Against Brentford, Arenal must beat the opposition and overcome the referee.

 

 

• Arsenal and Brentford – is the opposition only good against certain clubs?
• The numbers that prove there is something very very fishy with PL refereeing (Peter Bankes referee’s today match)

by Tony Attwood

As we have seen already, at first sight this looks like being an easy win for Arsenal with the league table showing Arsenal ahead on goals scored, having conceded only half the goals Brentford have and Arsenal having 50% more points thus far that Brentford.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
3	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	35	16	19	36
12	Brentford	18	7	3	8	32	32	0	24

 

But it is when we bring the home and away form into focus we see that Brentford are equal with Liverpool at the top of the home form table while Arsenal are fourth in the away form table.  In fact all but two of Brentford’s points have been gained at home!

Now if you are a long-term reader you might remember our work on why home wins are more common than away wins.   We reported many studies that showed that when the crowds were removed during the pandemic, the difference was removed.  Further analysis showed that some referees are particularly influenced by crowd noise – the experiments being carried out with referees watching matches on screens, some with the referees being able to hear the soundtrack of the crowd noise some not.  On each occasion of a possible foul or other infringement the video stopped and the referee had to say what his decision was.  There was a remarkable bias by referees toward the home side, among the referees that had the sound track of the crowd noise played along with the video.

Earlier this season the Premier League’s own website took up the case  history, admitting that “home clubs have earned an average of 1.63 points per match, compared with 1.1 points for away teams.”

They then admitted that, “The presence of a large number of vocal home supporters is perhaps the largest contributor, boosting their team’s confidence on the pitch.”  Which was the first ever admission by a league that referees can be affected by the crowd.

They then however justified this by saying suggesting that support can boost player confidence, but this assertion on its own ignores all the research which showed the way refereeing decisions change when there is no crowd.

Also, the report makes no mention of the enormous variability between referees in terms of the results they see.  This table shows the differences between referees just for this season so far.

Referee	gAMES	Home wIN	Away WIN	DRAW
Darren Bond	8	87.5%	0.0%	12.5%
Anthony Taylor	17	17.6%	64.7%	17.6%
Chris Kavanagh	13	7.7%	23.1%	69.2%

 

Bond has seen 87.5% of his games as home wins while Kavanagh sees just 7.7% as home victories.   Bond has not overseen a single away win, while almost two-thirds of Taylor’s games are away wins.   Draws are the rarest form of result but Kavanagh has still since 69.2% of his games as draws.

How can these variations be explained?

The Premier League report takes the simple view that, “The presence of a large number of vocal home supporters is perhaps the largest contributor, boosting their team’s confidence on the pitch,” but we must note the word “perhaps”.  They refuse to quote any of the evidence – of which there is plenty.  Of course home players will have a sense of familiarity, any issue with the sun shining into their eyes, the length of the grass, etc.  But the evidence shows it is crowd noise that affects referees more than any other factor.

However there is also the fact that away supporters only get 3,000 tickets in larger stadia, and 10% of the stadium where the capacity is lower.  At Griffin Park with its  capacity of just 12,763, there will be at most, 1276 Arsenal fans in the ground.  They will all make a noise, but will seem a tiny group to the players.

It can also be argued that the ground itself can be more or less intimidating for players, citing Luton in the Premier League and noting the idea that “the ground’s compact dimensions helped create an intimidating atmosphere, which could make the pitch seem even smaller for opposition players.”

Which sounds viable, except Luton only won four of their premier league home games in their 2023/24 season – which was two more games at home than away and they scored just four more goals at home than away across the whole season.  So not that much of a difference.

But still we rarely see such a home/away difference as big as Brentford’s, although Fulham in 2005/6 got 1.79 more points per game at home than away.

However in every season clubs have got more points at home than away – except one.  For due to Covid restrictions, the 2020/21 campaign took place almost entirely without fans.  And this was the only season in the Premier League’s history in which points won by away teams exceeded the points won by home teams.  

And it is interesting that three of the four lowest differences between total home points per match and away points per match in the Premier League have come in the last four years.  

These figures suggest that the influence on the venue is declining, which could be because referees have been educated in terms of the way supporters influence the referee’s behaviour on the pitch.

Is Brentford’s tiny stadium a benefit to them?  Probably yes when we have, as we do on this occasion, a home-biased referee who has seen 80% of his matches end as home wins.   As a result Arenal are going to have to beat the opposition and overcome the referee.