if my pal on the right hand side of me gets up and goes a) I would notice and b) he would say goodbye and probably tell me why, since it would be very unusual.  Everyone else along the row up to the half way point, would have to force me to stand to let them by, and basically the only people who do this are the tourists.  The season ticket holders who make up 95% of the row I sit in don’t leave early.

Indeed such are the complaints about both late arrivals and early leavers I can’t imagine anyone regularly doing either in that part of the ground.

Thus everyday observation makes all this unlikely.  But when we do the numbers it looks weirder.

60,000 people in the ground.   Let’s assume half stay to the end and half leave early.  So if all the early leavers left 10 minutes before the end that would mean the average leaving early time would be 5 minutes.   Still not enough to make these numbers.  But have a look at the next match.  Is the ground half empty ten minutes before the end?

I don’t think so – and if it is on occasion, that is only “on occasion”.  There are many games where that is not the case.  Just think of some of the games where Arsenal has scored the winner in the dying minutes – was the ground half empty?   Remember Danny’s leap into the crowd after beating Leicester – was he leaping into a half empty set of seats?

Let’s move on to a little bit more about tonight’s game.

The Belarus League is very much based on the Spanish model with three teams so far ahead of the res that a team in fourth is closer to relegation than winning the league.  Here’s the current table.

# Team P W D L F A GD ts
1 Previous rank: 2 23 16 5 2 39 13 +26 53
2 Previous rank: 1 23 17 1 5 33 12 +21 52
3 23 16 3 4 44 11 +33 51
4 Previous rank: 6 23 10 8 5 32 18 +14 38

And here is the ground

And one more thing for this morning.  The injury league.


# TEAM Total down Last man out
1 Everton 8 W Rooney
2 Stoke City 6 B Martins Indi
3 Watford 6 N Chalobah
4 Tottenham Hotspur 5 C Eriksen
5 Manchester United 5 M Carrick
6 Huddersfield Town 5 D Williams
7 West Ham United 5 M Antonio
8 Arsenal 4 C Chambers
9 Burnley 4 J Walters
10 Brighton and Hove Albion 4 G Murray

So nothing really new there, but I do like to keep tabs.

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10 Replies to “Leaving games early – are these figures right, and a look at BATE and injuries.”

  1. From the department of creature of habit. Yesterday (Wednesday) I said to someone,
    ”Don’t forget to watch Arsenal on the box to night.” Ouch!

  2. @ colario – 28/09/2017 at 9:14 am – I was looking for a stream that was showing our game last night(my cable tv is down) , until I got a Youtube site that was showing us in training !
    Never ever thought that we’d be playing on Spursdays ! How the mighty are fallen !

  3. Come on, guys. After Tiny Totes managed to qualify for Champions League twice in a row, that competition has really lost its appeal. It’s only natural that we moved ourselves to Spurs-infection-less Europa League.

  4. I’m looking at Thursday night games as a new experience, quite exciting really.
    And also playing BATE is so much better for my self-confidence than playing Barca!

  5. I guess we are due for a new experience , but with our luck , one of those traditional giants will fall into our next group !

  6. After the media uncertain Aresnal 18 man match squad Le Prof took BayBaysaw, I think the below list of Gunners should be the actual Gunners Le Prof Jake taken to Baysaw to play BATE-Borisov tonight at the Borisov Arena for an Europa League Cup match. And from this list of 18 Gunners that’s looking to be authentic list, I will make my very final starts and bench from the list for the match.

    The 18 Gunners match squad:
    Ospina Macey Matersacker Holding Mustafi Walcott Giroud Wilshere Akpom ElNeny Maitland-Niles Willock Nelson Nketiah Dasilva Dragomir Gilmour McGuane.

    Now my 3-4-3 starts:
    Holding Mertesacker Mustafi
    Nelson Wilshere ElNeny Maitland-Nile
    Walcott Giroud Akpom.

    Bench: Macey Dragomir Gilmour McGuane Dasilva Willock Nketiah.

    I think I can remember Akpom once played wide before in the front in one match for Arsenal and was efficient there. So, being the senior to the rest of the young Gunners in the squad and a proven prolific goals scorer for Arsenal at junior level, I think he should be giving the nod to start at that left side of the front three ahead of any junior in the 18 man match day squad. And already Nelson and Maitland-Niles are starting as they are thought will be the 1 – 2 young Gunners Le Prof has said he’ll start in this match. I think am okay now with my starts & bench. Let’s wait to see what Le Prof’s own later will look like.

  7. Just reading on the guardian that Conte is not happy with schedules, what with playing on Wednesday and then Saturday noon….Poor chap….

    Interestingly when AW talks about the scheduling, no one pretty much mentions it or the ‘between the lines’ is : your fault if you play Thursdays…

    When Conte talks about it, well he’s got all the publicity he wants and all the justifications needed if on Saturday Chelsky do not win against $ity

    Apart from that, I do not get the logic of these early Saturday starter games, even more so when it is a big one. Maybe someone can explain me why they are played so early ?
    I mean a real reason !

  8. Good luck tonight lads and play well.

    Apparently TV want to move
    Sat December 23rd Arsenal – Liverpool (H) 15.00
    Sun December 24rd Arsenal – Liverpool (H) 16.00

    Police said no so it has been put at
    Sun December 24rd Arsenal – Liverpool (H) 12.00

    Why cant it stay on Sat as scheduled?
    Imagine those fans having to travel on xmas eve, we know how travel is on those sort of days.

  9. Sorry Charles ,was off line for awhile. Just go to BEHIND THE SCENES – Arsenal train ahead of BATE Borisov.
    Am still able to see it on my large screen . Home computer on the fritz.
    Sorry if it is too late .

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