By Bulldog Drumond
There have been 30 Premier League games so far this season. But only 10 of them have been home wins. That is, rather obviously, 33% of matches that have ended in home wins. Last season it was 48%.
And what makes this quite interesting is that this is a sudden change after years of statistical stability.
Last season there were 181 home wins in 380 games. The season before it was 173. (46%). The season before that (which is to say 2016/17) it was 187 (49%). So last season was not an aberration – it was a fairly typical season. This season is the oddball.
In short what we have seen so far this season has been the absolute turn around in terms of the percentage of home wins in Premier League games.
Of course these figures could correct themselves over time, with a real flurry of home wins coming all in a rush to even up the numbers… But maybe we are seeing something else – maybe clubs are starting to realise how to play against teams away from their own patch. Maybe it really is a tactical change. If so, you are reading about it here first.
We’ve known for years of course that home wins are easier to predict than away wins simply because there are so many more home wins than away wins. Also it has long been established that draws are the hardest of all to predict – although curiously over time the 1-1 draw has been the most common score of all in the Football League over the years.
But no more, for somehow teams are slipping up at home. In fact although half of the teams in the Premier League have played two matches at home, only one such team (ie 10%) has won both games – Liverpool.
Likewise only one team has won both of its away games (Manchester City). So 10% again.
But surprisingly the number of draws (home or away) is also up. So far 11 teams have drawn one of their games, Leicester have drawn twice and Wolverhampton have drawn all three.
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So overall what we have thus far are 10 homes wins, 8 home draws, and 12 home defeats. Completely different from recent seasons, and I suspect different from almost all the seasons of the PL – although I’ve not had the time to analyse them all.
Of course this might change over time this year, but it shows why the plethora of super computers that have sprung up (everyone seems to have got one now from Talk Sport to the Daily Star) are making such a pigs ear of their predictions. For they are based primarily on the notion that what happened last season will happen again this season. It is, of course, a fairly standard approach for people who can’t be arsed to do any proper research – as is the use of the term super computer. Real super computers aren’t called super computers. They have names.
So by way of comparison last season 235 games out of 380 through the season ended in a home win. That is 62%. Compared to this season with 10 out of 30 being home wins – which is of course 33%.
Obviously I am just dealing with the Premier League here, and you might want to go further, or indeed have a flutter in which case you might want to have a look at https://www.mightytips.com/
If you do want to do a spot of gambling, then you have to decide – is this a start of season abberation, is it just affecting the Premier League only, and will it continue. But if you do consider this issue of home and away here is one other aspect that will help you: it seems virtually no one else is talking about this topic and instead they are jabbering on and on about the super computers predicting football as it was in the past – and as a result getting it totally wrong.
So if you get in quick you could be onto a good thing, although I am not guaranteeing anything – any more than I did when I got a few results right in advance of world cup matches last summer.
But here is the word of warning if you are looking at the issue of home and away. Just because it is happening in the Premier League that does not mean it is happening in other leagues, and just because it is happening now, it does not mean it is going to continue.
And my point overall is that if one wants to do any sort of predicting – for gambling or just to let everyone know what a smart person you are, you need to spot a trend early on before anyone else jumps in.
Plus there is one other advantage you have: the media rarely takes any notice of anything here, because most of the time we are attacking the media, PGMO, the FA, and the like, so I suspect it will be quite a while before anyone reprograms all these super computers – if they even exist.
But just in case you wondered, I’m still going for a home win for the Arsenal this weekend. Just like most of the media.