A guide to who will finish where this season across Europe

by Andrew Crawshaw

I started today by updating my database of Arsenal players and adding in the current estimated player values from Transfermarkt.com.  I then remembered Tony’s predictions regarding the winners of various leagues across Europe (which I think he has got right) and thought I would provide the logic behind his predictions.  The transfer values of players isn’t of course a totally reliable predictor of how things will turn out but, by and large, it isn’t too far out.

Here are the aggregated player values for the likely leading clubs in various leagues across Europe with an added column showing the percentage of the total league value  the club figure represents.

France Ligue 1 – Total league player value £2.47b

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	PSG	749.07	30.3
2	Olympic Lyonais	317.07	12.8
3	Monaco	257.94	10.4
4	Marseille	226.17	9.2
5	OGC Nice	114.84	4.6
6	Stade Rennais	103.28	4.2

This is a completely one-sided league.  PSG have over 30% of the league value and it will be a miracle if they fail to win the league.  Second, third and fourth should go to Olympic, Monaco and Marseille but not necessarily in that order.

Germany Bundesliga – Total league player value £3.25b

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	Bayern Munich	791.69	24.4
2	Bayern Leverkusen	325.69	10.0
3	Borussia Dortmund	322.43	9.9
4	RB Leipzig	269.78	8.3
5	FC Shalke 04	221.13	6.8
6	TSG Hoffenheim	181.89	5.6

Another one team league – Bayern Munich with virtually one quarter of the total player value, more than twice that of their nearest rivals.  Not much to chose between Leverkusen, Dortmund and Leipzig for positions two to four and It wouldn’t be a total surprise for Shalke or Hoffenheim to get into the minor placings.  For first place it will be Bayern again – not worth opening a book on.

Italy Serie A – Total league player value £3.93b

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	Juventus	723.78	18.4
2	Inter Milan	485.78	12.4
3	Napoli	449.98	11.4
4	AC Milan	414.45	10.5
5	AS Roma	341.28	8.7
6	Lazio	310.73	7.9
7	Fiorentina	189.27	4.8

Not quite as one sided as some of the other leagues but Juve must be a red-hot favourite, nearly a fifth of the total player value and a squad worth 50% more than any one else.  Second, third and fourth between Inter, Napoli and AC Milan.

Portugal Liga NOS – Total League Player Value £827.71m (Less than the top two clubs in the EPL)

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	Benfica	210.38	25.4
2	FC Porto	207.79	25.1
3	Sporting CP	143.89	17.4
4	Braga	67.01	8.1

This should be a two-horse race between Benfica and Porto with Sporting CP in third place.

Scotland – Premiership – Total Player Value £131.04m (less than every club in the PL with the exception of Bournemouth, Wolves, Huddersfield and Cardiff!)

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	Celtic	50.63	38.0
2	Rangers	24.53	18.4
3	Heart of Midlothian	10.6	7.9
4	Aberdeen	7.83	5.9
5	Hibernian	7.67	5.7

This is the biggest shoo-in of all of the European Leagues.  Celtic will undoubtably win by a distance, Rangers should come second, Herts third although pushed by Aberdeen and Hibernian.

England Premier League – Total Player Value £7.06b (virtually the same as Germany and Italy combined)

Likely Position	Team	Squad Value £m	% of League value
1	Manchester City	957.6	13.6
2	Chelsea	863.1	12.2
3	Liverpool	816.75	11.6
4	Manchester United	762.3	10.8
5	Tottenham Hotspur	751.05	10.6
6	Arsenal	522.9	7.4
7	Everton	322.65	4.6

This is perhaps the most difficult league to accurately predict.  Man City have a squad that is worth nearly £100m more than Chelsea and £400m more than Arsenal who have the Sixth highest squad value. 

Much of this extra depth comes from the strength in depth which is what is likely to result in a league win.  I will therefore say that City are likely to win the league, second to fifth are likely to be Chelsea, Liverpool, United and Tottenham.  On paper Arsenal are likely to remain in sixth, but I have a feeling that we are likely to out-perform our squad value and finish in the top four.  Should this happen it will be a significant achievement as that would mean us doing better than teams with 50% or more squad value – a tall order.  Time alone will tell.

COYG

 

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