By Bulldog Drummond
This is the season where statistics have been turned upside down, and the fact that the journalists, commentators and writers fail to deal with this topic (in the mistaken belief that the football going public don’t understand maths or don’t like statistics) leaves the field open to us.
As we showed this morning, if we compare Tottenham’s results at home with Arsenal’s results away we get results that are really similar. In case you missed the first piece of the day here is the key table once more…
Here we compare the Premier League table which has home results only (for Tottenham) and away results only (for Arsenal)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tottenham Hot home matches only | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 14 | Arsenal away matches only | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
The clubs are thus not that far apart. Here are Tottenham’s last five home games
| Date | Game | Res | Score | Competition |
| 18 Oct 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United | D | 3-3 | Premier League |
| 22 Oct 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v LASK Linz | W | 3-0 | Europa League |
| 1 Nov 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton and Hove Albion | W | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 21 Nov 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 26 Nov 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v PFC Ludogorets Razgrad | W | 4-0 | Europa League |
And Arsenal’s last five away games. I have excluded Arsenal’s games in the Trophy as Tottenham for some reason do not participate in that competition.
| Date | Game | Res | Score | Competition |
| 17 Oct 2020 | Manchester City v Arsenal | L | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 22 Oct 2020 | Rapid Wien v Arsenal | W | 1-2 | Europa League |
| 01 Nov 2020 | Manchester United v Arsenal | W | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Leeds United v Arsenal | D | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 26 Nov 2020 | Molde v Arsenal | W | 0-3 | Europa League |
Obviously in this comparison Tottenham have the upper hand having won four of their last five home games in the Europa and the Premier League, while Arsenal away have three wins, one draw and one defeat. But as we see in the totals chart if we go back to the start of the season, the clubs are very close together when comparing Tottenham at home and Arsenal away.
The Injury Chart
Arsenal are in a much improved position this week while Tottenham have had some problems. The table shows the number of men either injured or suspended for this weekend’s game.
- Liverpool: 11
- Aston Villa: 8
- Brighton and Hove Albion: 8
- Newcastle United: 8
- Burnley: 7
- Crystal Palace: 6
- Leeds United: 6
- Tottenham Hot: 6
- Leicester “Penalties” City: 5
- Arsenal: 4
- Southampton: 4
- West Bromwich Albion: 4
- Everton: 3
- Fulham: 3
- Manchester United: 3
- Sheffield United: 3
- West Ham United: 3
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 3
- Manchester City: 1
- Chelsea: 0
This is a major decline in injured / suspended players for Arsenal. And the great news is that the entry for Martinelli has changed – he is aiming to play under 23 football this month. I can’t imagine that Partey will be rushed back today of all days. Pepe is on his final appearance on the naughty step.
| Player | Reason | Further Detail | Potential Return | Condition | Status |
| Gabriel Martinelli | Knee Injury | Dec 02: “Aiming to participate in an under-23s match before the end of December.” | 08/01/2021 | None | Ruled Out |
| Nicolas Pepe | Suspended | Sending Off – Red Card | 14/12/2020 | None | Ruled Out |
| Thomas Partey | Thigh Injury | Dec 02: “He is really pushing every day, but he hasn’t trained with the team yet so let’s see if he can get a session or two and then assess him.” | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 50% |
| David Luiz Moreira Marinho | Head/Face Injury | Dec 02: “I think he will be fit to play if the scar is healing properly and he is comfortable heading the ball, there shouldn’t be any problems.” | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness | 75% |
Tottenham’s list again from Physioroom.com as ever gives us these names. It is interesting in comparing the way the manager of Tottenham describes injuries and the way the manager of Arsenal does.
| Player | Reason | Further Detail | Potential Return | Condition | Status |
| Hugo Lloris | Other | Undisclosed | 13/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 50% |
| Toby Alderweireld | Groin/Hip/ Pelvic Injury | In his process of recovery, he’s doing very well and there is a chance that he plays.” | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 75% |
| Harry Kane | Other | Dec 03: “I believe he’s going to be fit. I’m not sure, he’s on treatment. But I could be now doing some bluff or trying to pretend that he’s in big trouble. He’s not in big trouble. I believe he’s going to play.” | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 75% |
| Sergio Reguilon | Other | Undisclosed | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 75% |
| Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais | Other | Undisclosed | 06/12/2020 | Late Fitness Test | 50% |
| Erik Lamela | Calf/Shin/ Heel Injury | Nov 25: “Erik I don’t think back this week for tomorrow or for Sunday. I think I can say that.” | No Return Date | None | 25% |
More anon…
- Tottenham v Arsenal: unexpected statistics point to an unexpected result
- Slightly confused BT Sprout thinks away teams “might” be doing better
- The four PL clubs that are getting very special treatment from referees.
- What on earth is wrong with Arsenal. The media speak out.
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All IS lost until our players start to show some real balls and actually get first to the second balls. They are the most talented and the laziest team in Britain. Arteta needs to put the fear of God into them. They play at 70% and arrogantly for most of the game and then show what they can do in the last 15 minutes, when it’s too late. Either that or they turn it on for 20 minutes then think the game is in the bag and coast and end up losing cos they are overpaid and under worked.
I don’t normally say this sort of thing but it’s been this way a long time. I think Arteta won’t take any shit but I’m not sure. If he is firm and doesn’t tolerate lazy primadonnas, we will compete for everything. Give them a kick up the backside like Mourinho does.
Expect nothing tomorrow unless they actually play for their silly money and remember that they are some of the most privileged people on planet earth.