Arsenal v Fulham: what the statistics tell us ahead of the game

 

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By Bulldog Drummond

We’re always looking for new approaches when presenting matches so here is another way of looking forward to a match, courtesy of some statistics we have not used before.  These come from the WhoScored site but the commentary is ours.   (Unless you disagree in which case we might deny it).

 

club	P	Goals	Shots pg	yellows	Possession	Pass	Aerials Won	Rating
Arsenal	3	9	14.3	4	50.6%	85.3%	16	6.88
Fulham	3	5	12	8	38.7%	68.1%	18.7	6.63

 

Obviously this early in the season and the clubs will not be so noticeably different, but there are one or two pointers already – most noticeably here, the number of yellow cards (Fulham have double our total) and the amount of possession – we are much more a possession-based team than Fulham.  Fulham have a little over a third possession in matches this season on average, while we have over half of the possession.

And even more so, the pass rate success is astoundingly different.  We have over 17% more possession per match than Fulham – and that really is quite a difference when maintained over three games.

The only thing this first table shows that gives Fulham the advantage is the number of aerials won, except for one thing.  There is a way of playing in which players can allow the opposition defenders to leap to head the ball, knowing that the attack will be quicker at moving on the ball as it drops.

 

Defence

 

club	games	Shots pg	Tackles pg	Interceptions pg	Fouls pg	Offsides pg	Rating
Arsenal	3	7.3	17	9	12	2.3	6.88
Fulham	3	10.3	18.7	10	11.3	3	6.63

 

PG = Per game.   So we get 30% more shorts per game, and slighly more tackles and interceptions per game.   But our number of fouls per game is lower.

Attack

 

club	games	Shots pg	Shots OT pg*	Dribbles pg	Fouled pg	Rating
Arsenal	3	14.3	5	12	12.3	6.88
Fulham	3	12	5	4.3	7.3	6.63

 

*Shots on target per game.

So we are delivering more shots, but not more on target.  We are using dribbles nearly three times as much as Fulham, and we are being fouled two-thirds more than Fulham – which tells us quite a bit about the way teams are defending against Arsenal.

 

Shots

 

Tournament	games	Total	Out Of Box	Six Yard Box	penalty area	Rating
Arsenal	3	14.3	3	2	9.3	6.88
Fulham	3	12	2.7	1.7	7.7	6.63

 

Here we can see we are shooting slightly more often, and exceeding Fulham in terms of every position from which we take shots.  The difference is not enormous but it is there throughout the game.

Finally, what sort of difference does the referee make?

I know of course that there are many people who feel that our regular review of referee behaviour is irrelevant and it is simply up to the club to deal with the referee, as much as with the opposition.

But I thought it would be interesting to see if we could spot any differences between different referees.

And indeed we can see that Darren England gave 50% more fouls against Arsenal than Craig Pawson, largely because he was giving fouls for issues other than tackles.  Quite what they were we don’t know, but he certainly found them.

 

 

They too have suffered from variable referees, Madley giving half the number of fouls as Brooks.  And an astonishing range of fouls per tackle – Madley giving four times as many fouls per tackles as Bankes.   It just shows that games are determined to a fair degree by referees, not by the players.

But perhaps above all we will notice that Fulham pick up twice as many yellows as we do.

We shall see.

 

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