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Arsenal v Brighton (and how we can get into the Conference)

By Bulldog Drummond

Recently we have not only been looking at the league table to compare the two clubs involved in a game but also their comparative results over a key number of matches.

Of course our favourite starting point for such a table is Christmas Day, but let’s be fair and include all the data before anyone complains.  So first off here is the comparison of the two clubs in the actual real-live league table as of today.

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
9 Arsenal today 37 17 7 13 53 39 14 58
16 Brighton and Hove Albion today 37 9 14 14 40 44 -4 41

Then of course we must go back to Christmas Day wherein the table stood as

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Arsenal on Xmas Day 14 4 2 8 12 18 -6 14
17 Brighton and Hove on Xmas Day 14 2 6 6 16 22 -6 12

This tells us a fair bit.  If the clubs had progressed in the same way after Christmas Day then the gap between them by now would be five points.  In fact it is 17 points.   So returning to our favourite table of the moment, the table for the games since Christmas Day we have….

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
9 Arsenal since Xmas Day 23 13 5 5 41 21 20 44
16 Brighton and Hove Albi since Xmas Day 23 7 8 8 24 22 2 29

Since Xmas Day we have stretched out lead over Brighton and Hove despite their own modest improvement.  We have been scoring twice as many as them, while conceding about the same, so that should indicate a 2-1 using  the average score, but it could be quite a few more.

To get a closer look at how the teams have been doing of late, we can turn to the last six games each has played

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 6 4 2 0 13 5 8 14
2 Arsenal 6 4 1 1 10 4 6 13
3 Chelsea 6 4 1 1 7 3 4 13
4 Leeds United 6 3 2 1 10 4 6 11
5 Tottenham Hots 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
6 Leicester City 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Newcastle United 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
8 Everton 6 3 1 2 4 3 1 10
9 Manchester  City 6 3 0 3 12 11 1 9
10 Manchester United 6 2 2 2 10 9 1 8
11 Brighton & Hove 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8

Interestingly Brighton are well up there challenging Manchester United and only one point behind Manchester City who of late have seem to have lost interest.  So again something like a 2-1 victory should be in order.

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And indeed despite their lowly position Brighton have missed relegation by at least 10 points no matter what happens tomorrow – possibly by more.

There is of course the issue of us playing in the Andorran Conference League next season by coming seventh this year.  [Why Andorra? – Tony]  [Could be San Marino if you like – BD]

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 37 26 5 6 78 32 46 83
2 Manchester United 37 20 11 6 71 43 28 71
3 Chelsea 37 19 10 8 57 34 23 67
4 Liverpool 37 19 9 9 66 42 24 66
5 Leicester City 37 20 6 11 66 46 20 66
6 West Ham United 37 18 8 11 59 47 12 62
7 Tottenham Hotspur 37 17 8 12 64 43 21 59
8 Everton 37 17 8 12 47 43 4 59
9 Arsenal 37 17 7 13 53 39 14 58

As things stand the two Mancy clubs are in the champs league, with the remaining two places being between Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester.  And I wonder, are the fans of Chelsea and Liverpool preparing to spend the summer writing “Fourth is not a trophy” as some Black Scarf and AST followers did when we were managed by Mr Wenger?  Perhaps not.  Perhaps it is just an Arsenal thing.  (Incidentally I always pick those two supporters’ groups since both claim to be the biggest Arsenal supporters groups, so I think they ought to share the glory of their statements).

Then it is one of Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester who slip into the Europa along with one of West Ham, Tottenham Hots and Everton.   And then for the Andorran Conference it is one of Tottenham Hots, Everton and Arsenal.

I think our chances are very, very, modest, not because I don’t think we’ll beat Brighton and Hove, but rather because I suspect either the Hots or Everton will win.  And of course celebrate wildly.

But I really don’t think not being in Europe after 25 years is a bad thing.  Mr Arteta is coming under huge pressure from the likes of AST, journalists and bloggers, who can’t stand the fact that he has made incredible progress by adopting the approach that Mr Wenger used.  That approach of course being playing PGMO as well as the opposition, changing tactics, changing player positions, changing the playing styles of players not just between games but within a game.  It clearly fools (and rather sadly angers) some Arsenal fans, and certainly fools the opposition.

With PGMO and one or two of the clubs we face realising what we are up to, I think there could still be battles to come, and although playing the youngsters in the Conference gives them a chance to shine, the whole thing gives the media and bloggers a chance to snigger and sneer at every goal conceded by a less than completely experienced Arsenal man.

Besides, the Andorran Conference will be part of the season ticket, and played at 11pm on a monday (or something like that, details are not yet clarified) and given the journey I have to each match, yes it’s fun in the pub etc, but the getting home after midnight is a bit of a bore.

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3 comments to Arsenal v Brighton (and how we can get into the Conference)

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    So the UA through Mr Drummond has predicted a 2-1 home win for Arsenal tomorrow in their last Premier League match of the season against the visiting Brighton & HA team.

    Nevertheless, whatever be the final score-line in the match, but provided that Arsenal win it will be okay to me. More so okay to, if Arsenal win see them qualify for the inaugural ECL next season. Which will be at the expense of Tottenham Hs and Everton who are in better position to qualify than Arsenal are.

    And as us Gooners would have seen it, Everton have a good away record in winning PL games this season. So, I believe they will fancy their chance to possibly qualify by beating Man City at the Etihad tomorrow. But if Spurs fail to beat Leicester at away.

    But will Man City succumb to a home match defeat to Everton tomorrow? For, the Citizens will use the match as a send off party match to honour the club’s legend Aguero who is leaving the club. And who may likely play in the match as a starter or substitute. I don’t see Man City succumbing to a home match defeat to Everton tomorrow. Because Aguero’s send off party match will motivate Man City to not lose the match but win it or play to a draw game.

    The desperate Tottenham Hs team will play to beat Leicester at the King Power Stadium tomorrow. Where the Foxes have been weak losing to the opposition visiting teams in the PL this season. I can see the motivations that will spur Spurs on to win the match. Which will be to continue in their quest to finish above Arsenal. And if this resulted for them again tomorrow, it will see them qualify for the ECL next season.

    But Leicester still have a slim chance to qualify for next season’s UCL if Liverpool fail to win at home tomorrow I should think. Or is it if they lose? But since anything can happen on the final day of the season in the PL tomorrow. Leicester may want to keep their hopes alive to make the UCL by beating Spurs.

    But what do us Gooners and the Gunners alike need to do to see Arsenal get a 7th placed PL finish this season? Which if they get it tomorrow will see the club play European football next season for the 25th consecutive seasons. I think it is divine intervention prayers to God to make Arsenal qualify for the ECL next season that us Gooners and Gunners need to earnestly embark on to start praying to God unabated. Asking Him for His divine intervention to see Arsenal through to a 7th placed PL finish this season.

  • Mark

    Everton winning at City even if Pep plays a second “string” and Sp**s winning at Leicester are longish shots at best
    Leicester to win. Villa to get at least a draw. City to win.
    Then it’s up to us. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.
    Conference league? Experience for the younger players or those in the fringe? A bit more money.
    St Totteringhams day would be great no material the outcomes. COYG

  • Nitram

    Tony

    “…the whole thing gives the media and bloggers a chance to snigger and sneer at every goal conceded by a less than completely experienced Arsenal man”.

    My thoughts exactly.

    Every time we walk on the pitch it will give the naysayers the chance to mock and ridicule. Honestly I think we’d be better off without it. But hey continuing the ‘Being in Europe’ theme would be nice, as will finishing above Spurs, if that is also to be.

    My perfect day:

    Arsenal delivering a great win.

    Spurs delivering an embarrassing defeat.

    Everton winning.

    1: St Totterings day is back.

    2: We avoid the potential ridicule we will get every Monday night at 11pm !!

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