The big six: how the transfers are going to far, and ignoring Liverpool’s decline

• Hakim Ziyech: Winger — from Ajax: £33.6m

• Timo Werner: Forward — from RB Leipzig:£47.5m

• Xavier Mbuyamba: Defender — from Barcelona: Undisclosed

• Ben Chilwell: Defender — from Leicester City: £50m

• Malang Sarr: Defender — from Nice: free

• Thiago Silva: Defender — from Paris Saint-Germain: free

• Kai Havertz: Winger — from Bayer Leverkusen: £72m

Because for the media transfers mean success (although that was not always the case by any means last sesaon) they are now highly rated.  And add in the media’s propensity in its predictions to make next season the same as last season, and we have a typical media prediction list of

1: Manchester City

2: Liverpool

3: Chelsea

4: Manchester United

5: Arsenal

It is interesting that Manchester United are being so heavily ticked to come in above Arsenal, based on… well what?  Primarily a good run of league matches from 1 February onwards.

What is particularly interesting is that Ferguson left Manchester United in 2013, and so they have had quite a lot time to rebuild since then.  And they have had some post Ferguson success, winning the FA Cup,  the League Cup, and the Europa League.  But their league positions from 2013/14 onward have been much the same as ours…

2nd (once), 3rd (once), 4th (once), 5th (once), 6th (twice) and 7th (once).

During the same spell Arsenal have won the FA Cup four times.  Our league position has been

2nd (once) 3rd (once), 4th (once), 5th (twice), 6th (once), 8th (once)

I have gone to the lengths of spelling this out because transfers, the manager, and recent results is what all the media build their predictions on.   So that Manchester United run of just two defeats in the last 25 league and cup games is what is making the columnists think that Manchester United is on the way up.

But there is a problem with this approach, for just because a team is in a run of good results it doesn’t mean that is going to be a run that lasts and lasts.

Last season Liverpool most certainly had a run of good results and went on to win the league, but eventually their run came to an end.  On 18 February Liverpool lost to Atletico Madrid and went on to lose just under half of their next 13 games.

Now when I was discussing this ahead of writing this little piece, scorn passed across the faces of fellow Untolders, so let me give you Liverpool’s run.

Five victories, six defeats, one draw.   Not exactly the form of champions during that spell.   And yet I have not seen anyone really taking this into account.

In other words the upturn in form by Manchester United is recognised and expected to continue, the downturn in form of Liverpool is not recognised and not expected to continue.

This might be true of course, Man United might jog along while Liverpool might fly to the top, but there is no reasoning here.  It is all gut feeling.  Which means your gut feeling is as good as any of those experts pontificating away in the media.

• The new big six? A big eight? Just a big four again? A big two?
• Penalties: are they fairly distributed among the clubs or is there a bias?
• A prime example of the extraordinary bias in the media against Arsenal