Where now for Arsenal: the problem won’t go away and Arsenal need to win despite it

 

 

• PGMOL is about to go bust. And whose fault is that?

by Tony Attwood

So now we know that Arsenal will not be winning anything this season – the fifth year running this has happened.  This of course is not the first time we have had a lean spell in terms of trophies – between 2005/6 and 2012/13 Arsenal went eight seasons without a trophy.   

And from 1954/5 until 1970/71 Arsenal went 16 years without a trophy.  Then they won the double.   Which, when we note where Arsenal have been finishing in the league of late, should be a positive thought.

So lean spells, although unwelcome, are not unknown in the club and can lead to better times.  But this lean spell has been a little different from others.  Having come second two years running there were hopes that this time the club could just take that extra step.   Unfortunately, the club’s excellent record in terms of not having many injuries over the two previous seasons suddenly came to an end, and that was a prime reason for hope not being fulfilled.

But we might recall that for three seasons running Arsenal came second between 1999 and 2001 and in the fourth season won the league – so it can be done.   And what is interesting is that in those three runners-up years the club got 73, 73 and 70 points consecutively.  At the moment with three games to play Arsenal are on 67.

However, in the last two seasons Arsenal got 84 and 89 points in coming second – points totals that were not enough in any year since 2016 except in 2020/21.

So to win the league next season Arsenal not only need to return to the heights of the two previous campaigns but also go better still – and this in an era when one or two clubs are tending to pull away at the top.

Thinking of such matters, and trying to distract myself after the sadness of last night I thought it might be interesting to go back to a set of predictions made.  Of course many publications remove their pre-season predictions from their websites long before the season ends, but the BBC are rather good about this and leave their predictions standing.   This is how their predictions looked on Thursday, 15 August, with more than two weeks to go until the transfer window shut.  30 people made their choices for the top four teams by the end of the season.

Nine teams featured in the forecasted top fours, but only Manchester City and Arsenal featured in all 30. 

The predicted rankings using all 30 BBC predictions were as below, with the current position in the league added by us at the end in brackets.

What this shows is how far out from reality even people who (unlike me) are paid for writing about football can be when it comes to predictions.  Tottenham and ManU were ranked as the fourth and fitth strongest teams ahead of the start of the season.

The trouble is of course a lot of predictions are based on emotions, as are the calls for a manager to be removed after a bad game or a bad result.   And of course that is what can happen now having been beaten by PSG,   Especially after the display of the first 25 minutes or so last night.  It did look (to me at least) as if Arsenal could do it.

But one of the most encouraging aspects, beyond the fact that Arsenal actually got to the the semi-finals of the Champions League for the first time in 16 years, was that Arsenal looked like they could go and win the game.    OK “looking like” isn’t “winning” but it is still much better than looking hopeless, or not making it to the semi-final at all. 

This was the way to play, and it suggested that what Arsenal need are a couple more good back-up players who can take over in the same way when the first-choice players are injured or lose form.   Although as I have said before, players that good are not going to be happy sitting around as second-choice operatives.  They will want to be playing, and they will know that if Arsenal don’t give them the chance someone else will.  It’s a hard one to manage.

Can we do better next season?  Yes of course – providing that the squad is not sliced to bits once again by injuries, or Arteta doesn’t leave because of the whinging and whining of the media and some supporters.   But there is another worry, for the rest of the league will know how Arsenal were beaten, and the level of tackling will be more severe next season.  This leaves Arsenal at the mercy of PGMOL, which as we have seen this season from the analysis of penalties Arsenal win and penalties Arsenal give away, is not a good place to be.   Arsenal, in short, are not treated as other clubs, and they need to win despite this.