By Tony Attwood
Slowly but surely, the wattage of support (if support can be measured in wattage) has risen. Before the game the club now often plays with the lights flashing them on and off in fancy sequences, the sound levels are up and there is a really positive feel about the place.
No matter how difficult it is to get into the stadium (and last night it was difficult with extra levels of searching still continuing and queues stretching back so far that it became impossible to walk around the stadium to get to one’s correct entrance), no matter that we started the game five points off the leaders, no matter than we had most of our squad injured, and that we knew Alexis would be missing, no matter anything. The atmosphere was excellent.
As for the Man City supporters there were no more protests about the cost of going in, largely because if they held the right bit of membership they could buy the seats for a discounted price. Besides, they knew that if they did boycott then their spare tickets would be sold to Arsenal supporters (exactly as happened before) and snapped up at once.
And of the sad little fellow with his “Enough is Enough” t-shirt, there is no sign. From the moaning youngster who sits behind me there was… nothing I could hear. But the noise level is very good.
And so it should be – this is a great team. “Arsenal are no longer one dimensional” said the Telegraph, desperately trying to excuse their past hatred of the club. Even for those who thought that Arsenal might once have been one-dimensional (a view I don’t share) surely the Man U away game in the FA Cup in March this year overthrew all such old prejudices.
Or apparently not.
Mind you the bloggettas are still constantly harping on about the thinness of the squad forgetting the recent sequence of events, and particularly, as Walter noted, the part Mathieu Flamini has played in it. We were told we would fall apart without Coquelin, and that the “refusal” to buy a back up was “irresponsible”. And the Telegraph in its “5 things” piece today said, “it remains clear that further midfield reinforcement is needed”. But even they now admit “at Arsenal’s moment of great need, Flamini has stood tall.”
Indeed one begins to wonder about the Telegraph when today under a pic of Mangala they have the heading, “Eliaquim Mangala cost City £42,000,000,000 and should have kept the receipt”
Anyway, because the law in England is now that if you publish a paper you have to have lots of “5 Things we learned” columns, the Independent has such a list which includes
City do not have enough resilience to be champions
Walcott is now becoming the finished article, at last
So the media wakes up to the notion that the club is consistent (until the next defeat at which point we would have a 5 Things list which includes the notion that Arsenal are not consistent enough to win the league).
“Character is down to consistency,” Arsène Wenger said. “All of us can be exceptional, for one day in our life. But character is to have a target, and maintain your focus on it. That is what I call character, and what we have to show.”
So here we are in an era in which Chelsea have sacked their manager, Man U are said to be about to sack their manager and if he doesn’t win the league, Man City will do the same in the spring. Funny ol’ game.
But a word more must be said about Theo. He can play left wing, right wing, centre forward, and if required (as last night) deep winger who goes back to harry and stand in the way of attackers. Just like Gibbs is being re-invented as an attacking midfielder who can also defend.
And when we still thought that Alexis was going to return for the Boxing Day game we were all saying what a shame that was for Joel Campbell who would be dropped. He is really growing in this team – an excellent player of high quality who plays a major part in worrying the opposition to death wherever he turns up.
But no, hang on, that can’t be right. We’re down to the bare bones. Wenger was culpable for not buying…
Thus slowly, in a desperate attempt to re-write the past, it is now acknowledged in the media that while the average Premier League club (that is the average across the 20 clubs) spent fractionally under £43,000,000 on transfers in the summer, Arsenal spent £10 million. An outrage!
We now have an injury crisis (the media don’t call it that any more, but the numbers remain much the same, so if it were a crisis in November it must be a crisis in December). And yet we are still winning. Unbelievable!
[Hang on, I thought we agreed that we only used exclamation marks for Liverpool! – Billy “the dog” executive publication director]
[Sorry! Tony]
And how? By buying players and developing them, to play along a few high price maestros introduced of late. Aaron Ramsey is still developing, still introducing new ideas, still adding power. And he’s still only 24.
And Giroud. Remember the endless, endless, resourceless criticism of Giroud? He has made 22 starts this season (including internationals) and scored 19 goals! 10 Premier League goals in 11 starts!! He’s never man of the match, but he just gets on with it.
And Mesut Özil, of whom the jury is still out, ho ho. Every defender in the League knows what he does and how he does it, and he still can’t be stopped. 15 Premier League assists including assists against every other top six club in the Premier League.
Not surprisingly the Guardian’s “5 Things” started with
Wenger’s side look well placed for title charge
“Looking forward to watching the battle for second place,” snarled Gary Lineker before the game. Our next three games are Southampton, Bournemouth and Newcastle and when it comes to the battle of the top two in the re-run of our 5-2 victory at Leicester, it might not be the top two any more. And I don’t think that will be because we have slipped.
Also in the Guardian’s 5 Things there is a piece on Ramsey as well, which quoted Mr Wenger as saying,“He comes alive when he plays through the middle,” in the programme. Indeed.
But they go out on a limb with
4) Guardiola and Arsenal could be a perfect fit
Pep Guardiola is leaving Bayern Munich at the end of the season and, if the rumour mill is to be believed, has all but agreed to take over at City. The Spaniard has also been linked with Manchester United and Chelsea, but what about Arsenal? Wenger’s contract with the club runs until May 2017 but with Guardiola available would it not make sense for he and the Arsenal board to consider making a managerial change 12 months early to take advantage of an opportunity that may not come up again?
Anyway back to the players, the consensus says it was Ozil and Walcott who took the honours. Maybe so, but everywhere you looked there was quality, style and dedication.
And that extra bit that Mertesacker revealed in an interview. “We are capable of doing different things in different games, and that is what makes it harder for the opponent. We go game by game and concentrate on having a game-plan and trying to implement it. That has been our strength so far against the big teams, and it makes us stronger as a unit.”
Anyway, the papers have started picking up on the Untold idea of looking at where teams who were top of the league at this time of year, ended up. Here’s the chart… I think it comes from the Telegraph, but I’ve lost my note.
| TOP AT XMAS | SEASON | FINAL POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich City | 1992-1993 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 1993-1994 | 1 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 1994-1995 | 1 |
| Newcastle United | 1995-1996 | 2 |
| Liverpool | 1996-1997 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 1997-1998 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 1998-1999 | 6 |
| Leeds United | 1999-2000 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 2000-2001 | 1 |
| Newcastle United | 2001-2002 | 4 |
| Arsenal | 2002-2003 | 2 |
| Manchester United | 2003-2004 | 3 |
| Chelsea | 2004-2005 | 1 |
| Chelsea | 2005-2006 | 1 |
| Manchester United | 2006-2007 | 1 |
| Arsenal | 2007-2008 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 2008-2009 | 2 |
| Chelsea | 2009-2010 | 1 |
| Manchester United | 2010-2011 | 1 |
| Manchester City | 2011-2012 | 1 |
| Manchester United | 2012-2013 | 1 |
| Liverpool | 2013-2014 | 2 |
| Chelsea | 2014-2015 | 1 |
And just one final bit. At the start of the season you could have got 4/1 on Eden Hazard being PFA player of the season. Now he is 100/1.
Makes you think.
Tony
You ask, “Where on earth have the anti-Arsenal Arsenal “fans” gone?”
Well, not far it would seem going by what a couple of the guys have said. By all accounts they are still in there usual places, tap tap tapping away with there usual copious amounts of bile and hatred.
Like a turd in a cease pit, one rainy day and it’s back on the surface stinking the place out.
The aaaa don’t like it when we do well, so they must have gone into hibernation. Just waiting for a minor slip up. Some fans…
Don’t worry – the snivelling negativists will be back as soon as we so much as have a draw.
Guardiola is a good manager – but does seem to have a limited shelf-life. A more respectful version of Mourinho? I am hoping for at least 4 more years from Wenger – perhaps we consider Guardiola then? I personally wouldn’t swap Wenger for anyone at all.
Final thought: Since our “one man team”, Sanchez, was injured we have played four games… and won the lot. A great tribute to (i) our strength in depth and (ii) Wenger’s motivational powers.
Keep up the good work untold! it just feels great reading your articles, cos you always speaking out the things I wanna say. The hate on Arsenal, and in particular Wenger, from the so-called Arsenal SUPPORTERS has been quite unbelievable in recent seasons. Blogger Arsenal Truth is a perfect example. With supporter like him, who needs rival fans?
A lot of Arsenal fans are cautiously optimistic as we have been in this position many times before to only fall away before the end of the season.I think we have to try and strengthen in january if just to cover for the injuries that mount up after periods with many games.We are still fighting on 3 fronts and surely a bigger squad would help us to push on .
I believe Arsenal should be challenging for the title on a regular basis. Does that make me an anti-Arsenal Arsenal “fan”?
They are still around, but hopefully, SOME of the more sensible of the spectrum of critics might, just might be starting to turn towards this excellent group.
If some cannot enjoy games like that,they really need to find a new way of passing the time
The AAA is still here, hiding under rocks, behind your bog ready to proclaim “I told you so” as soon as Arsenal slip up.
Pete
I know you probably love arsene more that your wife but im sorry to have to be a realist and tell you that although the AAA are blinkered but sometimes the AKB s can be too.Guardiola is the best and mosh highly respected manager in world football at the moment.
What happened to Adam kemp lol
John – I don’t dispute that he has achieved great success – and his Barcelona team were probably the best I have ever seen. However he did inherit two, huge, dominant clubs. Like Mourinho, I would really be interested to see how he does if/when he takes over a club just below the elite in their League and/or has financial constraints.
Wenger has come through that test with flying colours. Guardiola (and Mourinho) have not yet. I still wouldn’t swap Wenger for Guardiola. I just don’t think people appreciate how fortunate we have been these last 20 years.
Wenger took over a club which had just scraped into 5th place, and the UEFA Cup, playing in a 38,000 seat stadium. 3 titles, 6 FA Cups, a state-of-the-art 60,000 seat stadium (and new training ground) later… we are transformed. And I really believe the best is yet to come.
There are no anti-Arsenal Arsenal fans, there are fans like me who want the best for Arsenal. We want Arsenal to be at the top both in England and in Europe and bring pressure to bear on Arsene Wenger and the board to do the right thing. At the moment, things are going the way we want and the momentum should be sustained by strengthening the team in the January window. We should not entertain the usual January implosion this season; we want the title. We are sick and tired of 11 years of seeing the EPL title rotate between Man City, Chelsea and Man United season in, season out. Most of the previous comments on this blog are utter rubbish!
Pete I really hope that the best is yet to come but im unsure ,as good as wenger has been im not certain that he can get us to the heights of 98-2003 again.Having said that we have our best chance in over a decade to push to the league title.One or two quality signings in january should help this push.Chelsea and utd are the weakest they have been in years and i dont think city are that great either.One things for sure next season those three teams will be stronger with new managers coming in.
@tony ha ha ha ha ha i just like your piece as always,the sewer rats as i always call them are in the sewers’ its almost winter so they always run to the sewers and chew on a few stuff down there.
But as i told them earlier that this site will be joyful all season so they might take longer deep down there. Ramsey is a class apart but as of yesterday we could have killed of man$ity had he not been selfish and give Walcot the ball on several chances. Hope he learns from Ozil.
A good post NT.What a lot of people on here cant get to grips with is that we can be critical of Wenger and still love Arsenal FC and want them to be the best.We have won 2 F.A cups in 11 years and for a club the size of ours i would say we have under achieved.We dont all blame billionaires,money,referees ,injuries and bad tackles on lack of trophys but it doesnt mean we are all AAA” hiding under rocks” or”sniveling negatives” or “spouting our bile or hatred” .
In my experience, the majority of the fans at the Stadium are pro-Arsene…
I know that there are a few exceptions, who are gleefully reported on by the media, but in general I find those attending games far more positive…
Well that’s how I find it where I stand…
Not sure what that says?
But John and NT what is your take on AKBs. Do they exist? Seems to me that others are wrong for believing in him and are often told to take Arsetheir head ‘out of his ass’. Having said that I can tell you that AAAs do exist, just check out ARSENAL TRUTH
John – But that is my point, managerial instability is NOT usually a recipe for short-term success. New managers, new teams, new styles. Perhaps the season after next? But hopefully their trigger-happy owners will tear things up again after they aren’t successful next season and start again. Fortunately, they don’t seem to learn…
As for your 2 FA Cups in 11 years, that is true. But so is 2 FA Cups in 2 years. As a poster on another site put it today, we should be thinking about the future, not the past. And I believe the future is bright – the future is red and white!
Sir, Mr Tony. Attwood, no disrespect. Please let’s keep aside, where the AAA, AOBs, AKBs, Arsenal Supporters Trust(AST) are. For me, I belonged to the general Gooners and I also ascribed to supporting the AKBs group because I believe in the Boss.
However, I would preferred we focus on our away game against the Saints which kick-off late on Boxing Day according to the game starts time that I’ve seen on the internet. Despite the fact that Southampton have not won in their last 4 outings, that failure could make them stubborn to want to beat us to all the 3 points that are going to be at stake at Saint Mary’s on Christmas Boxing day.
In the light of being proactive, the Boss & the Gunners MUST BE PROACTIVE(that’s the Gunners’ game app key) to contain the Saints in all ramifications of the game as the Saints are torted to want to put and end to their winless run in their recent games.
In particulars, Victor Wanyama and Sadio Mane would want to perform very well in this match to market themselves to the Boss for his possible signings during this near transfer open widow. The Gunners MUST have to keep a portion of their eyes on these duo to timely put their game excesses into constant check.
Saint Mary’s has been a troublesome ground for the Gunners in the last 2 seasons as they have lost to the Saints last season and were held the season before the last. I believe the Boss now has another balance starting XI now that excludes, Coquelin, Cazorla and even Sanchez who have delivered 4 wins out of 4 games. I believe the Boss will keep to this his latest consistent balance starting XI for the Saints game. No changes to the starts will be necessary provided there isn’t any genuine reason for introducing a change.
John
You say:
“A good post NT. What a lot of people on here cant get to grips with is that we can be critical of Wenger and still love Arsenal FC and want them to be the best. We have won 2 F.A cups in 11 years and for a club the size of ours i would say we have under achieved”
Sorry, but nobody says Wenger is beyond critisism.
-He has bought duds but who hasn’t. But when you consider he’s been trying to find Diamonds in a pile of rocks he hasn’t done bad.
-Yes he could make different subs, use different tactics and sometimes yes he gets it wrong, but so do all managers. And anyway, a lot of the time even that’s subjective. Who you would play/take off may be different to me, or Walter or whoever. The difference is though, if it doesn’t work out I’m not all over the internet screaming Wenger out every time he makes a mistake. For example, last night, personally I wouldn’t of taken Campbell off. If we’d of drawn would I of been on here screaming the odds about it? No. But maybe that’s just me.
-Yes, he perhaps could of bought the odd player here and there that he didn’t. On his own admission he’s passed over, or missed out on a few diamonds but doesn’t every manager? The truth is, given his budget, his dealings in the transfer market are remarkable.
And relating to that, it’s this bit that I just wont have. You state:
“We have won 2 F.A cups in 11 years and for a club the size of ours i would say we have under achieved.”
Does none of the following mean a thing to you?
Last 10 years net spend PER SEASON (or loss if you prefer)
MC = £52 Million per season
MU = £32 Million per season
Ch = £47 Million per season
AR = £7 Million per season
Last 5 years net spend PER SEASON
MC = £65 Million per season
MU = £60 Million per season
CH = £45 Million per season
AR = £20 Million per season
Over the last 3 years alone:
Man City have a net transfer spend of £260 Million. They lost £110 Million on transfers last Summer alone
Man Utd have a net transfer spend of £200 Million. They lost £40 Million last Summer.
Chelsea have a net transfer spend of £90 Million. They lost £35 Million last Summer.
And you think, taking that into account, we’ve underachieved ? Really ?
You also say:
“We don’t all blame billionaires, money…..”
It’s not ‘Blame’ it’s a fact.
It’s a fact that Chelsea and City, for TEN years had TEN times the amount of money to spend on transfers than Wenger did, and that’s not to mention the amount of money that United had to spend.
So it’s not a blame game regarding money, it’s fact, and it’s a fact you seem to either be in denial of or point blank refuse to accept has any significance.
And one last point, no, not all the people that I/we may lump together under the banner of the AAA spout bile and hatred but many do. You may not. But as I say, many do.
Reidish, if that is your present view that does not make you aaa. If however you had that view while the club was paying for the new stadium, then no necessarily, but it does seem a bit unrealistic to me. As an earlier post showed, most of the clubs that have built new stadia in the modern era have been relegated.
I wouldn’t swap Wenger for Guadiola…he is a journey man,just like Mourinho….all he cares about is his ego…wants to out do Mourinho in the Number of Top Clubs Managed…he would not stay with us…and we dont want such a Manager.
Tony
Your question: “Where on earth have the anti-Arsenal Arsenal “fans” gone?”
My Answer: On LeGrove and that thing called twitter.
In fact, they were having a go at the substitutions Wenger made and rounding on Ramsey within 5 minutes of the final whistle sounding. While the rest of us were jumping around in delight, they were try9ing to find something to moan ablout and jump on Wengers for. They have it bad these clowns. They have an automatic knee jerk reaction to discredit Wenger as soon as we get a good result, trying to desperately save face. This time it was about poor substitutions and taking Ozil off – which is ironic because they usually accuse Wenmger of ‘breaking’ Ozil by NOT taking him off’.
Before the game they were abusing Flamini; and Wenger for sticking with him. Apparently he and Mertesacker were going to get roasted by Silva and Aguero, which is highly amusing.
Funny lot arent they? Crap fans we could certainly do without pissing on the club.
Franck.
“I wouldn’t swap Wenger for Guadiola…he is a journey man,just like Mourinho….all he cares about is his ego…wants to out do Mourinho in the Number of Top Clubs Managed…he would not stay with us…and we dont want such a Manager”.
I agree franck.
Another one of these so called ‘great’ managers that inherit a strong squad and are able to spend big. Managing Bayern in a One Team league is a guarantee of at least a league title – with all due respect my Grandmother could have a go at that and she’s 6 feet under. At Barca, ina two team league, he hardly inherited the Watford team nor did he have to balance the books.
A great manager is one that builds a team and developes players without being able to lure the very best or outspend other managers. Now that’s a challenge. I would argue that building a team and having to regularly sell your best players to your rivals to service a debt but remain competitive is a challenge that would test any manager and would find most wanting. Not that the media would know of course. To be called a great, show the difficulty of the job at hand and lets measure the achievement against that.
Samuel
“In particulars, Victor Wanyama and Sadio Mane would want to perform very well in this match to market themselves to the Boss for his possible signings during this near transfer open widow.”
Good point about Wanyama, he’ll be on fire for this game.
Just seen Arsenal Truth – hadn’t been there for quite a while. OMG. That’s off the scale.
proudkev
But haven’t you read what John’s had to say? All they want is the best for Arsenal.
Clowns indeed.
But be careful with your insults kev otherwise we’ll have John claiming they don’t all have six foot long feet and bright red noses.
NT and John.
For what period did Arsene have the resources to compete with Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd?
It is ignorant comments about “11 Years” which demonstrates why you feel like you do.
You seem to want to pretend we had all this money and that the Russian and the Arab oweners didnt spend a billion quid.
That is denial.
On what planet would anyone expect us to compete on that basis?
If you had an expectation level of titles when we had massive restrictions on spending and the other clubs were going bananas – you cant blame Wenger or us for that.
No doubt you want what you ‘think’ is best for Arsenal and we don’t but that is utter bollocks. Your judgement on the past is flawed and you are not judging like for like. That seems to be where we differ in opinion. You seem to have expected Wenger to compete with the huge spenders while trying to break even. My mate lives in a huge £1.5m house because he earns more money than me – that’s the way of the world. My wife isnt moaning at me about that.
Please don’t think you are the only fans who want Titles and success, you’re not. The difference is the way we view the past because the future is starting to look very good. Look around you, this club is unrecognisable from what it once was.
I am confident we are on the verge of something huge here.
If a needed player is available in January have no doubt he will be bought.
Come on, please give the moaning a break and enjoy the season without trying to discredit Wenger at every opportunity.
proudkev
You always seem to put things so much better and more succinctly than I can ever manage. Brilliant.
@NT
@John
I can only second @Jambug…
you claim two cups in 11 years(seasons) for a club of our size is not good enough, but …
…how blatantly ignorant people can be, it still amazes me,
Since 2006 we sold how many star players and replaced them with rough diamonds, teenagers and occasional squillaci or Gervinho?… I don’t have to tell you John but Arsenal really grew into the size we are now only since Wenger took over as a manager. He together with David Dein helped to build the brand of Arsenal and it wouldn’t be what it is today without them.
And as you have rightly pointed out it is these 11 years that were the fundamental period for the club, a transition to new stadium, establishing and nurturing the academy as we have it today, stabilising financial part of running the club on a pretty much self sustained model without having to pump nearly £1 bln into a club like city did for instance.
So if you ever decide to take a step back and and look at things with a realistic (and that is isn’t very rosy) point of view you’ll understand that the Board sacrificed trophies for what was essential in order to ensure financially safe existence of the club. I believe that we are now at a point where we have reached a nearly even ‘playing field’ in sense of how much money we can spend on transfers and players wages and we no longer have to worry if city or Barcelona or Man U will poach our stars, but we should never forget that if a player will want to leave so he will.
Proudkev
We are here now December 2015 and challenging for the league.We havent got any money restaints.We have so called one of the best scouting networks in world football with a manager everyone wants to play for.We have quite a big injury list.Some back soon,some of our key players not back for a few months.Do we play for the rest of the season with the squad we have,knowing that theres the League ,F.a cup and champions league still to play for???Or do we try to strengthen the team and squad and try to push on?
If Wenger decides not to strengthen and keep the money in the bank and we win the league he looks and will be a genius.It will be like sticking 2 fingers up to the the big spenders that it can be done that way and football has prevailed.
But what if more key players burn out or get injured and we drop off like we have done before??Who will take the blame then?
I want Wenger to be proved right and that we can do it without spending much but there is something saying in the back of my mind that we have been here before …and many times.
Bad news, people.
It seems our victory will be revoked.
Reason?
Andre Marriner has complained about how Arsene Wenger had breached the fair-play by putting both Kieran Gibbs and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain on the pitch at the same time which confused Marriner so he couldn’t concentrate on making up penalties for Manchester City. 🙁
😉
John
Why do people like you always want to blame someone? It really is pathetic.
If you really must attach blame start with Mike Riley and the PGMO.
If we don’t win it so be it, we will go again next year.
Bringing in a new player mid-season can be dangerous. There is a risk of (i) upsetting squad harmony and/or (ii) not adapting to the team style. I remember Asprilla being bought by Newcastle to strengthen their title challenge – in actual fact this was one of the key reasons they failed.
The time to buy is the summer where the players can bed in in pre-season rather than be expected to adapt straight away.
It can work – but it is a risk.
My concern is the Xmas period – by January players will be coming back.
I just can’t get over people using profanity to describe a player/manager/person whom they do not know outside of the person’s professional persona. If the person has had trouble with the law, driven while intoxicated, beat his wife, sneaked up and poked someone in the eye during a fracas then I would say you may have something to hang on him but otherwise, a little charity should be in order. Criticize their footballing decision until the cows come home but with a modicum of restraint. Calling them a turd (a la Arsenal Truth) is shamefully rude. Arsene Wenger is not a perfect person but he has always tried to act like a gentleman with the media and in his dealings with his players. He is undeserving of the flack that he gets from the bloggers and commenters who hide behind their anonymity and free speech rights to attack him.
There are plenty of so called Arsenal fans out there who clearly hate the club, players and manager…..and most of the fans, they are not hard to find.
Of course some of them are in reality supporters of rival clubs, but not all of them.
Some fans are critics, some even constructive critics, but some are haters, surely by definition anti Arsenal Arsenal fans.
Let’s remember that a new manager is,regardless of his former credentials, never guaranteed success at his new club. Mourinho’s decline over 1 season is proof of that and the merry-go-round that is Liverpool and the Totts, represent how hopeless a rapid change of manager can become. I remind you that Wenger has ALWYS said he will strengthn in any tranfer window ONLY if the addition will improve the team individually and overall (a la Ozil,Cech etc.) and you can bet your botoom dollar that he has a list of possible additions he is seriously looking at. That said, he is also looking to gradually wean his youth and reserve players into the EPL and part of that is to have them sit on the beach during EPL games and occasionally get a run out, as short as that may be.
Yes, we could add a player or two over the Jan.window, BUT yes we might NOT as well and we have the depth to choose either path thanks to Wenger. We will be getting Welbeck, Sanchez, Wilshere, Coquelin, Rosicky and Arteta back sooner than later so Wenger HAS to take that into account as well.
Let me be clear that being an aaa is not just criticizing the club or the manager, we all do that at least once in a season, however it is the relentless negative criticism of players and manager, unsupported by any facts or real proof, and the happiness we see from these pseudo-supporters when the Arsenal falter, that marks them, among other things, as being against Arsenal and pro Doom and Gloom. So If the show fits, wear it, if not welcome to being a true supporter.
Lots of typos in my post……….sincere excuses!!!!
Playing with numbers
I was reading some not very technical articles on how goal scoring is observed in football. And most of these writers seem to be old school, let’s make approximations so that we get easy math to work with.
In looking through the EPL rankings, the majority of the table doesn’t score much more than 1 goal per game on average.
So, I decided to compare two teams who score goals according to a negative binomial distribution, which means that the variance in scoring is more than the mean in scoring. One team was expected to score 1.1 goals per game, and the other team was expected to score 1.2 goals per game.
I had these two teams play each other 20 times in a season, and I looked at 40 seasons (800 games in total).
The most common scoreline was 0-0. The 0-1 scoreline (favoring the higher scoring team) occurred 103 times, compared to 82 for 1-0. The most goals scored by the higher scoring team was 12 (3-12, once). The lower scoring team had a 10 goal game, winning 10-1.
Looking at seasons, the higher scoring team won 23 of the seasons and they tied 6. In seasons where the higher scoring team won the season; the goal difference ranged from the lower scoring team having 4 more, to the higher scoring team scoring 20 more. Likewise, in those seasons where the lower scoring team actually won the season, it didn’t always have a positive goal difference.
While 800 games is a lot more than one can usually find data for between 2 clubs, it isn’t enough to give smooth histograms of results. And the negative binomial has 2 parameters to fiddle with, and I only tried 2 settings of 1 parameter.
But, the “better” team only won a little over half of the seasons. The statistics don’t always work out in the end. Just a side effect of small numbers.
Would I swap Mr Wenger for Pep……never. I dont like his brand of football. I call it sterile possession. Which is not the ARSENAL brand of football. The Man City game is an example of that. Overall we had 40% possession BUT we had 5 shots on target. Thats the ARSENAL brand of potent football. And long may it continue….
I think, Mr Wenger has atleast 6 more years. if not 9 (if health permits). So its too early to think about his successor.
Q – Where on earth have the ‘them’ “fans” gone?
A – Who the fuck cares ? Not me , for one . None of ‘them ‘ were ever Arsenal fans to begin with . Not by my definition . The lack of ‘them’ here makes it more fun here .And blissful ,and positive , and ,and…well you get the point!
So let the begones be gone !
Don’t you just hate it when your filthy rich enemies are about to get some great Christmas joy and probably a happy new year ? What with new playthings and all .
a) That the 3 richest clubs in the EPL are all about to get spanking brand new managers soon ?
One among them whom may have been just offloaded as being unsuitable and very un-Christmassy ! And he did get a large payola for his efforts ?) !
b)That they are going to dip into their bottomless money sacks to buy more expensive players to improve their teams and bring cheer to their fans ?
But don’t mention it to them that they have already bought some choice duds earlier in the season !
c)That the ostriches will sing the usual seasonal parrotings of ‘Spend more fucking money ‘ , ‘Strengthten the spine ‘ and , ‘Monster DMs ‘ and World class strikers ‘ , on and on and on and on…….zzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Again all those the ostriches mentioned have moved , but have not done the deed. Square pegs in round holes , anyone ?
d) As for the Arsenal , no one will come acalling for our players ,as we have been told that man for man- they are all crap . Except for the World Class GK , Petr Cech , of course who was signed at the insistence of the so called ‘experts’.
Wenger , the eternal scrooge will be again be visited by the ghosts of EPL Trophies past . And true to form he sleeps through it all !
As for the AKBs – those hard core supporters , keepers of the faith , true believers and do-righters on Untold Arsenal , will take it all in their strides and keep on enjoying the ride , however bumpy or draughty it gets !
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE !
Correcting my post at 4.37pm yesterday (and John’s prior one), it is actually THREE FA Cups in 11 years. Don’t believe everything you read!
@ arsenal 13…. u said u don’t like pep brand of play…..as arsenal fan I wil swap wenger for pep anyday anytime bcos pep is the king of tiki taka…..moreso,pep sold ronaldinho,eto,and deco who wia world best @ that tym and play wiv their players from their academy and went on to win 6 trophies…I knw u can come up wiv wenger play wiv youths dt was y he have nt bn able to win all these while …for me pep is the best 4 for now
Wenger is a human and hez bound to make mistake which is subject to criticism….in the last 3 years, arsenal have been lifted by the signings of ozil,sanchez and cech….which the players confirmed themselves and if those 3 players were mention back then and were not bought I believe untold will come out with a stats that back up our same players that have not been able to win trophy for a while….. Ospina sat on the bench when cech came to arsenal(bcos cech is better than him)……So if a player is better than conquelin out there why can’t we get him if he intends to play for us…for God sake they r been paid to play….conquelin is not playing 4 free and also the rest…
Brickfields
There are a lot of ARSENAL fans out there who think that there is life after wenger and that when he goes in a couple of years time know that the emirates wont come crashing down.We can still be Blissful and positive but still have our eyes open and see whats really happening.The people who woulnd’t want Guardiola to replace wenger are probably the same ones who were origionally against Petr Cech coming in and thought Chez and Ospina were good enough for us to win the league.
Lots of interesting comments. Mine is not. I would just like to ask why people who are constantly critical of the club and are never happy don’t just stop “supporting”? We don’t want them and they don’t like the club. Just do everyone a favour.
It reminds me somewhat of a readers letter in Viz of some years ago. It read, “Man Utd fans, get your Germany shirts now as it looks like they’re going to win the World Cup.” But it’s true, if people don’t actually “support” the club (particularly when we’re doing well) then just go and leave the rest of us to do the actual “supporting”.
Goonermickey
‘I would just like to ask why people who are constantly critical of the club and are never happy don’t just stop “supporting”? We don’t want them and they don’t like the club. Just do everyone a favour.’
I have asked this question on here before, as have many others, but an answer from the people the question is directed at have never offered an explanation.
Comments such as those from @John are now to be expected. Those of @John views, and there of those with far more vitriolic views than him, stem from the stadium build and the (I would say unrealistic) expectations that they set for Arsenal in this period. Views formed over this time are now entrenched. In their minds eye Arsenal could’ve have and should have competed for the League and the Champions League during this period of time time, Arsenal had money to spend. The manager under performed and some of them would say he should’ve been sacked. Opposing views, such as mine are just as entrenched. I don’t believe that any of this will change until Arsene Wenger retires and we all experience an alternative. We should all move on from this and enjoy what we have now.
There is one thing that I regularly don’t like about this blog, and it really is just the one thing, and that is the continued use of AAA. I think it is negative, provocative and just as bad as Le Grove’s continued use of AKB. It prompts reactions like we are seeing in this comments section – but perhaps that’s the intent. Other than that this blog has a splendid, supportive, respectful and positive attitude towards the club and its supporters.
If we could fast forward 10 years from now, no matter whether those years have been wildly successful or indeed mediocre I think all Arsenal fans will look back on the post 2006 Wenger years with respect and admiration at a wonderful job done but for now we are are still living it. Indeed if you look at Wenger’s whole record over nearly 20 years, Arsenal has never seen its like before.
Gooner S
How else should we call them?
I personally think calling them AAA is letting them off far too lightly. I would call them AAT, Anti Arsenal Traitors.
Having entrenched views is one thing, actively wishing bad results on the club in the hope it will bring about Wengers demise is something totally different.
John & NT – The royal ‘we’ have won 2 FA cups must be realistic. Arsene Wenger won the FA cups with a very smart team of players ina team that plays together. So do not assume you had anything to do with it. Wenger is the creator & the brains behind the state of Arsenal now, & for the past 20 years.
Wenger does not need to be taught balance of football teams. He is a magnificent student of the game & there is nobody I know of who can surpass him.
Guardiola is a successful tactician with a known set of quality players. Mourinho is similar except he has unsporting methods of play. Fergy did a great job building teams but also built an infrastructure of chicken livered PGMO officials to help. Man United was a key club for the financial success of English FA & TV. It was supported subvertively to success.
Todays EPL is more free & has still to overcome the FA & PGMO bias & bent interpretation of the Laws of The Game. The Dean officiating of the Chelsea v Arsenal game is an example of the corrupt way the FA & PGMO behave. They have no responsibility nor shame.
It is time some of you who think you support Arsenal realise that Arsenal is where it is today because of Wenger & his vision (‘I did not see that’). The media started to take the piss but now stink of piss because they have been shown up by Wenger.
Be grateful for the beautiful football that Arsenal play because of Wenger. Wengaball the Beautiful Game.
razac -when you learn to add numbers maybe you will understand cost v creation. Wenger creates. Guardiola costs. Pep may have sold good players to improve his team – incidentally they were Cryuff creation that played in a similar way to Wengers. Wenger is not an original when it comes to making the ball do the work, just a unique blend of methods within a controlled budget. Wenger stabilised Arsenal despite the tapping up of many of his star players. It is the budgetary control that the Peps & Joses don’t know. Wenger is uniquely smart in both financial & methodical football.
Brickfield Gunners
“Q – Where on earth have the ‘them’ “fans” gone?
A – Who the fuck cares ? Not me, for one. None of ‘them’ were ever Arsenal fans to begin with. Not by my definition. The lack of ‘them’ here makes it more fun here. And blissful ,and positive, and, and…well you get the point!”
Indeed I do. I love this site but you may of noticed (well you probably didn’t actually, but that’s not important) that every now and then I disappear.
To cut a long story short it’s ‘THEM’.
I can take defeat. Actually I quite enjoy dissecting a poor result. What went wrong? Who played well? Who didn’t? Did Wenger get his tactics right? Etc. etc. etc.
But that’s not what we get from ‘them’. They’re on a whole different level. They have no ‘limiters’. A defeat and they launch. A draw, as often as not, is enough to send them into a hissy fit. And going by what some of the braver lads who visit ‘them’ in there natural habitat say, even a WIN isn’t often good enough to placate ‘them’.
I really wish they had disappeared forever, but mark my words anything short of a resounding victory at Southampton will be enough to bring them out in there droves again.
@ Jambug -December 23, 2015 at 3:39 pm – We all take time off on and off , probably due to pressing other commitments . Every defeat rankles , every draw pisses me to a certain degree and goals conceded do hurt .
But never as it used to . No more rants or hitting the bottle or kicking the cat ! We all try in our own way to make sense of it all and probably like most , say tomorrow it will be better and we will get up and improve.
I do enjoy the way you and the rest break it down and simplify by your arguments .I leave the heavy hitting to you guys , and truly enjoy your input.
I just attack the morons who come on here and sprout stupidity with their repeated ‘opinions’ . And I use humour to try and defuse the absurdity .
Do I care about their well or ill well being ? Nah ! Often I skip their comments , even if it was directed to me . And ignoring ‘them ‘ is very much like this joke –
Them Under The Bed –
Jimmy went to a psychiatrist. “Doc,” he said, “I’ve got trouble. Every time I get into bed, I think there’s somebody under it. I’m going crazy!”
“Just put yourself in my hands for one year,” said the shrink. “Come to me three times a week, and I’ll cure your fears.”
How much do you charge?”
“A hundred dollars per visit.”
I’ll sleep on it,” said Jimmy.
Six months later the doctor met Jimmy on the street.
“Why didn’t you ever come to see me again?” asked the psychiatrist.
“For a hundred bucks a visit? A bartender cured me for $10.”
“Is that so! How?”
“He told me to cut the legs off the bed! Ain’t nobody under there now!!!
Just read a sad bit of news. Don Howe a great manager / coach with Arsenal has died. He was a great defensive coach & gave us a lot of pleasure during his years at Arsenal. Our deepest sympathy to his family & all Arsenal fans & players.
Don Howe was our coach for thirty years. His style of play was only changed by Wenger in 1997.I just hope we continue in “Wenger style” for many years to come.
More numbers
Same program, different set of numbers to http://untold-arsenal.com/archives/48907#comment-864061
As Hamming said, the object of computing is insight, not numbers.
Many assume the distribution of goals follows a Poisson distribution (the mean equals the variance and the instantaneous probability of scoring is independent of time). The second condition is almost true, but isn’t true for the last few minutes of a game and possibly the end of the first half as well.
As before, 0-0 is the most common scoreline. And a 1-0 win for the higher scoring team (1.2) is slightly more common than 1-0 to the lower scoring team (1.1). Across the 40 seasons of 20 games, the higher scoring team won slightly more games, and seen slightly higher extreme scores. Ties (over a season) were not as common as the last time. The higher scoring team had an extreme (positive) goal difference as big as +31 in a winning season, and as low as -5. The lower scoring team had an extreme goal difference as big as +12 in a winning season, and as small as -8.
There was a tendency for the higher scoring team to go on a run slightly more often than for the lower scoring team. The longest run of wins was 5 games (twice). There were a couple of occasions when a run of 5 ties occurred.
@Mick
We don’t have to call them anything. They’re Arsenal fans with different views to you and I. Name calling is pretty silly really. We’re all old enough to know better.
I do not go on Twitter as much as I used to but I was wondering where Dim Payton of the AST and the jolly nice fellows of the BSM have gone. Are they still about or have I just missed placed them somewhere in my Twitter world?
More numbers (again)
One thing that Wenger looks for is consistency. In this run, I am comparing a negative binomial distribution with a mean of 1.1, to a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1.1 (the same). The difference? The variance of the negative binomial is slightly larger.
The 0-0 scoreline is about the same as the 0-1 scoreline (the Poisson winning). The negative binomial 1-0 scoreline is about 1/2 that much. The Poisson score maxes out at 5 in a game, the negative binomial occasionally gets as high as 10.
Ties over a season hardly happen at all. The Poisson team wins about twice as many seasons as the negative binomial team..
Isolated wins and tie games are all about equally likely, and moving to two in a row. Well, except that maybe two wins in a row for Poisson is slightly more likely. The surprising thing is that the run length for wins by the Poisson team extends to quite long runs (8).
Is this correct? Okay, run again except for 4000 seasons (and generate 60,000+ lines of output to wade through).
Uggh, what a pile of data! Too much to analyse exactly the same as earlier. This is 4000 seasons of 20 games beteen 2 teams that on average score the same number of goals per game. The only difference is that team 1 has a slightly higher variance (because it is drawn from a negative binomial distribution).
There were 357 seasons which had the 2 teams tied on points, with the goal difference ranging from 6 (for the Poisson team) to 19 (for the negative binomial team).
There were 1021 seasons which had the negative binomial team win the season, with a goal difference ranging from the Poisson team having 6 more goals to the negative binomial team having 33 more goals.
There were 2622 seasons which had the Poisson team win the season, with a goal difference ranging from 27 for the Poisson team to 20 for the negative binomial team.
The score 0-0 occurred 12622 times, and was not the most common. The most common scoreline is 0-1 (Poisson team wins) at 14015. These 2 counts appear to be significantly different. The 1-0 scoreline (negative binomial wins) occurred about half as often (6633 times). Scores of 0-2 (Poisson wins) and 1-1 seem to be more likely than the 1-0 scoreline. Highest score racked up by the negative binomial team was 21, and by Poisson was 7.
Runs.
There were 11521 single, isolated draws and 3320 pairs of consecutive draws. The maximum length of run observed was 8 draws, and there were 2 of those.
There were about 11500 single, isolated wins; which is about the same as single, isolated draws. And those 3 situations account for about 38% or so of the games played over the 4000 seasons.
Where we have consecutive wins, the distribution is different for the two teams. The negative binomial team (higher variance) had at most 9 wins in a row (almost half a season. The Poisson team had runs up to 11 games observed. The skew isn’t that pronounced, but it seems to be significant.
The more inconsistent team will over the long run show more high scoring games and higher scores in a high scoring game. The more consistent team will win more games over a season, and have longer runs of winning.
Numbers and Consistency
Well, if the lower variance of the Poisson distribution compared to a negative binomial distribution _with the same average value_ shows that a team can win more games in a season, is this universally true?
The tighter tolerances are, typically the more expensive things are. The Poisson only comes in a one size fits all manner, once you specify the average the variance is fixed. The negative binomial is more adjustable, but for a given average value always has more variance than a similar Poisson. It turns out the (ordinary) binomial distribution, which is also adjustable, always has a smaller variance than a similar Poisson distribution.
So, I looked at a run comparing a Poisson to a binomial. 40 seasons of 20 games between the two teams.
The lower variance of the binomial distribution really puts a clamp on the maximum number of goals one can observe. I didn’t see any game having more than 3 goals in that 800 games observed. This may not be realistic.
The Poisson team won slightly more games, might not be statistically significant. The most common score was 1-1, probably double the 0-0 scoreline. Both 0-1 and 1-0 appear to be more likely than 0-0.
Runs of draws of more than 3 games are rare. Runs of wins of more than 4 games are rare. The Poisson team seems able to string together slightly longer runs than the binomial team, probably in large part because the binomial team has difficulty scoring more than 3 goals.
These 3 or 4 comments on numbers leave a bit of room for interpretation. Wenger looks for consistency, and their appears to be good reasons to do so. One should not assume that more consistency is always better, as too much consistency in scoring can be a detriment. Sort of like having a striker that can only score from one position on the pitch; too easy to block that one shooting location.