by Bulldog Drummond
In more normal times this would be a home win banker, but now… what with Southampton being near the top and Arsenal near the bottom, and with away wins being more common than home wins this seems less and less likely.
A look at the statistics chart shows us what sort of game we will have
|Club||Tackles||Fouls||Tackles per foul||Yellow cards||Fouls per yellow||Penalties for||Penalties against||Lge pos|
Southampton will tackle, tackle and tackle nearly 60% more times than Arsenal during the course of the game, and will commit more fouls – but not in proportion. Indeed because they get away with more fouls per yellow card than Arsenal, we’ll end up with the yellows, while they foul away. Where teams can get away with it, it is a handy tactic to have. And although it doesn’t result in great football, given our current position, it looks like a route we ought to be following.
We are currently doing better at home than Manchester United are, but that’s about all that can be said for our home form.
|7||West Ham United||6||3||1||2||9||7||2||10|
|15||West Bromwich Albion||6||1||2||3||5||12||-7||5|
I can’t imagine when the last time was we had six points from six home games. Probably during Bertie Mee’s era.
Southampton away are a different proposition…
Only one defeat for them away from home so far and they have scored more than twice as many goals away as we have at home.
Despite the Guardian infamously telling us that the away advantage has evaporated this is certainly not the case in the Premier League. Out of 117 games, 50 have been away wins, 22 have been draws, and 45 home wins. In percentages that is
- 43% away wins
- 38% home wins
- 19% draws
So the away wins are still out in front, but the gap is narrowing, although the figures are still nothing like the times when the crowd is present, because as the LSE research shows, referees are influenced by the crowd.
But with Southampton’s position in the league, and Arsenal’s problems that could be seen in the last game, this could be a difficult match.
We are not helped by the injury situation either.. Figures are from physioroom.com (although they are showing eight men missing, I think it is seven…)
- Liverpool: 9
- Aston Villa: 8
- Arsenal: 7
- Newcastle United: 6
- Crystal Palace: 5
- Everton: 5
- Leicester City: 5
- West Bromwich Albion: 5
As ever the question returns – if Arsenal’s injuries in the past were caused by Wenger’s terrible training methods, how come we are still at the top of the list? No one wants to answer that it seems, but there were so many people who were so certain that it was all his fault. Like that wretched S. Robson for one.
However to be fair, three of our missing men are out for disciplinary issues….
|Player||Reason||Further Detail||Potential Return||Condition||Status|
|Granit Xhaka||Suspended||Sending Off – Red Card||26/12/2020||Currently Being Assessed||Ruled Out|
|Hector Bellerin||Suspended||5 Yellow Cards||19/12/2020||None||Ruled Out|
|David Luiz Moreira Marinho||Head/Face Injury||Dec 11: “We will have to assess him today and tomorrow to see how he is feeling and whether his is able to compete or not.”||16/12/2020||None||50%|
|Reiss Nelson||Head/Face Injury||Head Injury||16/12/2020||None||50%|
|Thomas Partey||Thigh Injury||Dec 11: “Thomas will be out for a few games. It is the same area where he got injured previously, we will have to see how long it is going to take to heal.”||No Return Date||None||Ruled Out|
|Gabriel Martinelli||Other||Dec 11: “Played his first 45 minutes for a long time [U21s vs AFC Wimbledon], he came through the game and felt really good.”||No Return Date||Currently Being Assessed||50%|
According to Physioroom Southampton seem to have no injuries at all.
More on the match anon.
- The strange Premier League figures continue to look really odd
- Arsenal are almost the cleanest team in the league, so why are people getting excited?
- How the media provides a cover for money laundering in football.
- How Arsenal could use the referees to reach the PL’s top 4
- Three years after the events, Infantino in yet another Fifa corruption case
- The home and away scandal: ignorance, or cover up?
- The reason why Liverpool and Man C are ahead of Arsenal.
- How which referee a club gets has a major impact on the result of each game
- The statistical evidence that shows PGMO are biased against Arsenal
- How European football has taken up the fight against clubs breaking FFP