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PL refs’ case studies: Friend

by Walter Broeckx

Next in our attempt to bring some statistic line in the referee world we will have a closer look at referee  Friend and how the teams are doing in general and when he is around.

First let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win %.

Is ref Friend a friend for your team or not? You can see it here.

Total won draw lost won draw lost Achieving
Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Friend

5

3

2

0

60,00%

40,00%

0,00%

Average
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Friend

9

3

3

3

33,33%

33,33%

33,33%

Average
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Friend

8

2

3

3

25,00%

37,50%

37,50%

Under
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Friend

10

7

2

1

70,00%

20,00%

10,00%

Over
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Friend

10

2

2

6

20,00%

20,00%

60,00%

Under
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Friend

10

6

2

2

60,00%

20,00%

20,00%

Over
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Friend

8

4

2

2

50,00%

25,00%

25,00%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Friend

3

3

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Friend

6

6

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Friend

8

1

5

2

12,50%

62,50%

25,00%

Under
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Friend

12

5

4

3

41,67%

33,33%

25,00%

Over
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Friend

13

8

1

4

61,54%

7,69%

30,77%

Over
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Friend

6

0

3

3

0,00%

50,00%

50,00%

Under
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Friend

9

2

3

4

22,22%

33,33%

44,44%

Average
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Friend

14

4

3

7

28,57%

21,43%

50,00%

Average
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Friend

8

0

4

4

0,00%

50,00%

50,00%

Under
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Friend

7

4

1

2

57,14%

14,29%

28,57%

Over
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Friend

11

2

4

5

18,18%

36,36%

45,45%

Average
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Friend

5

4

1

0

80,00%

20,00%

0,00%

Over
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Friend

12

4

4

4

33,33%

33,33%

33,33%

Average

As far as we can see Friend is a ref who can do all the teams in the PL. But as he is relatively new to the PL we have a lot of low data numbers on him. So we have to take some results with a pinch of salt. And in some cases with a big bag of salt.  But well we can only work with the numbers we have of course.

Let us start with the teams who perform close to their average standard in the PL.  The teams we can place in this category are Arsenal, Aston Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, WBA and Wigan.  That is 6 teams of the 20 in the PL.  The numbers of Arsenal are only based on 5 games so far. But it is worth nothing that we haven’t lost a game when Friend was in charge.

Let us move on to the teams who seem to over perform when Friend is around. One could say the friends of Friend.  Everton and Liverpool are big over achievers when he is around. And so are both teams from Manchester. The numbers for Manchester United are even more stunning with a 100% win record but that is only based on 3 games so far. So remember to keep the salt in the neighbourhood.  Another team doing extremely well under Friend is Newcastle. They also have a 100% win record over the 6 games he did.

QPR and Reading are also over achievers when Friend is around. But they didn’t see Friend enough to rescue them this season.  And also Tottenham and West Ham are very much over achievers when Friend does their games.  That is in total 9 teams who do better than can be expected compared to their average results.

So who are the teams who are paying the bill? Chelsea and Fulham are very much under achieving when Friend is around. He doesn’t like that part of London apparently. Norwich and Southampton are also doing not that good when this ref is in charge. But the worst team of them all is Swansea. They seem to have a Dean-ref in Friend.  They couldn’t win one game in the 8 games he has been in charge of Swansea. And that surely does look strange.

I think this table is a table where you could find strange results if you want to make a bet on to something.  Just imagine a game Swansea- Newcastle with Friend in charge. Most people would think of a Swansea win as the most natural outcome. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it would be Newcastle that would win it.

So some really strange outcomes in this table. But as he is rather young and for some teams hasn’t done a lot of games it all can change a bit in the next years of course. Hell, who knows even MU and Newcastle might lose a game when Friend is around.

Referee Analysis 2013

5 comments to PL refs’ case studies: Friend

  • Stuart

    I’d argue Arsenal are over here. If we’d had one loss instead of one of the draws then we’d be evens.

  • WalterBroeckx

    I usually take over when there is a difference of around 10%. So according that criteria he is average. One more win and he is over 😉

  • jordan

    You aren’t taking into account the actual calls he makes nor are you taking into account the quality of opponents faced while he was a referee. You only incorporate 1 variable; winning percentage.

  • Omietimi

    If u put the ball at back of the net,the ref will not disallow the goal ,so do dat nd stop complaining about refs

  • WalterBroeckx

    Jordan,
    of course we don’t in this article. But we do take those things in account in I think some 300-400 other articles about all the referees on this site.