Crystal Palace away: the stats no other site will give you.

By Bulldog Drummond

As ever we’ll take a peek at the very simple comparison table that has been shown to give one of the better forms of prediction for forthcoming matches – the recent games taking into account where they were played and what competition they were in.

Of late Arsenal’s away form has been rather good when it comes to league games

Date Game Res Score Competition
28 Feb 2021 Leicester City v Arsenal W 1-3 Premier League
06 Mar 2021 Burnley v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
21 Mar 2021 West Ham United v Arsenal D 3-3 Premier League
11 Apr 2021 Sheffield United v Arsenal W 0-3 Premier League
02 May 2021 Newcastle United v Arsenal W 0-2 Premier League
12 May 2021 Chelsea v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League

And let’s have a look at Crystal Palace’s home form.

Date Game Res Score Competition
28 Feb 2021 Crystal Palace v Fulham D 0-0 Premier League
03 Mar 2021 Crystal Palace v Manchester United D 0-0 Premier League
13 Mar 2021 Crystal Palace v West Bromwich W 1-0 Premier League
10 Apr 2021 Crystal Palace v Chelsea L 1-4 Premier League
01 May 2021 Crystal Palace v Manchester City L 0-2 Premier League
16 May 2021 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa W 3-2 Premier League

Palace’s two home wins have been against teams who we might call “crumbling” when it comes to this season.  Aston Villa started with an absolute flourish but have declined of late and West Bromwich under their manager with the well-known tactics have been relegated.

Our draw with West Ham showed a remarkable fighting spirit, but Burnley… well they seem to have a set of rules agreed with referees all of their own.

But overall, very satisfactory.  Four wins, two draws for us, two wins, two draws and two defeats for them.

So, to move on to the second table that has also helped quite a lot in seeing where things will go in a forthcoming game.  Tackles, fouls and yellow cards.  What do we have to worry about from the referee.

Club Tackles Fouls Yellows Tackle/foul Foul/Yellow
Arsenal 434 328 46 1.32 7.13
Crystal Palace 592 394 50 1.50 7.88
Difference 158 66 4

As we can see, Arsenal (following their strategic plan) have cut the number of tackles down, and remain the least tackling club in the league.  As a result we give away fewer fouls than before and get fewer yellow cards than before.

But this is not because we are bad at tackling, but because of the propensity for referees to give fouls against Arsenal and yellow cards against Arsenal much more readily than any other club.

Palace have a foul given against them far less often than Arsenal for each tackle, and a yellow card given against them far less often for each foul.  As the final row shows they have committed 66 more fouls than Arsenal but only got four more yellow cards.

In short they get away with it far more than Arsenal – which is why (because this happens across the League) Arsenal have had to cut down on their tackling.  This is probably why the Premier League’s own statistics that are available on line are incomplete.  They refuse to show the total of fouls per team, and have done all season.

Two final tables for this opening review – the home and away difference…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
7 Arsenal away 18 9 3 6 28 17 11 30
12 Crystal Palace home 18 6 5 7 19 29 -10 23

Clearly we are much stronger away than Palace are at home, with a goal difference 21 better and seven more points gained.  These figures suggest a 2-1 win to Arsenal despite the fact that they will be able to tackle and foul far more than us before any action is taken.

So far it is looking rather promising.

Fifa in crisis

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