Are we unique in doing so well after Christmas, and why 8 goals would sort it

By Tony Attwood

Nitram posed the question: “is this imbalance between the 1st and 2nd halves of seasons unusual, or do all clubs by and large experience similar imbalances?”

It’s a good question, and one that I had never thought about before.   So in this little piece I set out to discover the answer, and then see where that leads.  

Here is the league table from 1 January this year.

	Team		W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	16	9	6	1	37	20	17	33
2	Manchester United	16	10	3	3	33	24	9	33
3	Leicester City	16	9	2	5	29	20	9	29
4	Everton	16	9	2	5	26	20	6	29
5	Chelsea	16	7	5	4	31	18	13	26
6	Aston Villa	15	8	2	5	29	16	13	26
7	Tottenham Hotspur	15	7	5	3	26	15	11	26
8	Manchester City	14	7	5	2	21	12	9	26

Would anyone have looked at that and predicted that Manchester City would be the run away league winners this season?   I am really not too sure anyone would – and even if they did, not that they would be 13 points clear with two games to go.

So maybe big turn arounds, like that of Arsenal’s performance since Christmas Day, are actually more common than we realise.

Let’s go back and try and find out…

2020:  Liverpool were 10 points clear on 1 January and won the league by 18 points.

2019: Liverpool were 6 points clear on 1 January from Tottenham Hots in second place.  Man City won the league and Tottenham ended up fourth, 27 points behind the winners.

2018: There was no turnaround.  Man City were 12 points clear of Man Utd in January and 19 points clear at the end of the season.

2017: No turnaround here either.  Chelsea were six clear on 1 Jan and seven clear at the end of the season.

2016: Arsenal were top of the league on 1 January, on goal difference.  But Leicester won the league by 10 points with Arsenal in second place.

So there seems to be no rule.  You can have a season like this one where the team lying eighth at the start of the new year rushes to the top in the second half.  Or there can be a season where the same team runs away with it from the start to the end.  So never give up hope – at least not on 1 January.

But let’s try another approach: where were the winners the season before they won?

Season	Winners	Place previous season
2020/21	Manchester City	2nd
2019/20	Liverpool	2nd
2018/19	Manchester City	1st
2017/18	Manchester City	3rd
2016/17	Chelsea	10th
2015/16	Leicester	14th
2014/15	Chelsea	3rd
2013/14	Manchester City	2nd
2012/13	Manchester United	2nd
2011/12	Manchester City	3rd

So there is a tendency to approach winning the league by being second or third the season before winning the title.   In the ten seasons listed above the winners have been top the season before just once,  On four occasions they have been fourth, and on three occasions they have been third.

We can take it that although there have been two exceptions (Chelsea rising from 10th and Leicester from 14th) normally it is a top three finish that precedes a title.

So an assault on the title normally means coming second or third the season before.  (Incidentally it has nothing much to do with winning the FA Cup the season before either).

Clearly from this we can conclude that for Arsenal to get towards winning the title again Arsenal first needs to be getting into the Champions League places.

Which is very odd because it was doing exactly this year after year that created the uprising among Arsenal supporters which led to the “fourth is not a trophy” slogan which was a significant part of pushing Mr Wenger out. 

If Arsenal can push back into the top four next season it means turning three or four defeats of this season into victories.  Defeats such as four from this group.

Date	Match	Res	Score	Competition
9 Nov 2020	Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers	L	1-2	Premier League
13 Dec 2020	Arsenal v Burnley	L	0-1	Premier League
19 Dec 2020	Everton v Arsenal	L	2-1	Premier League
2 Feb 2021	Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal	L	2-1	Premier League
6 Feb 2021	Aston Villa v Arsenal	L	1-0	Premier League

What is interesting with these five defeats they were all by one goal and came in two bursts.  One goal in each of those would have obviously given us five more points which would mean we would be sixth – back in the Europa League.

Two goals in three of those games and one goal in the remaining two would have given us fourth place.  So that’s how far we are away.  Eight goals.

Now our top scorers this season in the Premier League have been Lacazette 13, Aubameyang 10, Pepe 6, Saka 5, with several players on two. I think we can expect all of those numbers to be exceeded next season which could give us the eight goals we need.

Each of those players getting two more across the whole season would take us back to fourth is not a trophy.  Which would be good as long as that is not immediately seen to be not good enough and the manager is thrown out and down we go again.

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