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The Untold ref weekly review

By Walter Broeckx, the Untold ref

So here we are after 2 weeks in the EPL this season. A short roundup of the state of affair in the wonderful world of the refs.

We have been able to cover 9 games in the EPL so far. It should have been 10 but because of the fact that Tottenham – Everton was postponed we still have to keep that game for later. So a big thanks to our ref reviewers so far and let us hope we can carry on like we are doing.

Of course after only doing 9 games you cannot draw definite conclusions and say: this is how it is. But we can try to look at possible trends we can see in the games.

Let us start with a table of the refs so far

Ref Important Overall Weight Average Game
Walton 50,00 55,00 63,16 56,05 Newcastle – Arsenal
Atkinson 66,67 82,14 74,36 74,39 Arsenal – Liverpool
Dean 77,78 80,00 83,72 80,50 City-Swansea
Halsey 57,14 65,00 64,56 62,23 Stoke-Chelsea
Dowd 95,00 89,13 86,79 90,31 Liverpool-Sunderland
Jones 85,71 79,59 82,26 82,52 WBA – Utd
Probert 70,00 71,11 73,21 71,44 Man U – Tottenham
Mason 68,42 72,00 73,13 71,18 Chelsea – WBA
Jones 66,67 78,69 74,70 73,35 Bolton – Man City
Average 70,82 74,74 75,10 73,55

Most refs have taken a good start of the season. As you can see the average score is above the magical 70% mark. So a big hurray for the refs.

However what I find a bit worrying is the fact that the lowest average score is made in the department where there is little margin for error. Because the important decisions are well….. the most important ones to make. And it should be those that should be correct.

And as you can see the average is only 70,82%. So if the refs have to make 10 important decisions, they will have 3 of them wrong. I must say this is not a number that makes me happy. Give the boys some assistance please. They obviously need some.

Are there other things to report yet? Well I was planning on keeping records of the wrong calls. The calls that were not made when they had to be made. The calls or non calls that can show some kind of bias. And yet again this is only after 2 weeks and so it is not possible to draw conclusions at this stage of the league.

Now if you take a look at this table I would ask you to have a look at Chelsea and City to start with. And then you can see that Chelsea away got more calls against them and at home got only 20 % of the calls against them. And also City got in their home game only 20% of the calls going against them. But at Bolton they got over 80% of the calls going against them. I think those numbers are too high but this could be down to the “home advantage” in the calls from the refs.

Wrong calls against teams per week in %
Week Arsenal Man U Chelsea Man City Liverpool Tottenham
1 84,21 20 57,14 20 25
2 66,67 38,46 20 84,62 33,33 61,54

And then you have the exceptions. In those two games Arsenal has  always been hit hard by wrong calls. It doesn’t matter if we are at home or not. We get the majority of the wrong calls given against us.

And you also have winners. And look. United can go away from home and get very few wrong calls going against them. And another team that gets few wrong calls going against them is Liverpool. Now it could be that this is a coincidence because their away game was at Arsenal and so they just benefited from that. But it will be interesting to see how this table develops during the season.

Oh and just as we have covered WBA twice in those opening weeks I can also give you a bit of their wrong score table. And it is very easy because both in their game against United as against Chelsea they were on the wrong end of the wrong calls. In both games they got 80% of the calls going against them. Well a little team against the big boys….

We also will keep the records of those smaller teams as the season goes further. So we could see if there is just a big/small team bias or if there are other things at work in the ref his mind.

So much more to look forward to I guess….

4 comments to The Untold ref weekly review

  • Diaminedave

    Hi Walter (and the rest of you doing this)
    This project is really beggining to take some serious shape and is getting stats that could be thoroughly analysed.
    congrats lads.
    all the best and lets see how the powers that be respond to whatever comes out of this.
    I dont know if you saw the Gaurdian had a map of where referees come from – pre dominantly midlands and north west to north.
    Will those ‘home’ biases be shown by the data? 🙂

  • Kentetsu

    A suggestion for the table with the wrong call against: add (H) or (A) behind the percentages to quickly see whether the game was played home or away. For now, it's still in possible to remember that for example ManU played away in week 1 and at home in week 2, but after 10 weeks, let alone 38 I will not even remember for Arsenal. The table should still be easy to read just for the numbers itself.

  • walter

    kentetsu
    I had been thinking about that but the problem is that then after a while I cannot make an average of wrong calls.

    But I could include the H or A in the table I copy in the article. You see there is a solution for every problem. 😉 Will try to think about this when I go further in the season.
    Thanks for pointing at this.

  • Laundryender

    Great stuff Walter

    I really believe we are having an impact, the Guardian map being just another step in a very long journey to reclaim our game.

    UA is playing a small but surely significant part in documenting the facts and recording the data.