By Bulldog Drummond
As you may recall I have been posting about predicting possible England results in the World Cup through looking for sequences, and following a few emails and comments decided to take the plunge and expand this approach further.
You might also recall that the process is very simple: it focuses on the issue of looking for runs of results, and then assuming that the run will continue. Of course, no run goes on forever, because every team can suddenly exceed their expectations and one team can be too relaxed and think it is all too easy. So the system is not perfect – but it is simple and it got the England result right.
I don’t have any special knowledge here – just a load of facts and figures; you can check . And when you do you might like to note a few odd and unpredictable local conditions. We might for example remember Walsall v Arsenal, perhaps the most famous although by no means the only Arsenal defeat to a lower league club. For that match Chapman rested much of the first team and tried out some previously untried reserve team players.
There was no limit on the number of spectators allowed in, and they ended up standing on the touch line doing everything possible to intimidate the players, with the pitch itself being nothing but mud. The inexperienced squad couldn’t cope.
So strange things can happen, and thinking of this I have chosen Uruguay v Russia for my next attempt at prediction. The game is on 25 June.
You may have heard that questions are being asked not just about Russia’s previous results but also the performance of their players, not least because the three players who have covered more ground than anyone else in the World Cup in the opening games are all Russian!
Golovin has covered 11,853m in 90 minutes, Samedov 11,679m and Gazinsky 11,392m. The nearest rival is Toni Kroos on 11,251m
So my point is oddities need to be taken into account. Will those Russians run just as much in this match?
I suspect not. I suspect they won’t be playing in fact and that will affect the result.
Russia of course, being the home nation, haven’t played competitive games for a while so that again can influence what we see – I really am giving myself a fair number of challenges here!
|07 Oct 2017||Russia v Korea Republic||W||4-2||International Friendly|
|10 Oct 2017||Russia v Iran||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|11 Nov 2017||Russia v Argentina||L||0-1||International Friendly|
|14 Nov 2017||Russia v Spain||D||3-3||International Friendly|
|23 Mar 2018||Russia v Brazil||L||0-3||International Friendly|
|27 Mar 2018||Russia v France||L||1-3||International Friendly|
|30 May 2018||Austria v Russia||L||1-0||International Friendly|
|05 Jun 2018||Russia v Turkey||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|14 Jun 2018||Russia v Saudi Arabia||W||5-0||FIFA World Cup|
|19 Jun 2018||Russia v Egypt||W||3-1||FIFA World Cup|
Who would have predicted those two wins after such a poor run of games prior to that – four defeats and two draws!
As for Uruguay…
Curiously their run is the same
|31 Aug 2017||Uruguay v Argentina||D||0-0||FIFA World Cup|
|05 Sep 2017||Paraguay v Uruguay||W||1-2||FIFA World Cup|
|05 Oct 2017||Venezuela v Uruguay||D||0-0||FIFA World Cup|
|10 Oct 2017||Uruguay v Bolivia||W||4-2||FIFA World Cup|
|10 Nov 2017||Poland v Uruguay||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|14 Nov 2017||Austria v Uruguay||L||2-1||International Friendly|
|23 Mar 2018||Uruguay v Czech Republic||W||2-0||International Friendly|
|26 Mar 2018||Wales v Uruguay||W||0-1||China Cup|
|08 Jun 2018||Uruguay v Uzbekistan||W||3-0||International Friendly|
|15 Jun 2018||Egypt v Uruguay||W||0-1||FIFA World Cup|
|20 Jun 2018||Uruguay v Saudi Arabia||W||1-0||FIFA World Cup|
They have been doing well but not scoring quite so often – five consecutive wins, following a sequence of two wins, three draws and one defeat.
I have selected this match not just because of the oddity of the Russian players’ running levels, but also because there is one other factor: the group is already done and dusted – both these teams have qualified.
I would guess that because both teams have been winning recently, a good result to look for would be a draw.
I don’t think Uruguay will let Russia run away with another goal fest, and I suspect Russia will change its squad around.
Uruguay’s three goalless draws show that they know how to shut up shop. I’d go with that. 0-0, with a second option of 1-1.
Of course I don’t have any special knowledge – I just find charts interesting.
- Last season the table after 3 games was headline news. But probably not this season
- 117 players tipped as coming to Arsenal before the window closes
- Why Arsenal recruited a new defence first, then a new attack
- After two games we can start to make one or two judgements
- Winning the opening two league games is not that common for Arsenal