Predictions can be made emotionally. But adding in a few facts can help as well.

By Tony Attwood

In recent weeks I’ve written a lot about Arsenal’s situation when it comes to next season, and we’ve touched on a whole range of issues that will affect just how well the club will do in 2019/20.

Issues such as the reality of there being a limit of £45m on transfer expenditure (which we have now shown was a PR project set up by one of the Arsenal supporters’ groups), on the alleged incompetence of the Arsenal management team, on the impact of Edu, on the fact of how far away we were from the top four last season, and the importance of the home/away differential last time around.

My thinking is that some of these issues are fantasies cooked up by newspapers and blogs continuing the tradition of anti-Arsenal coverage in the media, while others have been addressed by the club itself.  On top of that there is the issue of how well our rivals in the top six are coping with their own issues this summer.

The point is that if Arsenal, as a club, have got the underlying issues sorted out then there is every chance of a better season this time around than last time.  If any of our rivals have not got their issues sorted out then even if we don’t improve, we should end up above them.

Now this is not just an issue for those of us who want Arsenal to do well in the league, but also those who fancy the occasional flutter.   Because if you want to use a betting app you really have a simple choice: you either bet using emotion or you bet using logic and information.  And basically, the second option brings with it a much higher chance of success.

Incidentally if you want apps for betting on football then they are here – and what I want to try and do here is point out exactly how you can predict just how well Arsenal are going to do next season.

It goes like this:

First, you have to decide if any team outside of last season’s top six are going to bridge the gap and get into the top six.   You may recall our analysis of the changes in position in the top six within the PL between one season and the next a few weeks ago – it is much smaller than might be assumed. 

You can see last season’s table here, and indeed see how Arsenal performed in other seasons as well.

To reach the top six Wolverhampton Wanderers will probably have to get nine points more than this last season.  Everton need 12 points, Leicester and West Ham 14 points.   If you think that is likely, then fair enough, that’s how you place your bets.

On the other hand, you might go for more of the same. The Guardian, for example, in their preview have Arsenal slipping to sixth this coming season.

But of course even a mass improvement by one of the wannabe clubs doesn’t necessarily affect Arsenal.   Manchester City and Liverpool look out of reach at the moment, not least because they are willing to spend whatever it takes to stay ahead of the pack, and the League is not willing to do anything much to curtail their spending, no matter what its source,

However Chelsea have an absentee owner who is totally absent, the plans for the new stadium are not so much mothballed as crumbling to dust, and a one year ban on transfers. 

Tottenham are now in their new stadium, and for almost every club that has in the past meant a decline in fortunes, while Manchester United had the most awful end to the season, and there is no certainty they can get back to the earlier form, which now looks mostly like a celebration of the leaving of Mourinho rather than anything else.

Again how you evaluate these factors will influence your thinking on how well Arsenal will do. 

And then there is Arsenal’s own performance.  If you believe Mustafi and Xhaka are among the worst players in the league but the manager is too stupid to see what you see, then you’ll expect a decline in Arsenal.  If on the other hand you believe the statistics concerning last season’s performances, you’ll see a different couple of players.

Against this there are the new signings and the return of Holding and Bellerin.  If you see these players as central to Arsenal then their return could be just what it takes to get Arsenal up the league.

Then we have that away form conundrum – until a couple of years ago we had as solid an away form as home form.  Then suddenly it crashed and away from home we were hopeless. Last season a bit better. If you think this is a tactical matter which has now been fixed, then there’s no doubt, Arsenal will be back in the top four come the end of the 2019/20.

And finally, the youngsters.  They can flatter to deceive but if you think that Joe Willock and young Eddie are the real thing, then again you’ll be backing Arsenal to a top four finish. The choice of course is yours.

11 Replies to “Predictions can be made emotionally. But adding in a few facts can help as well.”

  1. I won’t be having a flutter on Arsenal, not because I don’t believe in our club but because betting always was, is and always will be a mugs game. The next time I see a bookie on a bike with the arse worn out of his trousers I may reconsider but probably not.

  2. RayB

    I’ve had a bet every week of my life for over 40 years and do not consider myself to be a mug thank you very much.

    I’m having a little flutter at Glorious Goodwood today in fact.

    Millions of people, like me, enjoy a bet.

    Why would you label everyone who has a bet a ‘mug’ just because you don’t do it ?

    Personally I think anyone who stands on the bank of a river in the freezing cold trying to tempt an innocent fish onto his hook is a mug, or spends hours spoiling a good walk bashing a little white ball around is a mug.

    Both of those hobbies cost my friends far far more than does my gambling.

    Many things in life if done to excess, such as drinking alcohol (I do that), eating junk food (I do that), can do you a lot of harm. Even drinking too much water can kill you.

    But if you enjoy it and do it in moderation I cant see the problem.

  3. Nitram,
    OK some people can have the occasional bet and some can’t and bring misery to themselves and their families, same as drink as you say.

    I get no pleasure at all from betting, absolutely none, for me it’s a total waste of money. To those who enjoy a gamble and can keep their betting under control I say good luck but remember you will find a lot more cleaned out punters than you will bookmakers.

    BTW if you put money on Arsenal winning something I hope you win a fortune.

  4. Tony

    While I may be emotionally invested in the fortunes of AFC I tend to favour facts over emotion in my analysis of where the club may finish in the table. As you and others here at UA have pointed out, an improvement in away form would result in a top 4 finish. It doesn’t have to be a massive improvement, either. Just 2 more points from last season’s easy run in would have resulted in a 3rd place finish. Unfortunately, to the media and a lot of fans (not supporters) the glass is always half empty regarding Arsenal. The home form has been very good the last few seasons and nothing indicates that would change. The clubs behind don’t seem poised to overtake the Arsenal. And it’s not a stretch to think Chelsea and Spurs will not improve over last season. The former having lost Hazard and the latter paying for a new bedpan, I mean stadium, lol. Pre-season, Chambers started ahead of Mustafi, Holding and Bellerin will be back and the attack will be frightening. A centre back may yet be added before the window closes. If I were wagering I’d say AFC for top 4 is a fair bet.

  5. Mmm I sympethise with Ray B. I rate Tony very high and untold arsenal with it. But is it possible to file this article under sponsored content or something? I dont like the direct link to betting apps, it feels a bit fuzzy where as the ‘normal’ hight quality content feels 100% clear independent.
    I understand that you wanna earn something out of your hard work so I dont really complain, but eh I hope you understand what I m trying to say here. I appreciate everything you do here so I trust your judgement on this one too

  6. RayB

    “I get no pleasure at all from betting, absolutely none, for me it’s a total waste of money.”

    But I do get a lot of pleasure from it and I don’t consider it at all a waste of money. Why does that make me a mug?

    Because “I get no pleasure at all from fishing, absolutely none, for me it’s a total waste of money”, does that make everyone that does a mug. That’s my point.

    Just because some people cannot control their drinking does that make everyone that drinks a mug?

    Just because some people cannot control their on line shopping does that make everyone that shops on line a mug?


    The first Royal Meeting took place at Ascot in 1768

    Britain’s most popular race meeting, welcoming 300,000 racegoers across five days

    70,000 racegoers attend Thursday’s Gold Cup Day

    The most valuable race meeting in Britain with £7.3m in prize money

    Features 8 Group One races and 19 Group races in total

    Viewed in over 200 countries around the globe


    Are we all just MUGS ?

    And there I was thinking it was one of the most spectacularly exciting events of the year. Silly me.

  7. rondejonge

    I understand where you are comming from, but these sorts of articles are no more irritating than the adds that now appear on the site.

    The point is Untold needs to generate money to survive and if I recall correctly only recently Tony was saying how he tries to keep the amount of adds to a minimum, for which I am grateful, and this kind of more subtle advertising may be one of the ways he achieves that.

    Usually it’s pretty obvious what kind of article it is from the off, so……..stop reading it. It’s as simple as that.

    I’m certainly in favour of them if they help prevent the site from being overrun with ‘pop up’ adds etc.

    And of course there’s always 2 other alternatives:

    1) Run Untold on donations as per Wikipedia.

    2) Untold shuts down.

    As far as I’m concerned whatever Tony needs to do to keep Untold going is okay by me.

    Keep up the good work Tony.

  8. Nitram

    Thanks for taking the time for answering
    in a nuanced way.

    maybe put Untold also on Patreon could also ad up in the
    making money mix? Just a thought

    And you re right that its quite obvious what kinda article it is so there s that
    I think we both agree that the value of untolds existence
    deserves leeway in commercial survival tactics

    As I mentioned in my post, I trust Tony to make
    the right decisions, so its okay for me as well

  9. And he! Arsenal is so underrated by media and plundits, why not take a bet for Arsenal ‘against all ods’ and make some money of the hubris and contempt of the so called ‘experts… (insert winking emoticon)

  10. rondejonge

    I usually only bet on the horses, and even then only when they’re on terrestrial tv but on the back of what you said I thought I’d have a look at the price.

    My bookie was offering 50 to f***ing 1.

    The perennial bottlers Spurs are just 16/1 despite finishing just one point ahead of us.

    Now as a small punter that’s what you’re looking for. A ridiculous price.

    Now that isn’t to say I think Arsenal will win it, they may they may not, but what I do know is that 50/1 is miles too big.

    Our realistic chance of the title should be similar to Spurs, somewhere between 16’s and 20’s.

    50/1 is a joke.

    By coincidence I won a few quid on Dierdre at Goodwood today so decided to splash out a fiver ew.

    If it comes in my friend there may will be a cheque in the post !!

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