A guide to who will finish where this season across Europe

by Andrew Crawshaw

I started today by updating my database of Arsenal players and adding in the current estimated player values from Transfermarkt.com.  I then remembered Tony’s predictions regarding the winners of various leagues across Europe (which I think he has got right) and thought I would provide the logic behind his predictions.  The transfer values of players isn’t of course a totally reliable predictor of how things will turn out but, by and large, it isn’t too far out.

Here are the aggregated player values for the likely leading clubs in various leagues across Europe with an added column showing the percentage of the total league value  the club figure represents.

France Ligue 1 – Total league player value £2.47b

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 PSG 749.07 30.3
2 Olympic Lyonais 317.07 12.8
3 Monaco 257.94 10.4
4 Marseille 226.17 9.2
5 OGC Nice 114.84 4.6
6 Stade Rennais 103.28 4.2

This is a completely one-sided league.  PSG have over 30% of the league value and it will be a miracle if they fail to win the league.  Second, third and fourth should go to Olympic, Monaco and Marseille but not necessarily in that order.

Germany Bundesliga – Total league player value £3.25b

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 Bayern Munich 791.69 24.4
2 Bayern Leverkusen 325.69 10.0
3 Borussia Dortmund 322.43 9.9
4 RB Leipzig 269.78 8.3
5 FC Shalke 04 221.13 6.8
6 TSG Hoffenheim 181.89 5.6

Another one team league – Bayern Munich with virtually one quarter of the total player value, more than twice that of their nearest rivals.  Not much to chose between Leverkusen, Dortmund and Leipzig for positions two to four and It wouldn’t be a total surprise for Shalke or Hoffenheim to get into the minor placings.  For first place it will be Bayern again – not worth opening a book on.

Italy Serie A – Total league player value £3.93b

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 Juventus 723.78 18.4
2 Inter Milan 485.78 12.4
3 Napoli 449.98 11.4
4 AC Milan 414.45 10.5
5 AS Roma 341.28 8.7
6 Lazio 310.73 7.9
7 Fiorentina 189.27 4.8

Not quite as one sided as some of the other leagues but Juve must be a red-hot favourite, nearly a fifth of the total player value and a squad worth 50% more than any one else.  Second, third and fourth between Inter, Napoli and AC Milan.

Portugal Liga NOS – Total League Player Value £827.71m (Less than the top two clubs in the EPL)

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 Benfica 210.38 25.4
2 FC Porto 207.79 25.1
3 Sporting CP 143.89 17.4
4 Braga 67.01 8.1

This should be a two-horse race between Benfica and Porto with Sporting CP in third place.

Scotland – Premiership – Total Player Value £131.04m (less than every club in the PL with the exception of Bournemouth, Wolves, Huddersfield and Cardiff!)

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 Celtic 50.63 38.0
2 Rangers 24.53 18.4
3 Heart of Midlothian 10.6 7.9
4 Aberdeen 7.83 5.9
5 Hibernian 7.67 5.7

This is the biggest shoo-in of all of the European Leagues.  Celtic will undoubtably win by a distance, Rangers should come second, Herts third although pushed by Aberdeen and Hibernian.

England Premier League – Total Player Value £7.06b (virtually the same as Germany and Italy combined)

Likely Position Team Squad Value £m % of League value
1 Manchester City 957.6 13.6
2 Chelsea 863.1 12.2
3 Liverpool 816.75 11.6
4 Manchester United 762.3 10.8
5 Tottenham Hotspur 751.05 10.6
6 Arsenal 522.9 7.4
7 Everton 322.65 4.6

This is perhaps the most difficult league to accurately predict.  Man City have a squad that is worth nearly £100m more than Chelsea and £400m more than Arsenal who have the Sixth highest squad value. 

Much of this extra depth comes from the strength in depth which is what is likely to result in a league win.  I will therefore say that City are likely to win the league, second to fifth are likely to be Chelsea, Liverpool, United and Tottenham.  On paper Arsenal are likely to remain in sixth, but I have a feeling that we are likely to out-perform our squad value and finish in the top four.  Should this happen it will be a significant achievement as that would mean us doing better than teams with 50% or more squad value – a tall order.  Time alone will tell.




2 Replies to “A guide to who will finish where this season across Europe”

  1. Thanks Andrew. Here are some factors that inevitably determine the EPL winners as well;

    1) the PGMOL…..worth about 8-11 points to any team they favour and definitely will cost Arsenal at least 8-10 points this season,

    2) the injury league…..our new players will be targeted once it becomes clear that Arsenal are winning because of them, so by January expect 2-4 players out long-term,

    3) team chemistry: United and Chelsea appear to be having troubles of their own and could surprise everyone by bombing out this season, City should have what it takes to stay on top but Liverpool seems to have improved their team, as have we. Tottenham still have a good team but can they repeat last season’s success at their new stadium?

    4) The new manager effect: Unai seems to be shaping his team exactly as he wants it to be and the new additions are perfect fits to his attacking Football and pressing,defensive approach. We also have a great deal of youth and reserve talent and the competition is bringing out the best in our kids so maybe our bench is now strong enough to see us past all the above points.

    I predict a second place finish, as we’ll NEVER be permitted to win the league while the PGMOL reigns supreme.

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