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Arsenal v Burnley: injuries, home/away stats and crowd influence on refs

By Bulldog Drummond

Taking our figures from the Premier League Injuries table  the Arsenal situation looks to be improving in terms of the number of injuries sustained. 

And although I’m sure we would all have preferred to have Arsenal in a Euro competition than out, the bonus for us is that without the midweek travel and game, the disruption to the team is much reduced.

Looking at the activities of the Tiny Totts who took the final Euro place from us, Steven Bergwijn and Lucas Moura limped off for the totties and of course they have a Premier League match against Chelsea in within three days of that escapade.   Son Heung-min is injured, and  Giovani Lo Celso is playing video games in a quarantine camp in Croatia until Saturday.

Here is the list of clubs by the number of players out, with the tinies still top of the injury league even if not the Premier League itself.

  1. Tottenham Hots: 9
  2. Newcastle United: 8
  3. Brighton and Hove: 7
  4. Manchester United: 6
  5. Norwich City: 6
  6. Aston Villa: 5
  7. Manchester City: 5
  8. Burnley: 4
  9. Leeds United: 4
  10. Leicester City: 4
  11. Liverpool: 4
  12. Southampton: 4
  13. Watford: 4
  14. Arsenal: 3

Here’s our list taken from Premier Injuries

Player Reason Further Detail Return Status
Granit Xhaka Suspended Sending Off – Red Card 26/09/2021 Ruled Out
Mohamed Elneny Thigh Injury Sept 16: “Mo has worked hard with the medical team after suffering a hamstring strain and is aiming to be back in full training next week.” 26/09/2021 50%
Rob Holding Knee Injury Sept 16: “Rob sustained heavy bruising during training ahead of the Norwich match. He has progressed his rehab back into training but will not be available for Saturday.” 22/09/2021 50%

There’s a contradiction I think for Rob Holding in that Arsenal are saying he will not be available for Saturday, yet Premier Injuries have him down for 50% chance.  I think neither Mo Elneny nor Rob Holding will be in the squad.

The Burnley four are Nathan Collins who is rated 75%, plus Connor Roberts, Dale Stephens and Kevin Long who are all definitely out.

Here is the comparative home and away chart as ever

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Burnley home 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1
20 Arsenal away 2 0 0 2 0 7 -7 0

That’s of course not telling us much except that perhaps the most likely outcome is a goalless draw.

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Let’s also have a look at last season

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
17 Burnley home 20/21 19 4 6 9 14 27 -13 18
7 Arsenal away 20/21 19 10 3 6 31 18 13 33

Now we are going to have problems comparing with last season because last season had no crowds in the ground for the most part, and we know that that situation favoured the away teams.  As the evidence we have reported from the University of London research has shown, this is primarily because the home bias of referees caused by the crowd was no longer present.   We can expect the home bias to return this season.

There have been 40 “home games” played this season (obviously two per club) and 19 of them have been home wins, nine have been draws and 12 away wins.   This compares with 380 games last season, almost all totally behind closed doors, with 144 home wins, 153 away wins and 83 draws.

Comparing the percentages we get

Season Home wins Away wins Draws
2020/21 (no crowds) 38% 40% 22%
2021/22 (with crowds) 47.5% 30% 22.5%

As we have said many times, the clubs, authorities and media will not publish this data because immediately it raises the question: why did home wins decline?  And the answer as noted is because there was no crowd pressure on referees, as proven by the LSE research we have regularly reported.

This of course cannot be reported by the referee supporting media since it undermines the PGMO claim that referees are 98% accurate.  They can’t be if their decisions are swayed by the crowd.

This in turn removes the notion that the comparative figures for clubs in terms of the percentage fouls given per tackle, is simply down to the ferocity of the tackling in the first place.   Referees are influenced by the crowd, and sadly for Arsenal, the club has attracted over the years a crowd that is rather negative towards the team, thus reducing the influence they could have (and which crowds do have) in other venues.

Onto the transfers: Burnley brought in six players this summer.

Player Position Age Value est From
Maxwel Cornet Left back 24 £10.80m Lyon
Nathan Collins Centre back 20 £7.20m Stoke
Connor Roberts Right back 25 £4.05m Swansea
Jacob Bedeau Centre back 21 £405,000 Scunthorpe
Aaron Lennon Right Wing 34 £990,000 Kayserispor
Wayne Hennessey Goal 34 £900,000 Crystal Palace

Arsenal as we know bought in Ben White, Martin Odegaard, Aaron Ramsdale, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuna Tavares, as a reported cost of around £150m – so quite a difference.

More on the game shortly.

4 comments to Arsenal v Burnley: injuries, home/away stats and crowd influence on refs

  • Anthony Taylor has refereed Burnley 21 times, with a total of 26 yellow cards awarded to Burnley, but no red cards. In 16 of these games, Burnley was the home team. Mr. Taylor doesn’t travel well. Burnley have won only 4 times.

    Anthony Taylor has refereed Arsenal 39 times. with a total of 60 yellow cards awarded to Arsenal, three second yellow cards, and three straight red cards. We have only won one of the last seven away games that Taylor has refereed.

    Not really what I would call “balanced”, or “evening out in the end”.

  • mick shelley

    seismic
    Is there a single ref of whom we could say “Oh great we have got Dave Blogs this weekend, he is always refs us fairly”.
    I can’t think of one.

  • Mick. If you asked me that 10 years ago, I could have given 2 or 3 names. Nowadays, I can’t think of any referees in the PL who fit that description.

  • Nitram

    mick

    Michael Oliver was a referee I never dreaded.

    I think it was Michael Oliver that refereed us up at Old Trafford in the FA Cup back in the day and in the face of extreme provocation trying to handle a United side hell bent on kicking us off the park and diving all over the place, Oliver was having none of it. It was a joy to watch.

    We won and suffice to say Oliver’s performance wasn’t well received.

    Alas he has slowly shifted over to the dark side.

    What this proves to me is that these referees are perfectly capable of being even handed, even in the face of extreme provocation, it’s just they choose not to be, and given the abuse they get every time they are deemed to of been too ‘kind’ to us, who can blame them ?

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