By Bulldog Drummond
Taking our figures from the Premier League Injuries table the Arsenal situation looks to be improving in terms of the number of injuries sustained.
And although I’m sure we would all have preferred to have Arsenal in a Euro competition than out, the bonus for us is that without the midweek travel and game, the disruption to the team is much reduced.
Looking at the activities of the Tiny Totts who took the final Euro place from us, Steven Bergwijn and Lucas Moura limped off for the totties and of course they have a Premier League match against Chelsea in within three days of that escapade. Son Heung-min is injured, and Giovani Lo Celso is playing video games in a quarantine camp in Croatia until Saturday.
Here is the list of clubs by the number of players out, with the tinies still top of the injury league even if not the Premier League itself.
- Tottenham Hots: 9
- Newcastle United: 8
- Brighton and Hove: 7
- Manchester United: 6
- Norwich City: 6
- Aston Villa: 5
- Manchester City: 5
- Burnley: 4
- Leeds United: 4
- Leicester City: 4
- Liverpool: 4
- Southampton: 4
- Watford: 4
- Arsenal: 3
Here’s our list taken from Premier Injuries
|Granit Xhaka||Suspended||Sending Off – Red Card||26/09/2021||Ruled Out|
|Mohamed Elneny||Thigh Injury||Sept 16: “Mo has worked hard with the medical team after suffering a hamstring strain and is aiming to be back in full training next week.”||26/09/2021||50%|
|Rob Holding||Knee Injury||Sept 16: “Rob sustained heavy bruising during training ahead of the Norwich match. He has progressed his rehab back into training but will not be available for Saturday.”||22/09/2021||50%|
There’s a contradiction I think for Rob Holding in that Arsenal are saying he will not be available for Saturday, yet Premier Injuries have him down for 50% chance. I think neither Mo Elneny nor Rob Holding will be in the squad.
The Burnley four are Nathan Collins who is rated 75%, plus Connor Roberts, Dale Stephens and Kevin Long who are all definitely out.
Here is the comparative home and away chart as ever
That’s of course not telling us much except that perhaps the most likely outcome is a goalless draw.
Let’s also have a look at last season
|17||Burnley home 20/21||19||4||6||9||14||27||-13||18|
|7||Arsenal away 20/21||19||10||3||6||31||18||13||33|
Now we are going to have problems comparing with last season because last season had no crowds in the ground for the most part, and we know that that situation favoured the away teams. As the evidence we have reported from the University of London research has shown, this is primarily because the home bias of referees caused by the crowd was no longer present. We can expect the home bias to return this season.
There have been 40 “home games” played this season (obviously two per club) and 19 of them have been home wins, nine have been draws and 12 away wins. This compares with 380 games last season, almost all totally behind closed doors, with 144 home wins, 153 away wins and 83 draws.
Comparing the percentages we get
|Season||Home wins||Away wins||Draws|
|2020/21 (no crowds)||38%||40%||22%|
|2021/22 (with crowds)||47.5%||30%||22.5%|
As we have said many times, the clubs, authorities and media will not publish this data because immediately it raises the question: why did home wins decline? And the answer as noted is because there was no crowd pressure on referees, as proven by the LSE research we have regularly reported.
This of course cannot be reported by the referee supporting media since it undermines the PGMO claim that referees are 98% accurate. They can’t be if their decisions are swayed by the crowd.
This in turn removes the notion that the comparative figures for clubs in terms of the percentage fouls given per tackle, is simply down to the ferocity of the tackling in the first place. Referees are influenced by the crowd, and sadly for Arsenal, the club has attracted over the years a crowd that is rather negative towards the team, thus reducing the influence they could have (and which crowds do have) in other venues.
Onto the transfers: Burnley brought in six players this summer.
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