The value of Arsenal’s players is not what you think. Or at least not what we thought.

By Tony Attwood

OK, I admit it.  I know nothing about football.

When it was announced that the Football Observatory was publishing a new list of the 100 most valuable footballers according to their own special unique super-wonderful way of evaluating players my pal and I decided to test our knowledge of football.

The game we played was this: to work out the top five players in the Arsenal squad in terms of their value on the open market today without first looking at the Observatory results.

We talked about age, ability, difficulty of finding players in that position, likelihood of getting injured, etc etc and started out by putting the players in the order of value before actually giving values to them.

OK, everyone was going to put Alexis and Ozil in the top two.  But what else?

I made a case of Iwobi being one of the most valuable in Arsenal’s team because of his amazing talent, the speed at which he has come through, his youth and the variety of positions he seems to be able to play.

My pal made the case for Koscielny, so solid, dependable, no fuss, not making fouls.

So there we are, we argued a bit and come up with our lists, which didn’t look at all like the Observatory’s list which ran like this (I’ve just added the commonly asserted cost of the players in each case).

  1. Alexis: 76.3m euros – cost: 36.13m euros
  2. Bellerin: 70.3m euros – cost: Nothing
  3. Mustafi: 60.5m euros – cost: 39.9m euros
  4. Ozil: 47.6m euros – cost: 47.88m euros
  5. Xhaka: 46m euros – cost: 34.2 euros

We didn’t have Xhaka in either list, and Mustafi turned up on one of the lists.  As for Bellerin, yes he got one mention too, but our second most valuable player?  No, we didn’t see that.

What is quite extraordinary is just how much profit is seemingly being made on these players.  If they were to be sold at the prices quoted at the moment the profits would be…

  • Alexis: 40.17m Euros
  • Bellerin: 70.3m Euros
  • Mustafi: 20.6m Euros
  • Xhaka: 18.2m Euros

Of course I don’t want any of these players being sold, but given that Mr Wenger is endlessly portrayed as a man who is completely incapable of undertaking any sort of transfer deal properly, who buys the wrong players and dithers around and so fails to complete deals that should have been simple, it does seem strange.

Here is a man who knows nothing about transfers compared with the guys who write the bloggettas, and yet if these members of his squad were sold the club would get all their money back and make a profit of approaching 150m euros.

It is also interesting to look at Bellerin’s value and consider some of the comments made about the player after his first match against Borussia Dortmund.  Not the comments that said he was young and had a lot to learn, but the ones that said there was no way he would ever be good enough, and suggested selling him now before he soaked up anything more in Arsenal wages.

Anyway, there it is.  The conclusion was that either the Observatory have got it totally wrong or it was rather fortunate that we were not in charge of Arsenal’s transfer policy.

Possibly both.

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15 Replies to “The value of Arsenal’s players is not what you think. Or at least not what we thought.”

  1. Good to see my “discovery” is worth that much already. Best right back in the world I said 2 years ago. He is and will be for the next 10 years.

  2. Cohen Bramall played 83 minutes of the U23 match tonight. We won by 3-1. Goals from Mavididi, Nketiah and Chris Willock in the second half were enough to cancel out a first half strike from Southampton’s Afalobi.

  3. Being as pacy as he is as wing back for Arsenal, I have a doubt in my mind if Bellerin is put on the transfer market today by Arsenal, any of the super 9 clubs in Europe will submit a bid up to the transfer valuation of the €70.3m being placed on him as stated above. But a Chinese super Liga club could pay up to that or even more to Arsenal to sign him. Alexis at €76.3m transfer valuation is okay going by the current European transfer market valuations. But if it’s in the Chinese transfer market, I think they’ll pay far more than that amount to Arsenal to get him. Let’s remember he has reportedly been offered a £400k/week by an unnamed Chinese super Liga club. And I think Ozil the assist master should worth more than the €47.6m slated on his head as what he’s current worth in the market. A slated amount that is less by €0.74m of the transfer sum Arsenal paid to Read Madrid to get him in 2013 summer window. I think both Ozil and Sanchez should have at least €120m written as their release clauses into their contract deals by Arsenal after the two have extend their deals at Arsenal as being expected they’ll do soon. Because I can’t see any of the 9 super clubs in Europe paying less than €100m for any of them now to sign of the two players during this current January window if Arsenal are to sell any of them. The duo are very costly players to buy.

    By the way, I think the 9 Europe’s super clubs as listed by Uefa are: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, PSG, Jeventus and Tottenham HS if I can still remember correctly. But why is Liverpool the 18 times winners of the old first division title and 5 times winners of the European Cup not listed as the 10th super club in Europe? And when Liverpool dramatically beat AC Milan to win the last European Cup or UCL Cup, was the competition called at that time as UCL or EC? How many times has Liverpool won the UCL? Thanks.

  4. I would’ve loved to correct some mistakes I’ve noticed in my last comment posting. But on this my Nokia C3 browser that am using it’s not possible for me to do that. If it was my Android phone that I used it would have been possible for me to do the corrections I wanted to do. Once I’ve posted my comment on my C3 browser, my comment doesn’t stay on the site as it does on my Android to give me the chance to do correction if I want to before I log out.

  5. Sorry for myself for my bla bla bla. I’ve decided to google, and when I did, I found out that Liverpool are among the five English clubs of: Man U, Man C, Arsenal, Chelsea and the Liverpool listed by Uefa in their list of 9 clubs in Europe they’ve classified as the super clubs of the European football Leagues. Tottenham Hotspur is not listed in the list as I erroneously thought they are. I think Spurs is a club in England that are not a super club in Europe but a big one in England. Is that the reason why the UA have been calling them the tiny totts? If so, I can now understand.

    And I’ve also found out that Liverpool have actually won the UCL five times and not the European Cup the EC I thought is the trophy they’ve won five times or so. Liverpool have even reached the finals of both the EC & the UCL many times without been fortunate to win the trophy in those finals. And they at one time got a 6 years ban from participating in the competition by Uefa for their fans rioting at a final. I also found out that four English clubs of: Liverpool, Man Utd, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa have all won the EC or UCL many time and in the case of Aston Villa once, in their history. And Arsenal have reached the final of the competition once but lost to Barcelona. I already know that. But Arsenal should compensate us their supporters for that their 2006 lost to Barcelona in the final to lift the trophy this season so as to truly become one of the super nine football clubs in Europe. Because all the super clubs in England save Arsenal and Man City have all won the UCL in their histories. To not win the UCL is like one being called a professor without a Doctorate degree. Therefore, Arsenal must win both the PL and the UCL titles this season to truly become one of the 9 elite super clubs of Europe and not just be one of them for their super financial power.

  6. I read a few reports on Bramall, they seemed pretty positive to me. He likely hasn’t played in that kind of a game before (all the players being his age). Or rather, not recently.

    It sounds like he made a few mistakes. Which if any aaa were watching, means they will be getting on his case soon.

    And then there was a single story about Crystal Palace and Fat Sam again. I hope that story isn’t true.

  7. ‘Good to see my “discovery” is worth that much already. Best right back in the world I said 2 years ago. He is and will be for the next 10 years.’

    I don’t suppose you could provide a link to your original assessment of Ballerin please?

  8. UEFA has released their annual report on financial health of football entities across Europe and according to recent financial details Manchester United is not only the club with highest yearly revenue but also has the highest net debt. The interesting fact that even with the highest revenue United has failed to reduce their net debt which stands at €536 million and thats around 25% increase compared to last fiscal year. We take a look at clubs with highest net debt across Europe.

    *the following numbers are based on FIFA’s financial play debt definition. Which exclude many factors but mainly focus on “bank overdrafts and loans, other loans and accounts payable to related parties less cash and cash equivalents” and “net player transfer balance

    10 Most Debt Ridden Football Clubs – 2017 NO.# CLUB NET DEBT (numbers converted to dollar)

    1 Manchester United $570 million (risen by 18% largely down to brexit as US dollar strengthend to GBP. However club remain in excellent financial condition with $657 in yearly revenue
    2 SL Benfica $351 million (Benfica’s finances has been mismanaged for best part of last decade and club is trying hard to get out of massive debt they owe to local portugese banks)
    3 Inter Milan $325 million (in worst possible financial situation and things not looking bright with inter posting another $78 million net loss in 2016.
    4 Valencia $303 million
    5 FC Barcelona $298 million (has managed to reduce their net debt from from $340m to $298m thanks to record revenue of $713m generated in 2015-16 season
    6 QPR $297 million (most of the debt is owed to club’s owners ($158m owed to Asia Sdn Bhd owned by Fernandes, another $40m to Mittal family etc)
    7 AC Milan $265 million (in 2016 club sold for around $826 million to chinese company including the debt. Goldman Sachs to intervene in clubs debt restructuring)
    8 Chelsea* technically debt free but Roman Abramovich’s $1 billion investment counts if he decides to sell the club.
    9 CSKA Moscow $238 million
    10 Galatasaray $236 million
    11 Real Madrid $250 million (Madrid has much more debt than just $250m. But only this amount falls into FIFA fair-play regulations.)
    12 Juventus $222 million
    13 AS Roma $221 million
    14 Sunderland $221 million
    15 PSG $198 million
    16 Fenerbache $176 million
    17 Dinamo Moskva $174 million
    18 Atletico Madrid $174 million
    19 Liverpool $174 million
    20 Olympic Lyon $169 million
    21 AS Monaco $157 million
    22 FC Kopenhavn $146 million
    23 FC Schalke $145 million

    United sold 25% and hold 25% is debt, so United is worth a measely…….. 😀 What are paying for, to go elite and then have no debt, whilst strengthening.

    Lvy approx net spend in last 5 years £1m, shrewd is an understatement, Chelsea or Spurs to rent Wembley first…. Hmmmm…. auction by Brent Council…… Lets not go into Brent Council right now!

  9. Alexis
    Giroud *
    Oxlade Chamberlain
    Carzorla **
    Welbeck *
    Walcott **
    Monreal **
    Elneny *
    Mertersacher *
    Jenkinon *
    Reine Adelaide

    in order based on contract, age, ability, experience, potential, demand/supply

    next out of the academy

    C Wilock
    Maitland Niles

    I am not even going to put Sanogo or Dbouchey on the list. KEY: players with a * dispensable to the first team., those with 2 stars are ones I question in terms of our next objectives, not solely for attitude. We are a business.

  10. Do the math, everyone else here is in debt, ours is set against income from Arsenal Holdings development of Highbury, it produces around a /13 more money than the development of Emirtes, which is also offset by the naming rights, which may be extended. If we are talking stability, then we are talking ARSENAL, vs Bayern and we are in the #1 league, with new TV Rights deals again on the orizon. 13 years in the making, patience is a virtue.

    Deloitte Money League Table 2015-16 season – the top 10
    Teams (positions last season) Revenue in €m (£m in brackets) 2015-16 Revenue 2014-15
    1 (3) Manchester United 689 (515.3) 519.5 (395.2)
    2 (2) Barcelona 620.2 (463.8) 560.8 (426.6)
    3 (1) Real Madrid 620.1 (463.8) 577 (439)
    4 (5) Bayern Munich 592 (442.7) 474 (360.6)
    5 (6) Manchester City 524.9 (392.6) 463.5 (352.6)
    6 (4) Paris St-Germain 520.9 (389.6) 480.8 (365.8)
    7 (7) Arsenal 468.5 (350.4) 435.5 (331.3)
    8 (8) Chelsea 447.4 (334.6) 420 (319.5)
    9 (9) Liverpool 403.8 (302) 391.8 (298.1)
    10 (10) Juventus 341.1 (255.1) 323.9 (246.4)

  11. I forgot recent form fitness was considered and Xhaka should be above Aaron. Cut & Paste mishap! Editing, pffft!

    I want Gylfi, smash, every time, he’s an awkaward fit, but he could play in false 9, Ozil, Alexis to his preferred position, he enjoys the game more, but has found adapting his game is beneficial, he’s playing the best football of his life, at BArca it was easy and he never got game time. He is learning to structure his game, he’s changed since last season and he did the COpa, but at a cost and has to realise that th balance is between what the team, he and Wenger expect. He’s graduating, our past players and Captain tell you “he makes men”. He learns, but what the new guard have, he has in experience ten times over, bitter experience.

  12. With Sunderland in freefall Pullis shows thaat his way works, but with him seemingly commiting to the non violence in football script, it is no flash in the pan.

    Bournemouth succumbing to the eagues demands against a Watford side that seems to reinforce the draw of the Capital. Borough appear equal to the task for at least the next 2 years, but Bilic with health restored to his team for the most part, will hope that they can maintain their lead over the course of the game.

    Stoke are showing that nothing about a Mark Hughes Team lacks graft and discipline, you are thus far witnessing a defensive masterclass from a totally synced back line. Aunoutovic’s early Clatenburg Yellow a so far distan memory. Even the charm of their goal is reinforced by some excellent goal keeping.

    Meanwhile the deadlock is maintianed at Palace where Everton are also quietly relenting to the strains. Can Big Sam win the Boer war, or will Ronald rain on hi parade?!

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