Over the past seven seasons, Manchester City have gained between 86 and 100 points each season in winning the league. They have scored between 83 and 106 goals each season in so doing and have conceded between 26 and 35 goals each season.
Leaving aside the issues concerning their finances, these are incredible achievements, and not just achieved through having the money. Obviously, the money played a dominant part, but they also needed a manager who could handle the money and make a success of the club as a result of having as much as needed to bring in the players he deemed suitable.
So until the league as a whole take action against Manchester City for their financial activities and decide what to do about the fact that Manchester City are now attempting to sue the Premier League out of existence, the achievements of Manchester City in recent years are the targets Arsenal have to aim for.
As a result of this thinking it occurred to me that it might be interesting to see how close Arsenal have been in the last two seasons in meeting these targets as set by Manchester City.
In terms of points Arsenal got 84 and 89 points in the last two seasons. 84 has not been enough over the last seven seasons to win the title but 89 would have been enough once. But only once.
So although it felt as if Arsenal were very close last season, in fact to repeat the point, only once in the last seven seasons would that points total have won the club the league. In fact even 90 points is not a high enough total to guarantee winning the title, as four times Manchester City have gained in excess of this. 94 points would hava won it on all but two occasions, so that seems a reasonable target.
94 points it is – that is what the club has to aim, for. That is five points more than last season. Two defeats turned into wins in fact. So a total of 30 wins, four draws and four defeats. That’s a pretty tall order, but we can probably say in the present climate that once any team has suffered five defeats, there is no chance of them winning the league.
In fact after just 16 games last season only five out of the 20 Premier League clubs could still make those numbers and for most of those it would now mean winning virtually ever game. In short we are pretty much at the point in the Premier League where it is all over for most teams before the season begins.
What about goals?
With one exception Manchester City scored 94 goals or more in winning the title each time – curiously the same number of goals as points although they haven’t actually ever scored 94 goals and got 94 points in the same season.
Arsenal got 91 goals last season, so are very close to the total number of goals needed, which is why I think all the talk about bringing in a new centre-forward might be a bit off-target (as it were).
As for defence Arsenal have conceded 43 and 29 goals in the past two seasons, and in fact that last total was five fewer than Manchester City. Although, Manchester City have twice conceded fewer goals having let in 23 and 26 in their two best defensive seasons.
Put all this together Arsenal’s achievement this coming season seems to need to be 94 points, 94 goals scored and let’s say 26 goals conceded.
So the next question is, have Arsenal ever got anywhere near that?
The best total Arsenal have gained is 90 points, 91 goals and 26 conceded.
Of those figures, the best goals scored total was last season, the best points gained and fewest goals conceded were in the unbeaten season.
So effectively to beat Manchester City, Arsenal have to keep the attack at the current level and improve the defence slightly. Whereas almost all the articles I have seen have talked about improving the attack.
But given that no action has yet been taken against Manchester City for its 115 alleged transgressions the club is still free to do pretty much anything it wants in the transfer market. So it is quite possible that they will continue to buy this summer, if nothing else than just to stop Arsenal getting those players, and to stick two fingers up at the rest of the league.
After all, if they can disobey the financial rules why not the 25 player rule as well?.
- What happens if Man City wins the fight against the League?
- Could Arsenal’s defence be even more solid this season?
By Tony Attwood
Your last comment is right on point, and City are not smart enough. They ought to have attacked the 25 player rule as well, stating that becuase they win all, they play more games thus need a larger squad. The PL having this rule means they are being restricted in their freedom to run a successful business, etc etc etc
Surprising they did not go after that rule as well.