Arsenal v Brighton (and how we can get into the Conference)

By Bulldog Drummond

Recently we have not only been looking at the league table to compare the two clubs involved in a game but also their comparative results over a key number of matches.

Of course our favourite starting point for such a table is Christmas Day, but let’s be fair and include all the data before anyone complains.  So first off here is the comparison of the two clubs in the actual real-live league table as of today.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
9	Arsenal today	37	17	7	13	53	39	14	58
16	Brighton and Hove Albion today	37	9	14	14	40	44	-4	41

Then of course we must go back to Christmas Day wherein the table stood as

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
15	Arsenal on Xmas Day	14	4	2	8	12	18	-6	14
17	Brighton and Hove on Xmas Day	14	2	6	6	16	22	-6	12

This tells us a fair bit.  If the clubs had progressed in the same way after Christmas Day then the gap between them by now would be five points.  In fact it is 17 points.   So returning to our favourite table of the moment, the table for the games since Christmas Day we have….

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
9	Arsenal since Xmas Day	23	13	5	5	41	21	20	44
16	Brighton and Hove Albi since Xmas Day	23	7	8	8	24	22	2	29

Since Xmas Day we have stretched out lead over Brighton and Hove despite their own modest improvement.  We have been scoring twice as many as them, while conceding about the same, so that should indicate a 2-1 using  the average score, but it could be quite a few more.

To get a closer look at how the teams have been doing of late, we can turn to the last six games each has played

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	13	5	8	14
2	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	10	4	6	13
3	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	7	3	4	13
4	Leeds United	6	3	2	1	10	4	6	11
5	Tottenham Hots	6	3	1	2	12	8	4	10
6	Leicester City	6	3	1	2	11	9	2	10
7	Newcastle United	6	3	1	2	12	11	1	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	4	3	1	10
9	Manchester  City	6	3	0	3	12	11	1	9
10	Manchester United	6	2	2	2	10	9	1	8
11	Brighton & Hove	6	2	2	2	7	6	1	8

Interestingly Brighton are well up there challenging Manchester United and only one point behind Manchester City who of late have seem to have lost interest.  So again something like a 2-1 victory should be in order.

And indeed despite their lowly position Brighton have missed relegation by at least 10 points no matter what happens tomorrow – possibly by more.

There is of course the issue of us playing in the Andorran Conference League next season by coming seventh this year.  [Why Andorra? – Tony]  [Could be San Marino if you like – BD]

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	37	26	5	6	78	32	46	83
2	Manchester United	37	20	11	6	71	43	28	71
3	Chelsea	37	19	10	8	57	34	23	67
4	Liverpool	37	19	9	9	66	42	24	66
5	Leicester City	37	20	6	11	66	46	20	66
6	West Ham United	37	18	8	11	59	47	12	62
7	Tottenham Hotspur	37	17	8	12	64	43	21	59
8	Everton	37	17	8	12	47	43	4	59
9	Arsenal	37	17	7	13	53	39	14	58

As things stand the two Mancy clubs are in the champs league, with the remaining two places being between Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester.  And I wonder, are the fans of Chelsea and Liverpool preparing to spend the summer writing “Fourth is not a trophy” as some Black Scarf and AST followers did when we were managed by Mr Wenger?  Perhaps not.  Perhaps it is just an Arsenal thing.  (Incidentally I always pick those two supporters’ groups since both claim to be the biggest Arsenal supporters groups, so I think they ought to share the glory of their statements).

Then it is one of Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester who slip into the Europa along with one of West Ham, Tottenham Hots and Everton.   And then for the Andorran Conference it is one of Tottenham Hots, Everton and Arsenal.

I think our chances are very, very, modest, not because I don’t think we’ll beat Brighton and Hove, but rather because I suspect either the Hots or Everton will win.  And of course celebrate wildly.

But I really don’t think not being in Europe after 25 years is a bad thing.  Mr Arteta is coming under huge pressure from the likes of AST, journalists and bloggers, who can’t stand the fact that he has made incredible progress by adopting the approach that Mr Wenger used.  That approach of course being playing PGMO as well as the opposition, changing tactics, changing player positions, changing the playing styles of players not just between games but within a game.  It clearly fools (and rather sadly angers) some Arsenal fans, and certainly fools the opposition.

With PGMO and one or two of the clubs we face realising what we are up to, I think there could still be battles to come, and although playing the youngsters in the Conference gives them a chance to shine, the whole thing gives the media and bloggers a chance to snigger and sneer at every goal conceded by a less than completely experienced Arsenal man.

Besides, the Andorran Conference will be part of the season ticket, and played at 11pm on a monday (or something like that, details are not yet clarified) and given the journey I have to each match, yes it’s fun in the pub etc, but the getting home after midnight is a bit of a bore.

The four dangers that could stop Arsenal’s return to greatness

• Arsenal face four huge dangers as they stand again on the edge of greatness
• The four dangers that could stop Arsenal’s rise next season. 2: The journalists
• The four dangers that could stop Arsenal’s rise: Part 3; returning to the tackle
• The four dangers that could stop Arsenal’s rise back to the top: Part 4 – the rabble rousers