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By Bulldog Drummond
According to Opta the chances of Arsenal winning the league are 51.3%. The chances of them coming second are 42.2%. For third place it is 8.2% and fourth is 0.3%
As for Manchester City they have a 48.4% chance of winning the title, 45.2% chance of coming second, 8% chance of coming third and 0.3% chance of coming fourth. No odds are given on the media’s near-universal pre-season prediction by the alleged super-computers of Arsenal coming fifth or sixth.
The only other club listed by Opta at the moment in terms of winning the title is Manchester United who start at 2.2% chance of winning the title. Their range of odds is bigger than Manchester City and Arsenal going
- 1st = 2.2%
- 2nd = 12.2%
- 3rd = 71.3%
- 4th = 10.2%
- 5th = 3.0%
- 6th = 0.9%
- 7th = 0.2%
Opta is of course all about giving statistical values to events on the pitch. Untold’s approach is one that is based on the theory that everything works in wave form. As an example of that we have often cited the fact that Arsenal tend not to lose the odd match amidst a run of wins, but rather the losses come in a sequence. Thus the ability to cut that sequence short by immediately rebuilding the belief of the team that they can win, breaks the wave. This is achieved by having readily available players to replace an injured man, and is, in our view far more important than expected goals etc.
Hence our start of the season projection of Arsenal coming third, based not on expected goals, but the fact that it was evident that the various runs of two and three defeats in a row followed by long spells of no defeats, could be overcome. The “supercomputers” invented by the media predicted fifth or sixth. I’m looking forward to some end of season crowing at Untold. It may be childish but we have taken so much abuse from elsewhere following our continuous support for Arteta from the moment he introduced the “stock tackling” policy we feel like giving a bit back.
The BBC in its coverage of the game tell us that Thomas Partey could start his first game for three weeks. Eddie Nketiah, was said to be limping towards the end of the Everton game so may miss out although if he plays it will be his 100th league appearance in his career. The general view of the article is “Bournemouth always show plenty of fight and I don’t think this will be a walkover… Mikel Arteta’s side will slip up again before the end of the season, there’s no doubt about that… but not on Saturday.” The prediction is 3-0.
So, as everyone is now joining in saying, 60 points after 25 games is just one fewer than in the unbeaten season. But (they add) 60 points does not guarantee the title, as Arsenal found in 2007/8.
And here’s one from the BBC I missed… Since the notorious 2-0 defeat at the start of last season which led to calls for Arteta to leave, Arsenal have won the remaining eight games against promoted teams. Their stats people are really alive to this stuff – it is a shame the media commentators can’t learn how to see a blip and not interpret it as the end of the world. Them and their imaginary friends (the alleged but non-existent supercomputers).
|13 Aug 2021||Brentford v Arsenal||L||2-0||Premier League|
|11 Sep 2021||Arsenal v Norwich City||W||1-0||Premier League|
|7 Nov 2021||Arsenal v Watford||W||1-0||Premier League|
|26 Dec 2021||Norwich City v Arsenal||W||0-5||Premier League|
|19 Feb 2022||Arsenal v Brentford||W||2-1||Premier League|
|6 Mar 2022||Watford v Arsenal||W||2-3||Premier League|
|20 Aug 2022||AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal||W||0-3||Premier League|
|27 Aug 2022||Arsenal v Fulham||W||2-1||Premier League|
|30 Oct 2022||Arsenal v Nottingham Forest||W||5-0||Premier League|
As for the team The Standard offer up...
- White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko;
- Odegaard, Partey, Xhaka;
- Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko;
Partey, Vieira, Odegaard;
Saka, Trossard, Martinelli
Sports Mole however bring back Tierney
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tierney;
Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli;
Radio Times gives the same, so as ever, once we hit several all saying the same thing, we stop.
So that’s it. Arsenal v Bournemouth: a solid Arsenal win is predicted. And one good reason for that is that the last time Bournemouth won consecutive away games was in October 2018 beating Watford and Fulham. On 18 February (their last away game) they beat Wolverhampton 0-1 – a win that came after seven defeats and two draws in league and cup games.
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