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June 2021
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Arsenal v WBA. “It’s Arsenal so it must be a yellow” – the statistical proof.

By Bulldog Drummond

Recently…

———-

Now I know (because Untold has been running the story in the face of denials on all fronts and endlessly checking the stats) that the home/away difference is reversed this year because of the way referees oversee games (see the set of articles under the heading “The proof that something is seriously wrong with football refereeing” on the home page – just scroll down a little way).

These figures don’t mean we can’t win this one, but they do show just how far we have slipped at home this season.

The last eight games in both competitions have given us three wins, three draws and two defeats, which is not particularly exciting, scoring 12 goals conceding five, yet again showing what the media completely fail to understand: that our defence is doing ok.

Our last five home results however only show two wins, and of course we need to get that sorted.

Date Match Res Score Competition
14 Feb 2021 Arsenal v Leeds United W 4-2 Premier League
21 Feb 2021 Arsenal v Manchester City L 0-1 Premier League
14 Mar 2021 Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur W 2-1 Premier League
18 Apr 2021 Arsenal v Fulham D 1-1 Premier League
23 Apr 2021 Arsenal v Everton L 0-1 Premier League

As for the larger Sam at West Bromwich we can see a little bit of a meandering at season’s end.  They are going down, we know it, they know, but the media keep pretending…

Date Match Res Score Competition
20 Feb 2021 Burnley v West Bromwich D 0-0 Premier League
13 Mar 2021 Crystal Palace v West Bromwich L 1-0 Premier League
03 Apr 2021 Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion W 2-5 Premier League
22 Apr 2021 Leicester City v West Bromwich L 3-0 Premier League
25 Apr 2021 Aston Villa v West Bromwich Albion D 2-2 Premier League

So two wins, two defeats and one draw for us at home, one win two draws and two defeats away for them.   Including a 2-5 win at Chelsea – which must make everyone pause.

That 2-5 win came in a game when Chelsea went down to ten men, and WBA threw everything at them, in the manner of a Large Sam side.   After the game the WBA manager said,  “It has been coming for a while, but our lack of finishing has cost us. What we saw today is what we have been missing. The quality of our goals and our football brought us a fantastic result. We were desperate for it.”

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But of course, desperate or not, it didn’t stay – they lost the next game away 3-0.

As for the injury list, we are doing ok, down to two…  Figures as ever from the excellent Physioroom.com

Player Reason Further Detail Potential Return Condition Status
David Luiz Moreira Marinho Thigh Injury May 05: “No [there is no update]. He was feeling better yesterday. Let’s see how he is today. We don’t know the extent of the injury yet.” 09/05/2021 Late Fitness Test 25%
Granit Xhaka Other Muscular Tightness No Return Date Currently Being Assessed 25%

West Brom are only slightly worse off, one man out being because they can’t play Ainsley M-N against us…

Player Reason Further Detail Potential Return Condition Status
Branislav Ivanovic Thigh Injury Apr 08: “Branislav will be out for a long time, we think. We will have to assess it week-by-week, but certainly at the moment it looks like it’s going to be a long period.” No Return Date None Ruled Out
Robert Snodgrass Lower Back Injury May 07: ‘Sam Allardyce expects Snodgrass to miss the Baggies’ final four games of the season with a back injury. The winger is set to undergo an operation to rectify the issue.’ No Return Date None Ruled Out

Liverpool and Newcastle are currently top of the injury league with six each.

One more table to complete for today’s preview, the tackles, fouls and yellow card list.

Tackles Fouls Yellow Tackle/foul Foul/Yellow
Arsenal 409 315 44 1.30 7.16
WBA 522 368 46 1.42 8.00

Our 409 tackles remains at the lowest level, and our 315 fouls is also the lowest – so the policy of cutting the tackles has really worked.

West Brom on 522 are mid-table for tackles.  And immediately we can see that despite the fact that they have put in 113 more tackles than we have they have only two more yellow cards!!!!

To put it bluntly they can tackle more before the ref calls a foul, and they can commit more fouls before the ref calls a yellow.

In effect although reducing our tackling level has brought down our fouls, the yellow cards rate just won’t come down.  Is that a policy by PGMO or just referees being in the habit of thinking “It’s Arsenal, so that must be a yellow”

Without any input from PGMO it is impossible to know, but as the season ends we can see that despite Arsenal adjusting to the outright bias of the referees, they are simply carrying on penalising Arsenal – although our players’ actions are helping keep this under control.

More tomorrow.

The videos

Premier League referees

In the past they said they were 98% accurate.  Now they admit it was only 85% accuracy.  So how can we ever believe anything they say again?

1 comment to Arsenal v WBA. “It’s Arsenal so it must be a yellow” – the statistical proof.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    I think and want to believe my thinking that is telling me that Arsenal hopes of playing European football next season courtesy of the Premier League top-six or top-seven place finish this season are not yet over.

    But their hopes could start getting lost if the Gunners fail to beat the Baggies at the Emirates Stadium tomorrow in the Premier League match encounter that will be played between the duo club sides.

    Chelsea 2 WBA 5. Is a PL away win to WBA against the current top-four club side Chelsea a couple of few days back that should serve as a warning to the Gunners not to take their beating the Baggies in the match tomorrow for granted. For, to be warned is to be forearm. Therefore, the should not say they are not forewarned.

    For, the Baggies who are already on their way down to the Championship, are now playing damaging football against any PL top-six club sides. This is coming from them after knowing that they have nothing to play for to not lose in the PL anymore. And as a result of this are now playing with absolute enthusiastic freedom with no tension whatsoever in their minds other than the delight they want to see they have in themselves when they hurt big teams.

    The Gunners should therefore get themselves prepared absolutely very well to make sure they take good care of the Baggies by giving them a sound beating in the game. Say, something like 4-0 home win to Arsenal. Which if the Gunners achieve this heavy home win result will increase their goals difference in the table significantly. The PL top-six or top-seven place finish this season could boil down to which team has the better goal difference.

    And primarily, the Gunners should in their training sessions in preparing to host the Baggies perfect their arts in goals scoring getting. So that they can avoid falling into the trap of profligatimg in front of the Baggies’ goalmouth tomorrow. But they should sharpen their goals scoring getting razor sharpened to convert all the goals scoring chances they have in the game into goals for Arsenal. But not concede any in the game to the Baggies.

    And more importantly, if need be for the Gunners during the playing of the match, they should put into use in the game their anti-PGMO referees antidote that neutralises the PGMO referees anti-Arsenal match refereeing in the PL. So that they will stop the PGMO match officiating officials in the match including those manning the VAR from stopping Arsenal to win the match.

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