20 responses

  1. KP
    05/11/2009

    Some Kroenke info – and any city-types please feel free to correct me.

    The crucial 30% threshold is breached at 18,666 shares so if Stan gets another 72 shares (at the most recent price £8,500, total £612,000) he’s there.

    However! If this happens he’s required to bid for the remaining shares at the highest price paid in the previous 12 months, £10,500, which he paid on 1st May 2009. If he hits 30% before 2nd May 2010 he’ll have to pay another £457,306,500 – total additional spend £457,918,500. Since then he’s paid no more than £8,500. If he waits till 2nd May 2010 then he’ll save himself £2,000 per share and have to find “only” £372,512,500.

    As Tony says, if Stan has to borrow to do it, with the intention of doing what the Glaziers and Hicks/Gillette have done to Manure and Liverpuddle by dumping the debt on the club he’ll have a lot of trouble borrowing the money. Using the stadium as collateral when it’s already on a ~£250M mortage is tricky to say the least.

    What Stan’s recent moves are more likely to mean in the short term is a further stumbling block for Usmanov/Red & White. The recent activity makes it incredibly difficult for Usmanov to get to 30% himself but unless he pulls off a coup such as buying out Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith’s 15.9%, the moment he shows any sign of getting near to 30% Stan can approach his fellow directors and/or a handful of small shareholders to buy just a handful of shares and pre-empt Usmanov as the preferred buyer but even if either Stan Kroenke or Usmanov does make a bid it doesn’t mean the bid will be successful.

  2. CASTANO
    05/11/2009

    im castano from Nigeria.very solid article tony…i promise to read all untold arsenal articles from now on.it seems though usmanov has conceeded deafeat.plus i have a bad feeling about the way kroenke keeps doing things and not opening up

  3. diceman1984
    05/11/2009

    Another great piece Tony.

    And I kinda agree with KP. It looks very strange for a man to want to reach that 30% mark in this kind of situation. So I do think it’s a block of some sort towards the Uz.

    But no one can know his intentions but himself. Keep them coming thoug Tony, we don’t find many stuff like this on normal “channels”.

  4. walter
    05/11/2009

    I just read an article on the site “young guns” and it did make me feel a bit assured.
    I really think, or is it hope, that Kroenke indeed does not want to take Arsenal over for now. And that the buying chares is just to block Usmanov.
    I really hope from the bottom of my heart that Arsenal wil remain the Arsenal as we know it for some 100 years now and for the next 100 years

  5. LRV
    05/11/2009

    I don’t mind what games they choose to play within the board as long as it does not end up with any one owner of Arsenal. The club is fine as it is should remain so.

  6. LRV
    05/11/2009

    I don’t mind what games they choose to play within the board as long as it does not end up with any one owner of Arsenal. The club is fine as it is should remain so.

  7. walter
    05/11/2009

    The other teams mentioned in your exellent article… well they just can go bust.
    Good comment KP, the only blog out there where the comment section is from the same high quality as most of the articles.
    This is why I became an “Untold addict”

  8. Paul C.
    05/11/2009

    I also read the Arsenal Youth piece on Kroenke and can also comment on a North Americam perspective on this (I now live in Canada). Stan Kroenke is viewed as a “model” sports owner here in North America. He is considered a forward-thinking, progressive and ambitious owner who gets good people into management positions and allows them to do their job, with the ultimate goal of improving the net worth of the franchise (through a combination of success on the field and improvements in PR/Marketing). European Football is seen as something of a cash cow for North American Owners becasue the lack of salary caps and luxury taxes allows clubs to be as big and successful as their revenue base allows them to be. Kroenke WILL NOT invest his own money into Arsenal for players etc., instead he will look to increase the revenue of the club in order to produce more money organically to spend on wages/players.

    As others have noted, even if Kroenke goes beyond 29.99% and has to make a bid for the club, there is no guarantee that other shareholders will accept his bid. In reality there are only two other shareholders of any relevance in this whole story – Usmanov and Bracewell-Smith. I am sure Kreonke has no intention on getting his hands on Fizman’s remaining shares for instance. The way Kroenke has been sweeping up loose shares of small shareholders suggests that the club is indeed trying to force some kind of end-game scenario from Usmanov and to force Bracewell-Smith to make a decision which side of the fence she wants to call home. In this the support of Arsene Wenger towards Kroenke would appear to be crucial.

    I also agree with others that there would appear to be ZERO chance of Kroenke loading the club with debt given the experience of Utd and Liverpool in that respect. The Board have seen the negative publicity generated around those clubs by that decision and would surely be mad to go such a route.

  9. walter
    05/11/2009

    Thanks Paul C, so it looks like we have the good, and the bad and ugly at our club. The last in one person. 😉
    I also have tried to find out more about Kroenke today and he really looks like a serious and honourable businesman. So it wouldn’t spell disaster if he takes over. But then again really would love to see the status quo from now on. And I don’t mean the band.

  10. walter
    05/11/2009

    About that planning permission that the Spuds got, does anyone now if such a permission expires ?
    This is question I ask from my own professional background as in Belgium you have to start the works within 2 years and if not the permission expires. Just a bit curious. I know the laws over here but I already heard some strange things about the laws in the UK.

  11. Finsbury
    05/11/2009

    It depends upon the council and the type of planning permission granted (residential, retail etc…) but the standard planning award in the UK is valid for 5 years.
    It’s a complex and muddy bog, grubby fingers & stained envelopes usually help. There were bribes offered to Islington Council by AFC in the form of developments for the local borough to help win planning, some would say not enough. In Arsenal’s case getting the award took almost longer then the stadium did to build. Which probably helped with the project management, it wasn’t rushed in the end and the project kept to budget.
    But in these halcyon days of neo-Thatcherite corporatism, the efficiency of the planning process here depends upon the mood of the short-term contract-less antipodean travellers one encounters in the local planning departments. And whether they’ll still be there in six months time.

  12. dave hall
    05/11/2009

    As I understand it if Stan increases his stake beyond the 30% threshold and other major shareholders (Red & White, Lady Nina & Danny F) state they would not sell at the bid price the Takeover Panel could well issue a waiver. He would not then be required to bid for the remaining shares.

  13. Marc
    05/11/2009

    Nice piece Tony we’ve all been reading your thoughts and commenting about the perilous financial state of much of football for quite a while now. I recently started a new job, the guys in the office are a nice bunch but they still think that ManU can go out in Jan and spend £30 million and we just don’t have the money. When I pointed out the level of ManU’s debt the response was well they can afford it. The fact that the last set of Arsenal account showed the highest ever turnover by a British football club is not only ignored but unknown to them. This will all carry on till a major club goes to the wall which as long as Liverpool keep Benitez in charge will be Liverpool. The problem is if a sugerdaddy comes along and saves them instead of thinking never again the crys for even more spending will get louder.

  14. walter
    05/11/2009

    Thank you Finsbury for your explanation. So it gives them a while to start building. If they ever start. I really think it is like the Liverpool thing. Planning but not building.

  15. gerald
    05/11/2009

    sorry to interrupt the serious financial business going on here but i think i have to propose a law prohibiting blogging unless one has something to say. I have just read from someone who calls themselves an arsenal fan that they are concerned that language barrier is causing/ will cause poor performance on the pitch. Something about 2nd language not being able to communicate the passion of the message. and the guy seems to think he has found the reason whe we have not won trophies for a while. PLEASE!

  16. eduardo
    05/11/2009

    If Kroenke or Usmanov go over the 30% they are required to bid for all reamining shares but no shareholder is obliged to sell, at any price, but he has to as pointed out by others offer the highest price paid by him in the last 12 months. So even if Usmanov got LAdy Nina shares or if Kroenke got Danny Fizsman shares, as long at the other two turn down the offer then no one can buy out the club. Mainly cos the AST shareholders have around 11% and they are totally opposed to selling, in fact they are trying to get lady Nina to either give her shares to them or join or at least side with them and so a combined holding by them of over 25% would mean they would never have to sell even if someone got the other 75% of shares, and this large block of shares opposing a single owner would mean banks and the like would not loan money for a takeover.

    This scenario also applies to anyone getting 51% or more of the shares, they would have controlling rights but as long as a large block refuse to sell it would make it almost impossible for debt to be put on to the club from whoever buys the shares. Only when someone gets around 85% of shares can they force the buying of all shares and only then can the put debt incurred buying the shares onto the club.
    So we can only hope Kroenke is buying shares to make it harder for Usmanov to buy Arsenal, or that Lady Nina, Usmanov, and AST refuse to sell and so block Kroenke to get total control of Arsenal, as I said if Lady Nina joins forces with AST I believe they would have enough shares to make sure no individual could ever get Arsenal 100%.

  17. walter
    05/11/2009

    Thank you Eduardo for your comment. So live looks rather good for Arsenal.
    Visited the AST site and looks good and hope what you want happens. Just one remark upon the AST site : you can’t find a link to the Untold Arsenal ? My only dissapointment. 😉

  18. Pete the First
    06/11/2009

    Can we trust Kroenke? Time will tell.

    Spurs and the Lewis/Levy clan will not be able to afford this new ground project. They are trying to flog the set up. With the potential of a new stadium it sounds like a more attractive proposition to a prospective buyer. Let’s watch the next few years slip by with no building action on Tottenham High Road. Dream dream dream…..

  19. Ithaca Gooner
    06/11/2009

    Firstly, a brilliant article Tony! This is my first post to this site. I’ve back read many of the articles. They are honest, state the facts and most of all ooze unflinching support & love for the club! That does like a breath of fresh air when compared to many of the blogs! Go Gooners!

  20. walter
    06/11/2009

    As not living in London this is just a hypothesis.
    Imagine your a spuds fan (is this asking to much ? ) and you see your rivals having a great team and a majestic new stadium. I can imagine that you would look at that with envy.
    So I could imagine that a lot of those spuds fans (stop imagining being a spuds fan now, I dont want to torture you) moan about our stadium and put pressure on their board to give them something new to dream about.
    even in my country when this new stadium was mentionned in the press someone came out of the sewer and told that Spurs would the the biggest club on earth with that stadium or something like that anyway. Haven’t heard of him since saturday anymore.
    So my hypothesis is that it is just to give the spuds fans the impression that the board is working on something.

    Well we don’t have to dream about new stadiums, we have it already.

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