This is Arsenal’s worst position for over a quarter of a century.

3 Replies to “This is Arsenal’s worst position for over a quarter of a century.”

1. When I look back I don’t compare results only with circumstances that have happened . Man Utd were managed by one man for over twenty years the same as us and since losing them both clubs have struggled .
   Man Utd are now on their forth manager and more than likely changed all the back room staff each time , stability and consistency within the club disappears .
   Every new manager has there own ideas of how they want the club to progress which is hopefully is agreed upon appointment , a time structure to get to where they need to be , players and money , it’s then how they are judged .
   Unfortunately I couldn’t see a path or plan nor could others with what Mr Emery was trying to achieve , after the first year things went backwards , had trouble scoring goals and couldn’t keep them out .
   So from low expectations after Mr Emery , Mikel Arteta won a FA Cup and tightened our defence within 8 months along with contending with a pandemic .
   The start of the next season started with great expectations only for MA and the team to lose their way , but as we know he was given time to get out of a bad 2 months and as we can see now we are slowly progressing to be a great club again .
   So after a long time of stability and consistency is it inevitable you get worse before getting better .

2. This is an interesting piece, but there are three things the methodology should account for but does not.

   First, ‘average’ is not a valid measure, what should really be calculated it the mean position, because that adjusts for aberrant seasons like the last two, and gives more weight to more frequent positions, which were further up the table.

   Second, the team position is only a valid measure at 19 games and 38, because it is only at that point that all the teams have played similar opponents the same number of times. At nineteen games, teams havep layed every other opponent, regardless of league position, once. It is not exactly the same because home/and away can be a factor, but the halfway point is usually relatively accurate predictor of final league position. At 38 games, everyone has played everyone else twice; home and away, the true measure of relative quality.

   For example, Aston Villa is being lauded for their fine performance, and for a team just up, they have done well; but the position in the table is not reflective of where they will finish because nearly all of their remaining fixtures are against team above them in the table; likely losses or draws, as opposed to teams lower in the table, which are likely draws or wins.

   Finally, points and points from the top are not valid measure of relative quality of performance of a single team (Arsenal in this case) year to year for two reasons; first, teams vary year to year; all of them. Last season Liverpool had an unusual season and ran away with the league. Man City did something similar the year before – Arsenal’s points and points form the top were artificially inflated (as were all other teams by comparison). Similarly total points is a function of the relative strength of the entire league. One or two very high-performing teams or on e or two very low performing teams can skew the point totals of every other team. League position at the midpoint and end points of the season, however, takes those variables into account and the measure is the relative quality of each team against each other team.

   Arsenal have two games remaining against teams they are, statistically, likely to lose to, and seven likely wins. Based on an analysis of every other team in the top 10, Arsenal are most likely to finish 8th, with 7th a very real possibility. Higher than that would require an extraordinary series of performances by the Gunners (something this team has not shown the ability to do) and a collapse of not one or two, but three teams that have, thus far, outperformed Arsenal. That seems unlikely.

   On the bright side, Arsenal are likely claw their way above Tottenham. With luck, the Gunners may top Everton to finish seventh.

   There is also a very real chance that Arsenal, thanks to a series of beneficial draws (Man U. v. Inter Milan and their own draw against Salvia Prague, and Ajax v. Roma)in the Europa League, have a better than the odds suggest chance to win the Europa League and sneak into the Champions League that way.

   The questions is – does this make for “progress” for a team that was so furious with twenty years of top four finishes and Champions League football that they fired their manager after two seasons finishing 5th and 6th?

3. Being mean about average is not fair!
   However there are several aspects of the game that impact results, particularly the officiating on field and through VAR, both controlled remotely without transparency. The football teams that we play against are neither the issue nor the cause, the officiating team and the media team are.
   When Arsenal have to defend by interceptions only in non contact fashion, there is an obvious unfairness there. This is due to the consistent issue of cards to Arsenal players for ‘touches’ to opponents. The substancial fines by the FA and others for uttering the truth. There are several instances of VAR being invisible or completely wrong that have not been addressed by the ‘powers that be’ or the media.
   Until the FA are replaced by a democratically elected board and the appointment of officiating is transparent and have to report to a responsible authority, football will remain corrupt.