By Bulldog Drummond
With this match being a League Cup affair it is possible that either or both sides will put out some reserve or junior players for the event, but I feel it is still worth looking at he tackles, fouls and yellow cards statistics, as this will probably be indicative of how each club approaches the game, and how the referee sees each club. Each has played 13 games in the League so far.
|Arsenal||15.1 pg||10.2 pg||1.62 pg|
|Brighton||17.5 pg||10.8 pg||1.31 pg|
So immediately we can see what is going on. Brighton are putting in 16% more tackles than Arsenal but only getting called for 6% more fouls, and are actually getting 19% fewer yellow cards than Arsenal.
16% more tackles, 19% fewer yellow cards. It’s a good trick if you can pull it off and I imagine a lot of clubs will be watching to see quite how they manage that.
|Club||Tackles per foul||Tackles per yellow||Fouls per yellow|
Immediately we can see the staggering advantage Brighton and Hove Albion have on approaching this game. They can commit 9.46% more tackles before being called out for a foul. They can commit 43.35% more tackles before getting a yellow card than Arsenal. And they can commit 30.79% more fouls than Arsenal before getting a yellow card.
These differences give Brighton and Hove a major advantage over Arsenal and show why Arteta is constantly working on reducing the number of tackles Arsenal make – as he has done since joining the club.
And if you don’t like all the statistics or believe that anything can be proven with statistics, here’s the basic fact. Brighton commit more tackles and get called up for more fouls than Arsenal but despite this get a lot fewer yellow cards.
Here is the abbreviated yellow card chart as of today
|17.||Brighton and Hove Albion||17|
|18.||West Ham United||16|
The referee is Jarred Gillett and here are his details…
|Referee||Games||Fouls pg||Fouls/Tackles||Yel pg|
Gillett calls on average 17.17 fouls per game. The median point is 20.67. He gives 0.58 fouls per tackle which puts him in the bottom fifth on this measure. And he gives out 3.83 yellow cards per game. Data from Whoscored. He has not awarded a single penalty all season thus far.
So if he hands it out true to form Arsenal are going to get more fouls given against them, overall and per tackle, and more yellow cards than Brighton. But also it looks as if he will be letting go some fouls that most other referees will give. It does not spell good news for Arsenal.
We have already compared the two clubs in terms of Arsenal at home and Brighton away, but if we compare them…
|6||Brighton and Hove Albion||13||6||3||4||22||17||5||21|
…we can see the big difference is in goals scored and conceded leading to Arsenal having a +15 better goal difference.
Indeed we can celebrate the fact that Arsenal have the most wins in the league this season, the fewest defeats, the fewest draws, the best defence, and are only second best in terms of goals scored.
So despite the referee we should have hope of a victory.
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