What will the league table look like after the next five games. A prediction

By Tony Attwood

We recently created a table made up of matches between the big seven clubs of the Premier League in order to remove any suggestion that Arsenal’s current success at the top of the league was due (as some were suggesting) to having had an easy fixture list so far.

In case you missed it, here it is again.

Arsenal 6 4 1 1 13 2.17
Manchester United 7 4 2 1 14 2.00
Liverpool 5 3 0 2 9 1.80
Manchester City 5 2 1 2 7 1.40
Newcastle United 6 2 3 1 6 1.00
Chelsea 5 0 2 3 2 0.40
Tottenham Hots 6 0 1 5 1 0.17


But what of the fixtures to come?   Are they going to be tougher for Arsenal than for other clubs?

One of the key factors we always take into account is the league table relating to the last six league games.  Here it is for the big seven…


Premier League Form (Last 6)
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 6 5 1 0 12 3 9 16
2 Manchester Utd 6 5 0 1 12 5 7 15
3 Newcastle United 6 4 2 0 9 1 8 14
4 Brentford 6 4 2 0 13 6 7 14
5 Aston Villa 6 4 1 1 11 7 4 13
6 Brighton & Hove 6 4 0 2 16 10 6 12
7 Fulham 6 4 0 2 9 5 4 12
8 Liverpool 6 4 0 2 11 10 1 12
9 Nott’m Forest 6 3 2 1 7 6 1 11
10 Manchester City 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
11 Tottenham Hots 6 2 1 3 11 11 0 7


Two games against other members of the big seven – the second and fourth most successful members of the group – but both are at home (not that this makes much difference this season).

  • Manchester United (H) – January 22
  • Everton (A) – February 4
  • Brentford (H) – February 11
  • Manchester City (H) – February 15
  • Aston Villa (A) – February 18

Prediction: three wins, two draws, no defeats.  Or maybe four wins – but we’ll stick with three for the projections.   11 points.

Manchester City 

Three games against other members of the big seven, but two of these are against Tottenham Hots who have failed to win a single game against any of the other members of the group – an astonishing failure of which the media seem to be totally ignorant. As they are of the fact that across the last six games they have only won half.

  • Tottenham Hotspur (H) – January 19
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) – January 22
  • Tottenham Hotspur (A) – February 5
  • Aston Villa (H) – February 12
  • Arsenal (A) – February 15

Prediction: A Man City recovery: three wins, two draws, 11 points.

Manchester United

  • Crystal Palace (A) – January 18
  • Arsenal (A) – January 22
  • Crystal Palace (H) – February 4
  • Leeds United (A) – February 12
  • Leicester City (H) – February 19

Prediction: Manchester United are second in the last six games table, so the chances are four wins and one defeat.  12 points.

Newcastle United 

Newcastle might have gone pounding up the league (they are third, nine points behind Arsenal) but they are not so hot against other top seven clubs.  But this is a dream fixture list for them – just the Liverpool away game seems a possible problem

  • Crystal Palace (A) – January 21
  • West Ham United (H) – February 4
  • Bournemouth (A) – February 11
  • Liverpool (H) – February 18
  • Brighton and Hove Albion (H) – February 25

Prediction: four wins one defeat.  12 points

Tottenham Hotspur 

The only thing that is more amazing than Totteham’s complete incompetence when playing other members of the big seven is the media’s ability to hide the fact.  

  • Manchester City (A) – January 19
  • Fulham (A) – January 23
  • Manchester City (H) – February 5
  • Leicester City (A) – February 11
  • West Ham United (H) – February 19

Prediction: two wins, a draw away to Fulham and two defeats to Manchester City.  Seven points.


  • Chelsea (H) – January 21
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – February 4
  • Everton (H) – February 13
  • Newcastle United (A) – February 18
  • Crystal Palace (A) – February 25

Ninth in the league as a whole, but third in our league table (above) of the top seven playing each other.  Might beat Chelsea and Everton at home, but away to Newcastle looks dodgy and another off day could see a drop of points to Palace.

Prediction: Two wins, one draw, one defeat.  Seven points.

Chelsea – 10th (25pts)

  • Liverpool (A) – January 21
  • Fulham (H) – February 3
  • West Ham United (A) – February 11
  • Southampton (H) – February 18
  • Tottenham (A) – February 26

Only Tottenham’s incompetence stops them being bottom of the Big Seven league (see above) so Chelsea should get three wins in the last three of these games, and maybe a draw with Fulham.  

Prediction: Three wins, one draw, one defeat. 10 points.

All of which would mean that the big seven table would then read…

Team Pts
Arsenal 58
Manchester City 49
Newcastle United 50
Manchester United 50
Manchester City 49
Tottenham Hotspur 40
Chelsea 38
Liverpool 35

Arsenal’s lead increases by one point to nine.   We shall see.



12 Replies to “What will the league table look like after the next five games. A prediction”

  1. Tony,

    I am sure that your rationale is quite reasonable and realistic. However, my superstitious side prevents me from making or relying on optimisitc predictions concerning Arsenal. I recall several past contributions from Samuel A.A which typically predicted high-scoring wins for Arsenal, which never turned out to be correct. I prefer to rely on the old cliche of one game at a time.

    I am usually confident that on a straightforward assessment of quality Arsenal are capable of beating any other team, but as we all know, other factors can play a decisive part in the outcomes which are achieved.

  2. John L,

    The “other factors” being the referees. I think Tony’s predictions will be close to spot on. Exactly when the scything of AFC players without penalty increases, and the Arseanl carding for phantom fouls begins, I’m not quite sure. It’s a little early. I think the next 5 matches will be similar to what we’ve seen. After that, beware!

  3. OT

    Sommer is going from Borrusia Mönchengladbach to Bayern Munich
    He is a very talented goalie, who gave all swiss fans the victory of their lifes in stopping Mbapé’s penalty and thus beating France at the 21 euros. last year he made I believe 21 saves against Bayern Munich in one game…

    Now just so you can start thinking….this proven goalie was sold for around 8 million euros and 1.5 million euros in bonuses. And is not 30 years old.

    Less then 10 million….just shows how things are different on the continent and how out of touch with the rest of the world the PL is.

  4. Keep an eye on VAR performance at the Palace v Man. Utd. game tonight. Neil Swarbrick will be VAR. He is Head of PL VAR implementation. In the past he has awarded fouls at extreme ratios (16:1 in favour of an away team). For further merriment, check out his Wikipedia page.

  5. It’s finished Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Man Utd.

    Crystal Palace equalising in the 91st minute.

    But how about this. Man Utd had a penalty appeal on 72minutes turned down by referee Robert Jones. That’s not the shock. Jones got the VAR man Swarbrick in his ear to go and check the monitor. Again no shock there.

    The thing is we all know what’s coming. But NO PENALTY. Apparently Jones took a look and stuck to his original call of no penalty.

    Cant see Jones working again !!!!!!!

    PS not seen the game just reading flash score.

  6. Been reading around and it sounds like VAR just turned the penalty down. No clear and obvious error apparently.

    Jones may still have a job after all.

  7. Well, Crystal Palace have shown they are not the perfect unbeatable team by having them lose 2 points. We are 8 points clear and have one game in hand. I’d say there are worse positions to be in.

  8. Off topic but in Belgium it is being said that Trossard has been bought from Brighton for around £ 26M.

  9. If true (Trossard) I will be happy as this will mean that the TV stations in Belgium will bring more Arsenal matches live…

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